It’s the final day of the unofficial first half of the MLB season. The league will head into the All-Star break on Monday, kicking things off with the Home Run Derby. The All-Star game will follow on Tuesday, and the league will get back to regularly scheduled games on Friday.

As for Sunday, we’ll get off to an early start. The action commences with Yankees-Orioles at 11:35 a.m. ET, and the winner will take sole possession of first place in the AL East. After that, a 10-game afternoon slate will commence at 1:35 p.m. ET, followed by a four-game afternoon slate. There is no Sunday Night Baseball, with the league giving each team the night off before the break.

Let’s dive into four of my favorite bets for Sunday’s slate.

MLB BETS TODAY – PICKS FOR SUNDAY, JULY 14

Washington Nationals F5 ML at Milwaukee Brewers (+124; DraftKings)

The Brewers have had an outstanding first half, currently occupying a 4.0-game lead over the Cardinals in the NL Central. They don’t excel in any one area – 10th in runs scored, eighth in runs allowed – but they do everything just good enough. Only time will tell if they hold on to win the division, but they’re on pace to fly past their preseason win total of 76.5.

However, the Brewers will have one of their weakest starters on the bump on Sunday. Colin Rea owns a 3.81 ERA this season, but his advanced metrics suggest he’s due for regression. His xERA is above 5.00, while he grades out as well below average from a strikeout and Statcast perspective.

On the other side, Jake Irvin has become a solid mid-rotation starter. His ERA checks in at 3.13, and unlike Rea, he has the advanced metrics to support it. Milwaukee has dipped to 21st in wRC+ against right-handers over the past 30 days, so I expect Irvin’s success to continue.

The Brewers do have an excellent bullpen, so my preference here is the first five innings. We can get the first five price at a pretty similar number to the full game moneyline, so that’s the superior value.

Toronto Blue Jays ML at Arizona Diamondbacks (+135; Caesars)

The Diamondbacks are sizable favorites in this matchup, largely due to Zac Gallen getting the start. Gallen finished third in NL Cy Young voting last season, so he has the reputation of being an ace pitcher.

That said, Gallen has not been the same pitcher this season that he’s been in the past. His xERA sits at 4.08, while his Statcast data is among the worst in baseball. He ranks in the fourth percentile in hard-hit rate, and he’s in the second percentile in average exit velocity.

Yusei Kikuchi actually has a superior xERA, and he’s excelled from a strikeout and walk perspective. He’s fanned 111 batters while walking just 23, which is an elite combination.

The Diamondbacks have been the better team offensively, but the gap in the marketplace is a lot larger than the pitching matchup suggests. I’ll take a flyer on the underdog.

MORE MLB BETS FOR SUNDAY, JULY 14

Padres Under 2.5 runs vs. Braves (+114)

Chris Sale is back and better than ever. After a couple of lost seasons to end his Red Sox’s tenure, he’s back to being a Cy Young contender in his first year with the Braves. He ranks in the 95th percentile or better in xERA, strikeout rate, and average exit velocity, so you’d be hard-pressed to find a better starter at the moment. The Padres are merely 15th in wRC+ vs. left-handers this season, so I’m expecting another dominant performance.

Cubs ML at Cardinals (+114)

The Cardinals have been on a roll recently, but Miles Mikolas remains a pitcher I’m looking to fade. He’s pitched a bit better of late, but he still remains below average in most major pitching categories. Conversely, Jameson Taillon owns a 2.99 ERA and a 3.55 xERA. It’s scary to fade a team as hot as the Cardinals at the moment, but +114 is too good of a price tag to pass up.

2024 MLB BETS RECORD

  • Yesterday: 2-0 w/ two pending (+1.10 units)
  • Season: 175-180-9 (-11.83 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.