After a quiet week at Fantasy Life, I’m ready to get back to the grind on Monday. We had made up a bunch of ground on our season-long deficit before our break, and I’m optimistic we can keep things headed in the right direction.

We’re nearing the first real checkpoint of the MLB season, with the All-Star break approximately three weeks away. There is still a ton of congestion in the standings, particularly for the Wild Cards. Seven teams are separated by 6.5 games in the American League, while nine teams are within 3.0 games of each other in the NL. Basically, as long as your team isn’t the Marlins, White Sox, Rockies, A’s, or Angels, you can convince yourself that you’re still in the playoff hunt.

Mondays are typically a lighter day for the MLB, but we have a solid 12 games to choose from this Monday. Let’s dive into some of my favorite betting options.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Monday, June 24

Chicago White Sox F5 ML vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-120; BetMGM)

There has not been much to get excited about in the south side of Chicago, but Garrett Crochet has been the exception. He’s looked the part of an ace pitcher this season, racking up elite strikeout numbers while posting a 2.43 xERA. If not for his team being so bad, he’d be among the favorites for AL Cy Young.

The Dodgers have been the best offense in baseball against southpaws this season, but they’re not nearly as intimidating without Mookie Betts. He owns a 147 wRC+ against left-handers this season, and without him, their already shallow lineup becomes even more top-heavy. As long as he can limit the damage against their top four hitters, he should be able to dominate the bottom five.

On the other side, the Dodgers will hand the ball to arguably their worst starter. James Paxton has survived for most of the year, but his advanced metrics suggest he’s been extremely fortunate. His offerings remain well below average, with his Stuff+ checking in at just 75 for the year. That ranks 112th out of 114 pitchers with at least 60 innings.

The White Sox have also fared well against southpaws of late. They’re 10th in wRC+ in that split over the past 14 days, so this is as good a spot as any to target them. It feels weird to back them as slight favorites vs. the Dodgers, but it’s warranted in this matchup.

Cincinnati Reds F5 ML vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-118; FanDuel)

The Pirates are no longer cellar dwellers in the NL Central, largely due to their exciting young pitching staff. Paul Skenes and Jared Jones are already among the best pitchers in baseball, which gives Pirates’ fans their first taste of optimism in years.

However, this team still has some major issues. The biggest remains their inability to hit right-handed pitching. They’re 29th in wRC+ in that split this season, with only the lowly White Sox faring worse.

The team also can’t pitch Skenes or Jones in every contest. They’ll send Bailey Falter to the mound on Monday, and he’s a prime regression candidate moving forward. His xERA is nearly 1.5 runs higher than his actual mark (5.12 vs. 3.74), and he’s thrived due to an unsustainable .242 BABIP. Falter doesn’t excel from a Statcast perspective, so it’s hard to imagine his batted-ball success continuing.

The Reds’ offense is in far better shape on Monday, with the team ranking 16th in wRC+ vs. southpaws. They’ll also have the edge on the bump, with Carson Spiers (3.20 xERA; 3.67 xERA) grading out as the superior pitcher basically across the board. Getting them at -118 for the first five innings stands out as an excellent value.

More MLB Bets for Monday, June 24

Royals F5 ML vs. Marlins (-240)

One of the biggest pieces of wisdom I try to share with bettors is that laying juice doesn’t automatically make a bet a bad value. Case in point: -240 translates to an implied probability of 70.6%, but I think the Royals should be closer to 80% on the first-five moneyline on Monday. They’ll have a Cy Young candidate on the mound in Cole Ragans, while Roddery Munoz is clearly outclassed at the MLB level. He was not expected to start games for the Marlins this season, and he’s responded with a 7.00 xERA. This is a monster mismatch.

Patrick Corbin Under 3.5 strikeouts (-136)

Typically, betting on Patrick Corbin not to find success on the mound is a good idea. He’s near the bottom of the league in basically every statistical category: His xERA (6.66), xBA (.322), hard-hit rate (48.9%), and strikeout rate (15.2%) all rate in the ninth percentile or worse. Corbin is simply here to eat innings at this point, and he’s going to have a whale of a time racking up strikeouts vs. the Padres. They have the fourth-lowest strikeout rate vs. southpaws, so I like the under on 3.5 for Corbin.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Sunday: 1-3 (-1.065 units)
  • Season: 138-143-6 (-11.705 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.