We’re nearly at the end of another week, and the MLB All-Star break is right around the corner. I’m technically on vacation this week, but the grind does not stop. We only have so many opportunities left before a forced hiatus, so you better believe I’m looking to take advantage.

As usual, Sunday’s MLB action gets started early. Nine games will start at 2:35 p.m. ET or earlier, followed by a five-game slate in the late afternoon. Things wrap up with a Sunday Night Baseball showdown between two of the biggest rivals in all of sports.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite betting options for Sunday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Sunday, July 7

Oakland Athletics ML vs. Baltimore Orioles (+165; BetMGM)

Let’s look at another big dog with the Athletics. They’re priced even more favorably than the Phillies, and they’ll have the benefit of playing at home. Of course, the A’s aren’t nearly as good as the Phillies, while the Orioles are arguably the best team in the American League.

This price tag would be more than fair in some circumstances, but not with Mitch Spence on the bump for Oakland. Spence has been one of their most consistent pitchers this season, posting a 3.61 xERA across 73.2 innings between the rotation and bullpen. He excels at limiting the free passes and generating groundballs, which is a nice combination.

Conversely, Grayson Rodriguez has some red flags in his profile. The former top prospect has a respectable 3.45 ERA, but his xERA is nearly a full run higher. His Statcast data is mediocre, so he has not developed into the ace that he was expected to be.

The A’s offense has some flaws, but the pitching matchup here is a lot closer than the current odds suggest. +165 translates to an implied probability of just 37.74%, and I think the A’s can win at a greater frequency than that.

Philadelphia Phillies ML at Atlanta Braves (+152; FanDuel)

It’s rare that you get to target a team as good as the Phillies as underdogs. It’s even rarer when you can get that team at greater than +150, but that’s the case in Sunday’s matchup vs. the Braves.

The Braves will send Reynaldo Lopez to the bump, who has emerged as a Cy Young candidate in his first year in Atlanta. He owns a 1.83 ERA across 15 starts while striking out more than 9.3 batters per nine innings.

However, the advanced metrics suggest Lopez has been insanely fortunate. His strand rate is just shy of 88%, while merely 6.5% of his fly balls allowed have turned into home runs. That’s well below average, and that’s a big deal for a pitcher with a paltry 35.5% groundball rate. He also ranks in the 21st percentile or worse in barrel rate and hard-hit rate, so there’s no reason why his HR rate should be so low. Perhaps Lopez can defy regression all year, but odds are, he’ll eventually drift back closer to his 4.30 xERA.

Ultimately, this feels like an excellent opportunity to sell high on an extremely overvalued pitcher.

More MLB Bets for Sunday, July 7

Giants F5 ML at Guardians (+110)

I want no part of the Guardians’ bullpen, which has been the best in baseball by an astronomical margin. However, I have no problem picking on Carlos Carrasco. He owns a 5.21 ERA this season, and his xERA isn’t much better. I’ll take my chances with Hayden Birdsong for the Giants, who at least has the benefit of being one of their top pitching prospects.

Red Sox ML at Yankees (+136)

The Yankees managed to snap out of their funk on Saturday, securing a 14-4 victory over their rivals. Still, they’ve won just five of their past 19 games. They’ll have Luis Gil on the mound on Sunday, but Gil has been crushed over his past few starts. He’s allowed at least four earned runs in three straight outings, so he doesn’t appear to be the same ace he was to start the year. Kutter Crawford has developed into a solid mid-end starter for the Red Sox, so +136 feels like a generous offering.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 2-2 (-0.04 units)
  • Season: 163-168-8 (-11.535 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.