Happy Independence Day! America’s pastime is unsurprisingly a big part of July 4th, and the fanfare will be on full display throughout the day. All 30 teams are scheduled to take the field, with the first game starting at 11:05 a.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite betting options for the Fourth of July.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Thursday, July 4

Houston Astros ML at Toronto Blue Jays (-115; DraftKings)

Don’t look now, but here come the Astros. They were the best team in baseball in June, racking up a 17-8 record and putting themselves right back in the thick of the playoff hunt. They’ve followed that up with two wins in three games to start June, including a 9-2 thumping of the Blue Jays on Wednesday.

On paper, Thursday’s pitching matchup seems pretty even. Chris Bassitt will get the ball for the Blue Jays, while Framber Valdez will start for the Astros. Both pitchers have an xERA right around 4.00.

However, Valdez is my preferred option. His numbers have declined from his peak, but he still generates more groundballs than almost anyone in baseball: his 62.5% groundball rate puts him in the 98th percentile. He should be able to survive against a Blue Jays offense that ranks 22nd in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers.

The Astros offense has been firing on all cylinders of late. They’re up to sixth for the year in wRC+ vs. right-handers, and they’re fifth over the past 14 days. They also have the better bullpen – Toronto is 28th in bullpen ERA – so they check all the boxes for me on Thursday.

Arizona Diamondbacks-Los Angeles Dodgers Under 8.5 runs (-105; Caesars)

It’s never fun to bet an under, but it feels downright un-American on the Fourth of July. Still, the only fireworks I’m expecting to see in this contest are after the game.

The Diamondbacks will have their ace on the bump in Zac Gallen. He’s not quite as good as his 2.83 ERA suggests, but he’s still one of the better pitchers in baseball. He’s also catching the Dodgers at the right time. Their offense isn’t nearly as intimidating without Mookie Betts, and they’re down to 13th in wRC+ against right-handers over the past 14 days. They’re still really good, but they’re not quite the best offense in baseball without their star shortstop.

The Dodgers will be hoping for another quality outing for Landon Knack, who has had a knack for getting out big leaguers. He’s posted a sparkling 2.08 ERA across his six starts, and while his advanced metrics aren’t quite as impressive, he looks the part of a big-league starter.

The Diamondbacks offense has struggled to live up to last year’s success, ranking as a league-average squad against right-handers in 2024. Ultimately, runs should be at a premium.

More MLB Bets for Thursday, July 4

Angels ML at A’s (+100)

Roansy Contreras has been given new life with the Angels. After spending the early part of the year in the bullpen, Contreras allowed just one earned run over his first start of the year. It was only three innings, but he pitched to a sub-4.00 ERA as a starter with the Pirates in 2022. It wouldn’t be a huge shock if they were able to turn him around. I’ll take my chances with him against JP Sears (4.69 xERA), especially since the Angels fare best against left-handed pitchers.

Rangers ML vs. Padres (-132)

It’s only been two starts, but Max Scherzer looks pretty much like the Scherzer of old. He’s allowed just two runs across 10.1 innings, and his xERA checks in at 2.12. While he’s not the same strikeout maven that he was in his prime, his Statcast data is among the best in baseball. He gives the Rangers a sizable pitching edge over Michael King, who is more of a league-average arm.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 3-1 (+0.675 units)
  • Season: 157-162-8 (-11.39 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.