Baseball may not be America’s favorite sport anymore, but it will always be America’s pastime. The MLB dates back to the 1800s, and it’s impossible to talk about the country’s history without mentioning baseball. From guys like Ted Williams, Joe Dimaggio, and Stan Musial fighting in World War II to Jackie Robinson breaking the color barrier, baseball intertwines itself in American history unlike any of the other major sports.

On a day like Memorial Day, baseball feels even more American. To honor our country’s fallen soldiers, Major League Baseball will offer up a larger slate than usual. The action gets underway with the Orioles hosting the Red Sox at 1:05 p.m. ET and wraps up with the Mariners vs. the Astros at 9:40. Eight games will take place in between, with each contest paying tribute to the soldiers who gave everything for our country.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite bets for Monday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Monday, May 27

Red Sox ML at Orioles (+140; BetMGM)

The Red Sox have exceeded expectations to start the year, largely due to the success of their young pitching staff. That includes Cooper Criswell. Not much was expected out of Criswell in 2024, especially after pitching to a 5.73 ERA out of the bullpen last year. However, he’s been outstanding to start the new year.

Criswell has posted a 2.86 ERA across 34.2 innings, and his 3.35 xERA suggests he’s been as good as advertised. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff – his fastball velocity ranks in the second percentile – but he makes up for it in other ways. He’s one of the best control pitchers in baseball, posting a 5.6% walk rate and 105 Location+, and his 49.0% groundball rate ranks in the 75th percentile.

I give Criswell the edge over Orioles’ starter Cole Irvin. His 3.15 ERA looks similar on the surface, but his 4.05 xERA looks significantly worse. His other advanced metrics are also subpar, so he’s a prime regression candidate moving forward.

These two offenses have been pretty even in their current splits – the Orioles have a 99 wRC+ vs. right-handers, the Red Sox 97 vs. southpaws – so I’m happy to roll the dice with the Red Sox as solid underdogs.

Reds ML vs. Cardinals (-124; FanDuel)

Lance Lynn has had a bit of a renaissance for the Cardinals in 2024. After pitching to a 5.73 ERA last season, he’s dropped that figure to 3.68 through 10 starts with the Red Birds.

Still, I’m skeptical that his success will continue. His xERA sits at 4.19, and he doesn’t stand out in any particular metric. In terms of Pitching+, Lynn ranks 80th out of 83 qualified starters.

I’m much more bullish on Nick Lodolo. Lodolo missed nearly all of last season due to injury, but he posted a 3.66 ERA as a rookie in 2022. He’s picked up right where he left off in 2024, posting a 3.34 ERA while striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings.

The Cardinals have historically been a team that has fared better against left-handed pitchers, but that has not been the case in 2024. They’re merely 27th in wRC+ in that split, with past stalwarts like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado starting to show their age.

Lodolo is a clear buy target at the moment, and this is a great matchup to buy him in. I like this up to -140.

More MLB Bets for Monday, May 27

Brewers ML vs. Cubs (-106)

The Brewers are like a great TV show without a leading actor; the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. They just keep finding ways to win ballgames. They’ll have another chance to pick up a win vs. a slumping Justin Steele on Monday. Steele was excellent for the Cubs in 2023, but he has not looked the same this season. He’s posted a 5.68 ERA across five outings, and he ranks in the 11th percentile in hard-hit rate. Robert Gasser has a 2.85 xERA through three starts with the Brewers, and he entered the year as one of their top prospects.

Dodgers-Mets F5 Under 4.5 (-102)

The Mets finally managed to end their losing streak on Sunday, but it wasn’t due to their offense. They managed just one run through the first eight innings before scoring three off Tyler Rogers in the ninth. I’m not expecting much from the Mets vs. Gavin Stone, who has excelled at limiting hard contact this season. Tylor Megill has also shown improvement on the bump, so I think he can keep the Dodgers’ potent offense at bay.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Saturday: 2-2 (-0.08 units)
  • Season: 100-115-6 (-17.96 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.