The start of a new week brings the start of a bunch of new MLB series. We’ll have seven games to choose from on Monday, with each contest starting at 6:40 p.m. ET or later. That’s not the biggest slate in the world, but it still gives us some opportunities to look for value in the betting market.

We’ve been on a bit of a heater of late, shaving nearly 10 units off our season-long deficit over the past few weeks. We’ve still got a lot of work to do, but it’s nice to see that we’re back on track and trending in the right direction. Baseball is a long season, so we’ve got plenty of time to get back into the black.

Let’s dive into four of my favorite options for Monday’s MLB slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Monday, June 10

Tampa Bay Rays ML vs. Baltimore Orioles (+120; DraftKings)

Ryan Pepiot was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers, and he has the potential to be one of the best pitchers in baseball in the near future. He has five offerings that grade out as above average in Stuff+, and he ranks ninth in Stuff+ since returning from an injury on May 22. Ultimately, Pepiot’s 2.88 xERA is more than a full run lower than his actual mark (3.96).

He’ll be opposed by Corbin Burnes, who is obviously an outstanding pitcher in his own right. Burnes has a 2.75 xERA, and his Statcast and strikeout metrics are all elite. This could be a world-class pitcher’s duel.

The Orioles have been the significantly better offense this season, but the Rays have underperformed expectations by a wide margin. They were one of the best teams in baseball against right-handers in 2023, so they could find themselves as the season progresses. With the Rays also having the benefit of home-field advantage, +120 feels a bit too thin.

The sharps seem to agree, with the pros driving this number down from +144 at opening to +120 currently. I’d lock in that number while you still can.

Toronto Blue Jays-Milwaukee Brewers Under 8.0 (-105; Caesars)

Both of these teams have gotten solid performances from their starting pitchers of late, so both teams will have relatively fresh bullpens heading into this contest. That’s a particularly big deal for the Brewers, who have the sixth-best bullpen ERA this season.

Both of these starters have also been effective at keeping runs off the scoreboard. Jose Berrios has a 2.80 ERA for the Blue Jays, while Colin Rea is at 3.53 for the Brewers. They could both see some regression moving forward, but neither of these offenses is tearing the cover off the ball at the moment. The Blue Jays have also suffered from a serious lack of power all season, ranking 17th in ISO against right-handers.

This is another spot that has already seen some line movement, with the total dropping from 8.5 to 8.0. The current line is still playable at anything better than -115.

More MLB Bets for Monday, June 10

A’s ML at Padres (+185)

Let’s go hunting for a big dog. The A’s offense has been not that bad this season, ranking just slightly below average against right-handed pitching. The bigger issue has been their pitching, but they’ll have a quality prospect on the bump Monday in Joey Estes. Estes has pitched to a 3.10 xERA through his five starts this season, and his WHIP sits below 1.00. The Padres will still have the advantage with Dylan Cease on the mound, but this matchup is a lot closer than the current odds suggest. 

Dakota Hudson Under 3.5 strikeouts (-110)

Hudson is unequivocally one of the worst strikeout pitchers in baseball. His strikeout rate ranks in the fourth percentile, and he’s had more than 3.5 strikeouts in just four of his 12 starts. He did get to four punchouts in his last outing – snapping a string of six straight unders – but that was against the Reds. They have the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handers, so the Twins will be a slightly tougher matchup (14th). Anytime I can get under four strikeouts for Hudson at a reasonable price tag, I’m going to be interested.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 2-2 (-0.12 units)
  • Season: 130-136-6 (-10.795 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.