Thursday’s MLB slate is on the smaller side, with just nine games to choose from. Still, that gives us plenty of opportunities to look for value in the betting market. Three games will take place at 4:10 p.m. ET or earlier, with the other six taking place in the evening.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite betting options for Thursday's slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Thursday, June 27

Minnesota Twins-Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9.0 runs (-120; BetMGM)

The Twins and Diamondbacks will each send an intriguing pitcher to the bump on Thursday. Jordan Montgomery will get the ball for Arizona, and he has largely been a disaster since signing with the Diamondbacks. His ERA and xERA are both over 5.00, so he has barely resembled the guy who was a postseason hero for the Rangers last year.

However, Montgomery has a solid track record of success, and he’s started to show signs of improvement. He’s allowed five earned runs over his past three starts, including an impressive outing vs. the Phillies in his last contest.

For Minnesota, David Festa will make his first career MLB start. Festa just barely cracked the Top 100 prospects list at No. 99, and he has a big-league-caliber arm. He’s averaged more than 13 strikeouts per nine innings this season in Triple-A, and he grades out very favorably from a pitch modeling perspective. Walks can be a bit of an issue at times – something that’s true for a lot of young pitchers – but he has just one walk over his past 16.2 innings in the minors.

Ultimately, both of these pitchers have the potential to be successful on Thursday. This total has already come down from 9.5, but you can still find a juiced 9.0 on BetMGM. It’s down to 8.5 at most other locations, so I think that’s a valuable number.

Toronto Blue Jays ML vs. New York Yankees (+118; FanDuel)

This is an absolutely brutal spot for the Yankees. Not only were they embarrassed by their cross-town rivals, but they had to endure a long rain delay that prolonged their agony. Now, they’ll have to turn things around very quickly with a depleted bullpen on virtually no rest.

They’ll square off with Jose Berrios, who has vastly outpitched his peripherals this season. However, that’s yet to really bite him. He’s likely due for some regression at some point, but this Yankees’ lineup isn’t the most intimidating to face at the moment. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto is the best 1-2 duo in the league, but no one else in the lineup is particularly imposing. That’s especially true with Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo currently on the sidelines.

On the other side, Carlos Rodon has a lot of the same red flags as Berrios. His xERA is nearly a full run higher than his actual mark, and his Statcast data is all subpar. The Blue Jays’ lineup has struggled against left-handers this season, but they were ninth in wRC+ in that split last year. They still have talent, so it wouldn’t be a shock if they showed some improvement over the second half.

More MLB Bets for Thursday, June 27

Reds F5 ML at Cardinals (+114)

The Cardinals have heated up after a slow start to the year, but Miles Mikolas remains a big concern at pitcher. He has just a 4.68 ERA this season, and he ranks as a below average pitcher in nearly every category across the board. Andrew Abbott has been far more impressive for the Reds, ranking in the 77th percentile in xERA (3.21) and 90th percentile in hard-hit rate (31.6%). I’ll take my chances with the Reds as underdogs in this matchup every day of the week.

Ben Lively Over 3.5 strikeouts (+100)

On paper, this is not a great spot for Ben Lively. He’s a mediocre strikeout pitcher, and the Royals have the fourth-lowest strikeout rate against right-handers this season. That said, this number is simply too low. Lively has racked up at least four strikeouts in 10 of 12 starts this season, including six of his past seven. The Royals’ strikeout rate has also increased of late, ranking eighth among right-handers over the past 14 days.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 2-2 (+0.05 units)
  • Season: 144-152-7 (-12.32 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.