Thursday’s MLB slate features 12 games spaced evenly throughout the day. Five contests will take place at 3:45 p.m. ET or earlier, followed by a seven-game slate starting at 6:05 p.m. ET. There are some exciting matchups on the docket as well, headlined by a potential NLCS showdown between the Phillies and Dodgers.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite betting options for Thursday’s slate.

MLB BETS TODAY – PICKS FOR THURSDAY, JULY 11

Arizona Diamondbacks ML vs. Atlanta Braves (+100; BetMGM)

This is a matchup between two of baseball's biggest disappointments in 2024. The Braves were expected to cruise to an NL East title and threaten 100 wins, but at 51-40, they’re currently 8.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. The Diamondbacks are one game under .500, so it’s going to be a struggle for last year’s World Series representative to even make it back to the playoffs.

On paper, the Braves have the pitching edge in this spot. Max Fried has a 3.18 ERA for Atlanta, while Brandon Pfaadt has a 4.19 ERA for the Diamondbacks. However, the advanced metrics suggest Pfaadt might actually be the superior arm. In terms of xERA, Pfaadt owns a slight edge over Fried (3.51 vs. 3.71), and the gap is even starker from a pitch modeling perspective. Pfaadt ranks 13th among qualified starters in Pitching+, while Fried ranks merely 49th.

The Diamondbacks are also on the positive side of their splits against a left-hander. They’re fifth in wRC+ vs. southpaws, while the Braves offense has been stuck in a rut. They’re 20th in wRC+ vs. right-handers for the season, and they’re down to 28th in that split over the past 30 days.

Ultimately, Arizona is in a great spot to pick up a win as small underdogs.

Los Angeles Dodgers ML at Philadelphia Phillies (+128; FanDuel)

The Dodgers have dropped the first two games of their series vs. the Phillies, and they’ll have their hands full once again on Thursday. They’re taking on Aaron Nola, who was once considered one of the best pitchers in the National League.

However, Nola’s stock has dropped a bit over the past few seasons. His ERA sits at a good but not great 3.48 in 2024, while he’s striking out a career-worst 8.47 batters per nine innings. Ultimately, he’s one of the more hittable pitchers in the Phillies’ outstanding rotation.

The Dodgers will counter with Landon Knack, who has taken to the big leagues like a duck to water. He owns a 2.86 ERA across his seven starts, albeit with some concerning underlying peripherals. I still give the Phillies the pitching advantage, but it’s not as big as you might think.

Offensively, the Dodgers get the edge. They’re No. 3 in wRC+ vs. right-handers, while the Phillies are No. 8. The Dodgers bullpen is also a bit fresher, so they’re in a good spot to salvage a win in the series finale.

MORE MLB BETS FOR THURSDAY, JULY 11

Cubs ML at Orioles (+115)

Justin Steele got off to a rough start this season, but he’s been on absolute fire of late. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of his past eight outings, and the lone exception was a three-run performance. Over that time frame, he boasts a 1.67 ERA and a 2.43 FIP. I’m willing to back him in almost any situation as an underdog.

Jack Kochanowicz Under 4.5 strikeouts (-110)

Jack Kochanowicz will make his MLB debut on Thursday, jumping straight from Double-A to the big leagues. He’s the Angels’ No. 7 prospect, but the Angels have one of the worst farm systems in baseball. He’s not particularly well-regarded overall, especially from a strikeout perspective. He managed just 7.81 strikeouts per nine innings at Double-A, so it seems unlikely he’s going to be a strikeout maven in the majors. The Mariners are a great matchup for strikeouts, but I’m willing to bet against Kochanowicz in his first MLB outing.

2024 MLB BETS RECORD

  • Yesterday: 1-3 (-1.29 units)
  • Season: 169-176-9 (-12.695 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.