Monday brings about the start of a new week for baseball. We’ll have some new series to dissect, with eight contests taking place Monday evening. Each game will start at 6:40 p.m. ET or later.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite betting options for Monday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Monday, June 3

New York Mets F5 ML at Washington Nationals (-104; FanDuel)

Betting on the Mets is never easy. Their bullpen suffered another blown save on Sunday, turning a potential one-run win into a one-run loss. They continue to play in close games, with the vast majority of their games being decided by two runs or fewer. That provides some optimism for the team moving forward, but they’re going to need their bullpen to revert to early-season form.

For Monday, I’m looking to avoid the Mets' volatile bullpen and focus instead on the first five innings. They’ll send Tylor Megill to the bump, who looks like one of the most undervalued starters in baseball at the moment. Megill struggled to a 4.70 ERA in 2023, but he completely revamped his arsenal in the offseason. He added a cutter and a splitter to his repertoire, and the early results have been promising. Megill boasts a career-best 11.25 K/9 through his first three starts, and his ERA dipped to 1.69 after seven scoreless innings vs. the Dodgers in his last outing.

The Nationals will turn to MacKenzie Gore, who is an excellent pitcher in his own right. Gore has a 2.91 ERA and a 3.51 xERA this season, so both pitchers have the potential for success on any given night.

You could certainly consider the under in this spot, but I prefer the Mets from an offensive standpoint. New York ranks 13th in wRC+ vs. left-handers this season (104), while the Nationals are merely 23rd in wRC+ vs. right-handers (92). Ultimately, I like their chances vs. Gore more than the Nationals against Megill.

Detroit Tigers-Texas Rangers Under 7.5 runs (-115; BetMGM)

The best pitching matchup on the slate will take place in Arlington. The Tigers will send their ace to the bump in Tarik Skubal, and the Rangers will counter with Nate Eovaldi.

Skubal has emerged as the frontrunner for the AL Cy Young Award, and he’s excelled in every category across the board. His 2.42 xERA puts him in the 95th percentile, and he’s also among the best in the business in terms of strikeouts (31.3% K rate) and batted-ball data (29.9% hard-hit rate). Skubal is coming off another gem in his last outing, pitching seven scoreless innings against a Pirates’ squad that typically fares pretty well against southpaws.

Eovaldi hasn’t been quite as good as Skubal this season, but his 2.84 ERA is still excellent. He should have no problems mowing down a Tigers’ lineup that was merely 27th in wRC+ against right-handers in 2023.

It’’s hard to imagine a scenario where both of these pitchers surrender more than a couple of runs. As long as the bullpens don’t implode, Under 7.5 runs feels like a likely outcome.

More MLB Bets for Monday, June 3

Padres ML at Angels (-138)

Tyler Anderson cannot continue to run this pure all season. His 2.47 ERA is more than two full runs lower than his expected mark (4.62), and he’s benefited from a .211 BABIP and an 87.0% strand rate. Both of those figures are well above his career norms and scream regression moving forward. Matt Waldron is the better pitcher, and the Padres are also the significantly better offensive squad. 

Justin Verlander Under 6.5 strikeouts (-124)

Verlander continues to pitch better than you’d expect for a 41-year-old, but his strikeout metrics have taken a plunge. His 22.9% strikeout rate ranks in the 51st percentile, down significantly from his 35.4% mark back in 2019. He does have nine punchouts in back-to-back starts, but those have come against two strikeout-prone teams in the Mariners and A’s. The Cardinals are a slightly tougher matchup, so this seems like a good spot to bet on some regression.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 2-2 (+0.15 units)
  • Season: 115-127-6 (-13.615 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.