Thursday’s slate is on the smaller side, with just eight games to choose from. Three of those contests will start at 1:10 p.m. ET, while four will start at 7:10 p.m. ET or later. The final matchup is sandwiched smack-dab in the middle at 4:10.

Even though we have fewer opportunities than usual, there are still some solid spots to attack in the betting market. Let’s dive into some of my top plays for Thursday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Thursday, May 30

Washington Nationals ML at Atlanta Braves (+165; BetMGM)

The Nationals managed to secure an upset victory over the Braves on Wednesday, and they’re in another good spot for an upset on Thursday. They were initially slated to face Reynaldo Lopez, but the Braves have decided to push him back a day. Instead, Ray Kerr will make his second start of the season.

Kerr represents a clear downgrade from Lopez. He’s spent most of the season in the bullpen, and his first start was pretty disastrous. He allowed five earned runs across four innings against the Pirates, with eight of 21 opposing batters reaching base.

The Nationals will turn to one of their best arms in Trevor Williams. Williams has pitched to a 2.29 ERA this season, and while he’s been a bit fortunate, his 3.19 xERA is still excellent. He’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in every start this season, and he’s allowed one or less in six of his past seven.

I don’t think this price tag has adjusted enough to reflect the pitching downgrade from Lopez to Kerr. I’m happy to grab the Nationals at +160 or better.

Detroit Tigers-Boston Red Sox F5 Under 3.5 (+100; Caesars)

This matchup features two pitchers who are doing some really good things this season. Jack Flaherty will get the ball for the Tigers, and he’s had a resurgence in his first year in Detroit. His strikeout numbers are absolutely elite, while his 2.77 xERA puts him in the 88th percentile. After missing plenty of time with injuries over the past few years, Flaherty is healthy and thriving.

Nick Pivetta hasn’t had the same traditional success as Flaherty, but the pitch modeling metrics adore him. He’s first in Stuff+ among all starters with at least 30 innings this season, and he trails only Jared Jones in terms of Pitching+. Ultimately, he’s a much better pitcher than his current 4.20 ERA suggests.

The pitchers should also see a slightly helping wind in Boston, which could help keep the ball in the ballpark. This is a low number, but I think these hurlers can keep the first five innings under 3.5 runs.

More MLB Bets for Thursday, May 30

Yankees-Angels Under 8.5 (-104)

This is another matchup where I’m looking to back the pitchers. Carlos Rodon has been excellent for the Yankees this season, ranking fifth in Stuff+ among qualified starters. Patrick Sandoval’s xERA is nearly two runs lower than his actual mark, so he’s been more unlucky than bad. With some regression in terms of BABIP (.348) and strand rate (62.3%), he should improve moving forward. 

Christian Scott Under 5.5 strikeouts (-134)

I’m a believer in Christian Scott, who has looked the part since arriving at the major league level. However, his strikeout numbers have decreased over his past two starts, and he’ll face a tough matchup Thursday vs. the Diamondbacks. They’ve been one of the toughest matchups for right-handers, posting a strikeout rate of just 21.5%. Scott has four punchouts or fewer in back-to-back outings, so getting to six vs. the Diamondbacks feels like too much to ask.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 2-2 (-0.13 units)
  • Season: 107-118-6 (-16.09 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.