With the NBA and NHL playoffs both off on Sunday, it’s up to baseball to carry the sports calendar. Fortunately, the MLB is offering up a 16 games slate spread out across the entire day. Nine games will start at 2:10 p.m. ET or earlier, followed by a five-game afternoon slate. Finally, the Yankees and Red Sox will renew one of the best rivalries in sports on Sunday Night Baseball, as well as Game 2 of the doubleheader between the A’s and Twins.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite bets for Sunday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Sunday, June 16

Philadelphia Phillies-Baltimore Orioles F5 Under 3.5 runs (-105; BetMGM)

I lost an under with these two squads in heartbreaking fashion on Friday, with the game going over in the 11th after ending nine innings at 2-2. I’ve lost a handful of unders that way this season, which is why I prefer the F5 under with good starters on the bump.

That’s clearly the case on Sunday, with Zach Wheeler facing off with Corbin Burnes. These are two of the five best pitchers in baseball no matter how you slice it. Both starters have an xERA of 2.80 or better, and they possess some of the best strikeout and Statcast numbers in baseball. In terms of Pitching+, Burnes ranks second among qualified starters, while Wheeler isn’t far behind in third.

Both of these teams can hit, but the pitchers have had the upper hand in this series so far. I expect these two monsters to follow suit on Sunday.

Tampa Bay Rays ML at Atlanta Braves (+100; DraftKings)

Is it time to panic for the Braves? Probably not, but they’re certainly not feeling as good about themselves as they were to start the year. Losing Ronald Acuna Jr. obviously hurts, but the bigger issues have been to the pitching staff. Without Spencer Strider, this team has gone from one of the best staffs in the league to one with serious question marks.

They’re relying on prospects to fill the backend of the rotation, including Sunday’s starter Hurston Waldrep. He’s the team’s No. 2 prospect overall, but he certainly didn’t look the part in his first MLB start. He allowed seven earned runs in less than four innings, so he’s far from a sure thing at this point.

Waldrep was undoubtedly unlucky in that outing, but his xERA was still a disappointing 4.90. I’d much rather take my chances with Zach Eflin. He was a breakout star for the Rays last year, and while he hasn’t been as good this season, he’s due for some positive regression. He remains one of the best control pitchers in baseball, ranking in the 99th percentile in walk rate and first in Location+ among starters with at least 60 innings.

He gives the Rays a serious advantage on the bump, and the Braves’ offense doesn’t look nearly as potent as it did a month ago. They’re merely 25th in wRC+ against right-handers over the past 30 days, so I love this spot for Eflin and the Rays.

More MLB Bets for Sunday, June 16

Padres-Mets Under 7.5 runs (-108)

The Mets have quietly won eight of their past 10 games, and they’ve limited the Padres to two total runs in the first two games of this series. Tylor Megill will get the ball on Sunday, and he has a career-best 28.8% strikeout rate after re-tooling his arsenal in the offseason. I expect him to keep the Padres’ offense at bay on Sunday, and Dylan Cease should do the same to the Mets. New York has been mediocre against right-handers this season – they’re 15th in wRC+ – and Cease is one of the best strikeout arms in baseball.

Brewers F5 Over 2.5 runs vs. Reds (+100)

I’m a fan of this matchup for the Brewers on Sunday. They’ll square off with Frankie Montas, who has come crashing back to reality after a strong start to the year. His xERA has dipped all the way to 4.64, and he ranks in the 32nd percentile or worse in walk rate, hard-hit rate, and strikeout rate. The Brewers are fourth in wRC+ vs. right-handers, so they can definitely do some damage in this spot.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Friday: 0-4 (-2.57 units)
  • Season: 138-143-6 (-10.64 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.