The start of a new week brings about the start of some new baseball series. We’ll have a truncated slate on Monday, but there are still seven games to choose from. Two of the contests will take place in the afternoon, while the other five have a first pitch scheduled for this evening.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite betting options for Monday’s MLB slate.

MLB BETS TODAY – PICKS FOR MONDAY, JULY 8

St. Louis Cardinals ML at Washington Nationals (-105; Caesars)

Just when you think the Cardinals are dead, they come storming back to life. They got off to a dreadful start, sitting at nine games under .500 in early May. They’ve come storming back since then, and they’re now 47-42 and sitting in a playoff spot in the National League. There’s a long way to go, but the Cardinals are poised for their fifth trip to the postseason in the past six years.

The Cardinals will send Miles Mikolas to the mound on Monday, who is a pitcher I’ve been fading for most of the year. His ERA sits above 5.00, while his xERA isn’t much better at 4.22.

However, Mikolas has improved as the season has progressed. He had a respectable 3.78 FIP in June, and he had a 1.84 FIP in his first start in July. The Nationals are merely 16th in wRC+ vs. right-handers, so I like his chances for another good start on Monday.

Mitchell Parker looks pretty similar to Mikolas on paper (4.08 xERA), but I like the Cardinals’ offense better. They haven’t fared well against left-handers this season, but their lineup is loaded with talented right-handed hitters. They should improve in that split over the second half of the year.

Detroit Tigers F5 ML vs. Cleveland Guardians (+112; FanDuel)

Just like on Sunday, I’m looking to fade the Guardians starting pitcher but avoid their elite bullpen. That worked out perfectly with the Giants, so I’m going back to the well with the Tigers.

Gavin Williams will make his second start of the year for Cleveland, and things couldn’t have gone much worse in the first. He allowed five runs in just four innings, and his xERA checked in a 5.34. Most of his advanced metrics were also terrible, so I’m not expecting a ton of progression.

Keider Montero hasn’t been any better for the Tigers, but he at least has the benefit of being one of the Tigers’ top prospects. He throws hard and has 15 strikeouts in 15 innings, so he’s clearly the more promising pitcher. Getting the Tigers as underdogs over the first five innings makes a lot of sense in Detroit.

MORE MLB BETS FOR MONDAY, JULY 8

Braves-Diamondbacks Under 7.5 runs (+100)

The Braves have been a prime under target over the past handful of weeks. Their pitching staff remains excellent, while their offense has underperformed. They’ll have one of their best starters on the mound Monday in Chris Sale, whose 2.57 xERA puts him in the 96th percentile. Yilber Diaz will make his MLB debut for the Diamondbacks, who has averaged more than 12 strikeouts per nine innings in the minors this season. These offenses are 15th and 16th in wRC+ over the past 30 days, so I’m expecting another low-scoring affair. 

Chris Paddack Over 3.5 strikeouts (-125)

Chris Paddack had a rough June, allowing 15 earned runs across his four starts. He also landed on the IL with shoulder fatigue, so his spot in the rotation is very much in jeopardy. He’s going to get at least one more opportunity, and it couldn’t come in a much better spot. He’ll square off with the White Sox, who have the 10th-highest strikeout rate against right-handers. They’re also dead last in wRC+, so Paddack is in an amazing position for success.

2024 MLB BETS RECORD

  • Yesterday: 2-2 (+0.23 units)
  • Season: 165-170-8 (-11.305 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.