Happy Friday! The end of the work week is always a good day for baseball, and there’s a sizable slate to choose from this evening. There are 15 games currently on the docket, and each one starts at 6:20 p.m. ET or later. The weather report also looks pretty good, with only the game between the White Sox and Rockies in any sort of jeopardy.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite bets for Friday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Friday, June 28

San Francisco Giants ML vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-106; FanDuel)

Don’t look now, but here come the Dodgers. They were still a very good baseball team early in the season, but they didn’t look like the juggernaut they were expected to be. However, they’ve rattled off a 15-8 record during the month of June, and they’re now just 2.5 games behind the Phillies for the best record in the NL. It should surprise no one if they ultimately rebound to finish with another 100+ wins and the best record in the league.

However, the Dodgers still have some concerns. Their lineup is extremely top-heavy, and their pitching has had to deal with plenty of uncertainty. The latter should improve as they get healthier, but outside of Tyler Glasnow, it’s hard to get too excited about most of their starters.

That includes Friday’s starter. Landon Knack has a 2.10 ERA across his first five starts, but his advanced metrics suggest he’s been fortunate. He’s thrived due to a paltry .193 BABIP and a 91.7% strand rate, both of which scream regression.

The Giants will have one of the best starters in the NL on the bump in Logan Webb, and he’s been nearly unhittable in San Francisco. He owns a 2.06 ERA and 2.85 FIP at home, giving the Giants a significant advantage on the bump.

Ultimately, it’s tough to pass up on the Giants as small favorites with such a sizable pitching advantage.

Minnesota Twins-Seattle Mariners Under 7.0 (+100; DraftKings)

This stands out as one of the better pitching matchups on Friday’s slate. The Mariners will send Logan Gilbert to the bump, who should get some down-ballot consideration in the AL Cy Young race. He’s pitched to a 2.71 ERA with solid strikeout metrics, and he has some of the nastiest offerings in the league. He ranks sixth among qualified pitchers in terms of Stuff+, with his slider grading out as the second-best in that cohort.

Bailey Ober hasn’t been quite as impressive for the Twins, but his 3.79 xERA still makes him an above-average starter. He’s been hot recently, posting a 3.60 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate during the month of June. Ober should be able to keep the good times rolling against the Mariners, who have been a slightly below-average offense against right-handers this season.

There has been plenty of sharp action on the under, driving it down from 7.5 to 7.0 across the industry. I’m still willing to play the under at the worse number as long as you can get it at -105 or better.

More MLB Bets for Friday, June 28

Mets ML vs. Astros (-106)

Sometimes, you just have to trust the vibes. No team has better vibes at the moment than the Mets. Grimace, service dogs, and Latin pop music have combined to give the Mets the best clubhouse in baseball at the moment. They’ve been pretty good on the field, too, winning 15 of their past 19 games. I’m riding this train until the wheels fall off.

Colin Rea Under 4.5 strikeouts (+110)

The Brewers have been a big surprise this season, largely due to their pitching. That includes Colin Rea, who has posted a 3.62 ERA across 82 innings. However, his xERA is nearly two full runs higher, and he’s one of the worst strikeout pitchers in baseball. His strikeout rate ranks in the ninth percentile, while his Whiff rate is in the third. The Cubs are a good matchup for strikeouts – they have the sixth-highest strikeout rate vs. right-handers – but Rea has minimal upside in even the best spots. I’m happy to take an under on 4.5 at better than even money.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 3-1 (+1.06 units)
  • Season: 147-153-7 (-11.26 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.