After a light day on Thursday, we have a full slate of action on the diamond on Friday. All 30 teams are scheduled to take the field, with each game starting at 6:40 p.m. ET or later. That said, there are some weather concerns, with the game in Chicago and the game in St. Louis looking particularly dicey.
Let’s dive into some of my favorite betting options for Friday’s slate.
Top MLB Picks for May 24
Angels F5 ML vs. Guardians (-125; BetMGM)
Patrick Sandoval is another pitcher who appears undervalued at the moment. His ERA sits at just 4.59, but he’s posted a subpar .351 BABIP and a 64.1% strand rate. Both of those numbers are well above his career norms, so he should see a bit more good fortune moving forward.
If that happens, Sandoval’s numbers should see a solid spike. His xERA is nearly a full run lower than his actual mark (3.61), while he’s posted solid strikeout and Statcast numbers. His barrel rate puts him in the 83rd percentile, while his groundball rate ranks in the 71st.
Sandoval has already started to see things turn around, racking up six scoreless innings vs. the Rangers in his last outing. The Guardians are a tough matchup – they’re sixth in wRC+ vs. left-handers this season – but if Sandoval can shut down the Rangers, he can follow suit vs. Cleveland.
Once this game gets to the bullpens, the Guardians will have a clear advantage. They have the best bullpen ERA in baseball, while the Angels have the third-worst. We’ll have to pay a premium to get just the first five innings, but it’s worth it in this spot.
Mets ML vs. Giants (-142; FanDuel)
I don’t blame you if you want nothing to do with the Mets at the moment. They’re coming off a 2-6 road trip, dropping them to a season-worst seven games under .500. Their bullpen – which had been dominant in the early season – has started to fall apart, with Edwin Diaz failing to convert his last three save opportunities. Their top batters haven’t hit all season, so there’s not much to like about this team at the moment.
However, Christian Scott is one reason for Mets fans to get excited. The young hurler has looked the part in his three MLB outings. He’s pitched to a 3.14 xERA, and his stuff is as good as advertised. His strikeout metrics are excellent, and he’s also managed to limit hard contact. He ranks in the 74th percentile for hard-hit rate and 87th percentile for barrel rate, so opposing batters have not squared him up very often.
Scott’s traditional metrics aren’t quite as impressive, but it’s easy to chalk that up to bad fortune. Despite generating plenty of soft contact, opposing batters have still managed a .340 BABIP. That number should regress moving forward, making this an excellent buy-low opportunity for Scott and the Mets. Kyle Harrison has been significantly worse than Scott in basically every metric, so -142 is a solid price tag.
More MLB Bets for Friday, May 24
Padres ML vs. Yankees (+102)
Yu Darvish has had a renaissance in 2024. After struggling in 2023, he’s bounced back with an elite 2.08 ERA through his first nine starts this season. His 2.81 xERA is also excellent, while his barrel rate ranks in the 89th percentile. The Yankees’ offense is red-hot at the moment, but I like Darvish’s chances of keeping them at bay. Carlos Rodon is a pitcher I expect significant regression from (3.27 ERA; 4.90 xERA), so this is a great time to target San Diego.
Justin Verlander Under 6.5 strikeouts (-160)
Justin Verlander is a sure-fire first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, but at 41 years old, he’s clearly not in his prime. His strikeout metrics have taken a nosedive in 2024, with his 18.7% strikeout rate ranking in the 27th percentile. Verlander has had more than 6.5 strikeouts in just two of six outings, and he’s gone way under in the other four. The A’s are a good matchup – they have the third-highest strikeout rate vs. right-handers – but this number is based more on Verlander’s reputation than his actual skillset.
2024 MLB Bets Record
- Yesterday: 2-2 (-0.04 units)
- Season: 98-113-6 (-15.25 units)
All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.
