We’re coming off one of the quietest days of the baseball season on Monday. There were merely three games to choose from, and one of them took place in the afternoon. If you worked a regular 9-5, you might not have even realized that baseball happened yesterday.

Fortunately, we’re back with a full MLB slate on Tuesday. All 30 teams are slated to take the field, with each game starting at 6:40 p.m. ET or later. The weather report also looks promising, with only the game in Kansas City in any real jeopardy.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite betting options for Tuesday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Tuesday, July 2

New York Mets ML at Washington Nationals (-145; Caesars)

I apologize if it feels like I’ve been recommending the Mets a lot recently, but they have consistently been one of the most undervalued teams in the betting market. It’s worked often, too, with the team winning 17 of their past 23 games. They have a lot of positive things working in their favor, which has made them one of the best teams in baseball over the past month.

They took the first game of their series vs. the Nationals in extra innings, but the team struggled to get much going against starter MacKenzie Gore. Fortunately, Tuesday’s matchup is much easier. D.J. Herz is a middling prospect for the Nationals, and his first stint in the big leagues has gone about as expected (5.48 ERA, 4.80 FIP). He does have strong strikeout stuff, but when batters are making contact, they’re doing significant damage.

Herz is also left-handed, which works as a positive for the Mets. Their offense has been outstanding vs. southpaws this season, and they’ve erupted in that split over the past month. They own a 162 wRC+ vs. left-handers over the past 30 days, which is the second-best mark in baseball.

On the other side, the Nationals are merely 24th in wRC+ vs. southpaws over the same time frame. That gives Sean Manaea a nice matchup on the bump. Manaea has struggled with control at times, but his 3.89 ERA and 3.81 FIP give the Mets the pitching edge in this contest. With advantages on the mound and in the batter’s box, -145 is a very fair price tag. 

San Diego Padres ML at Texas Rangers (-105; BetMGM)

Tuesday’s matchup between the Padres and Rangers features one of the best pitching matchups on the slate. The Padres will turn to Dylan Cease, while the Rangers will call on Nate Eovaldi.

Eovaldi has a solid track record of success, but he hasn’t been particularly dominant this season. He owns a 3.81 xERA and a 3.97 FIP, both of which are about half a run higher than his actual mark. He’s benefited from a low .267 BABIP and 79.8% strand rate, so he’s due for some regression moving forward.

Conversely, Cease remains as dominant as ever. He’s one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball, with his 31.3% K rate ranking in the 92nd percentile. His advanced metrics say he’s been a bit unlucky, with his 3.40 xERA checking in below his actual mark.

The Padres also enter this game in far better offensive form. They’re third in wRC+ vs. right-handers over the past 30 days, while the Rangers are dead last. The gap is equally stark over the course of the full season, with the Padres ranking second and the Rangers 24th.

Ultimately, this is another spot where there appears to be value with the road squad.

More MLB Bets for Tuesday, July 2

Phillies ML at Cubs (+108)

We don’t get opportunities to back the Phillies as underdogs very often, especially against pitchers like Hayden Wesneski. He’s pitched to a 3.60 ERA this season, but his advanced metrics suggest he’s been fortunate. His xERA is all the way up at 4.81, and most of his sample came out of the bullpen. The Phillies have been one of the best offenses in baseball, so they should be able to rough him up.

Valente Bellozo Under 3.5 strikeouts (+114)

Valente Bellozo impressed in his first MLB outing, pitching five scoreless innings against the Royals. That said, a lot went in his favor. The Royals had just a .133 BABIP, and Bellozo punched out just two batters. He wasn’t a strikeout merchant in the minors either, averaging 7.84 strikeouts per nine innings across 20.2 Triple-A innings. He draws a slightly friendlier matchup for strikeouts Tuesday vs. the Red Sox, but they also have the offensive talent to chase him from the game early. I’ll take my chances with the under.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Sunday: 0-4 (-2.475 units)
  • Season: 152-159-8 (-12.08 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.