The MLB action on Sunday gets off to an even earlier start than usual. The Pirates and Braves will kick things off at 11:35 a.m. ET, followed by the more traditional nine-game early slate at 1:35. A four-game afternoon slate will follow, and a matchup between the Orioles and Rangers will serve as the nightcap.

Let’s break down some of my favorite betting options for Sunday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Sunday, June 30

Twins vs. Mariners Under 7.0 runs (+100; BetMGM)

The Mariners have been a prime under target all year, combining one of the best pitching staffs in baseball with one of the worst offenses. They’re merely 27th in runs per game, but they’re seventh in team ERA. They’re even better when focusing solely on the starters, ranking third in starting pitcher ERA.

Sunday’s contest vs. the Twins seems like another good spot for an under. They’ll send Luis Castillo to the bump, who remains an above-average starter. His numbers are down slightly from his ace peak, but his 3.97 xERA is nothing to scoff at.

Castillo also appears to be catching the Twins at the right time. They have a 106 wRC+ against right-handers for the year, but they’re down to just 99 over the past seven days.

On the other side, the Twins will turn to Joe Ryan. Ryan has had a fantastic season, establishing himself as one of the better control pitchers in baseball. His 3.04 xERA puts him in the 82nd percentile, while he’s third among qualified starters in Location+.

Ryan also draws a much easier matchup. The Mariners are merely 18th in wRC+ vs. right-handers, so I like his chances of keeping their offense at bay.

Toronto Blue Jays ML vs. New York Yankees (+108; FanDuel)

The Yankees have been in a bit of a tailspin, winning just two of their past 10 games. The good news is that they’ll have their ace on the mound in Gerrit Cole. The bad news is that Cole has not looked like his usual self through his first two starts. He owns a 9.00 ERA across eight innings, and his xERA and FIP are even worse. Cole is likely going to figure things out eventually, but there’s no guarantee it will happen on Sunday.

Kevin Gausman has also had his issues for the Blue Jays, but he’s rebounded after a dreadful start. He was elite in May – pitching to a 2.05 FIP and 11.28 K/9 – before stumbling back to reality a bit in June.

The bigger difference is offensively. The Blue Jays have been scorching hot of late, ranking second in wRC+ vs. right-handers over the past seven days. The Yankees are 18th over that same time frame, and their lineup is clearly weaker without Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo. If Gausman can limit the damage vs. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, the Blue Jays should be able to secure a victory in Toronto.

More MLB Bets for Sunday, June 30

White Sox F5 ML vs. Rockies (-175)

I don’t recommend laying -175 with the White Sox often, but when I do, you can bet that Garrett Crochet is on the bump.

That will be the case on Sunday, while the Rockies will counter with Kyle Freeland (9.55 ERA, 5.30 xERA). Starting pitcher mismatches don’t get much bigger than that. 

Reds F5 ML vs. Cardinals (-120)

Both Lance Lynn and Hunter Greene have had similar seasons, but they’ve done so in different ways. Lynn feels fortunate to have pitched to a 3.86 ERA, ranking below the 50th percentile in most metrics.

On the other hand, Greene has another gear he can get to. He’s second among qualified pitchers in Stuff+, and he’s one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball. His xERA is more than a full run better than Lynn’s, so I’ll take my chances with the Reds over the first five innings.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 2-1-1 (+0.655 units)
  • Season: 152-155-8 (-9.605 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.