We have officially made it to the weekend, and we’re rewarded with a sizable MLB slate. All 30 teams are scheduled to take the field, with most of the action coming in the late afternoon. 11 contests are slated for a first pitch between 2:10 and 4:10 p.m. ET, followed by a four-game night slate.

Let's dive into some of my favorite betting options for Saturday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Saturday, June 29

Chicago Cubs ML at Milwaukee Brewers (+100; BetMGM)

The Brewers were one of my teams during the preseason, and they have not disappointed through the first half. They currently own a 6.5-game lead over the Cardinals in the NL Central, and they’re sixth in the league in run differential.

However, they’ll have one of their weaker arms on the mound Saturday in Tobias Myers. Myers has had plenty of success this season (3.12 ERA), but a lot of it has been smoke and mirrors. He’s thrived due to a .246 BABIP and an 85.8% strand rate, both of which are unsustainable long-term. His xERA is nearly a full run higher than his actual mark, while his FIP checks in at 4.40.

Meanwhile, the Cubs will hand the ball to the extremely reliable Justin Steele. Steele owns a 3.08 ERA and a 3.27 xERA this season, which are in line with his marks from the past two years. He’ll probably never win a Cy Young award, but he’s a really dependable pitcher who gets the job done more times than not.

The Brewers have also had their struggles against left-handers this season, ranking merely 20th in wRC+ in that split. I’m certainly not worried about the Brewers moving forward, but this seems like a good spot to fade them.

New York Mets ML vs. Houston Astros (-104; FanDuel)

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The vibes are immaculate in the Mets clubhouse at the moment, and they’ve now rattled off 16 wins over their last 20 games. That’s seen them make a massive move up the standings, and they’re tied with the Cardinals in the loss column for the final NL Wild Card spot. The Mets are leading the Wild Card pack in terms of run differential, so they’re a solid bet to make the playoffs at this point (+170; Caesars).

I like the Mets to pick up another win on Saturday. They’re taking on Framber Valdez, who has been simply an average pitcher this season. He generates more groundballs than nearly every pitcher in baseball, but his strikeout, walk, and hard-hit numbers have all declined since his 2022 breakout.

The Mets’ offense has also been one of the best in baseball against left-handed pitchers. They’re fourth in wRC+ vs. southpaws, and they’ve increased their wRC+ to 166 over the past 14 days. With most of their best bats faring better against southpaws – Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and J.D. Martinez – there are reasons to believe in their continued success.

On the mound, the Mets will turn to Tylor Megill. Megill has racked up strikeouts at an elite rate this season after overhauling his pitch mix during the offseason. He’s far from an ace, but he’s better than what his current metrics would suggest. I think he’s at least comparable to Valdez, and that’s enough to back the Mets with the way their offense has been rolling.

More MLB Bets for Saturday, June 29

Pirates F5 ML at Braves (+110)

Betting against the Braves is always scary, but the Pirates have a lot of factors working in their favor on Saturday. The biggest is that they’ll get to send Paul Skenes to the bump. Skenes has wasted little time establishing himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball, pitching to a 2.14 ERA and 2.65 xERA across eight starts. The Pirates will also be on the positive side of their splits vs. Max Fried. They’re 28th in wRC+ vs. right-handers, but they jump up to 18th vs. southpaws. I’ll take my chances with Skenes and the Buccos over the first five innings.

Zac Gallen Over 5.5 strikeouts (+135)

It has not been a good season for the Diamondbacks, who have struggled to repeat their success from last season. That applies to their ace pitcher as well. Zac Gallen finished third in the NL Cy Young voting last year, but most of his advanced metrics are down in 2024. However, he remains a strong strikeout pitcher. His 25.8% strikeout rate puts him in the 73rd percentile, and he should be able to cut through the A’s lineup on Saturday. They have the second-highest strikeout rate against right-handers this season, and Gallen has historically done his best work at home.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 3-1 (+1.0 units)
  • Season: 150-154-7 (-10.26 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.