After a slow start to the week, baseball picks up steam on Tuesday. We need it too, with the NBA and NHL Finals both on an off day.
All 30 teams are slated to be in action, with all 30 games taking place at 6:40 p.m. ET or later. The weather report also looks promising, so there’s a good chance that all 15 contests will take place.
Let’s dive into some of my favorite betting options for Tuesday.
MLB Bets Today – Picks for Tuesday, June 11
Cincinnati Reds F5 ML vs. Cleveland Guardians (-105; BetMGM)
I’ve been looking to fade Triston McKenzie for most of the season, and we’ll continue with that logic on Tuesday. McKenzie is pitching through an injury, and it has had a tremendous impact on his numbers. His fastball velocity is down more than 1.5 miles per hour from his peak, and his Stuff+ has declined from 113 in 2022 to 100 this season. Ultimately, his 4.94 xERA puts him in the 15th percentile.
The Reds also enter this contest in good form offensively. They’re fifth in wRC+ vs. right-handers over the past 14 days, and their home ballpark is extremely conducive to offense. I like the Reds to jump all over McKenzie early before the Guardians' elite bullpen potentially gets them back in the game.
Pittsburgh Pirates ML at St. Louis Cardinals (-130; Caesars)
I’m not entirely sure what I’m missing with this line. Paul Skenes will be on the bump for the Pirates, and he’s already in the discussion for best pitcher in the league. He was roughly -120 against the Dodgers in his last start, and now he’s just -130 vs. the Cardinals? That doesn’t make a ton of sense to me.
I’m certainly not complaining. Skenes has been as good as advertised since arriving in the big leagues, posting a 2.79 xERA while striking out 35.5% of opposing batters. That figure puts him in the 97th percentile. Skenes has now made five starts for the Pirates, and they’ve held big leads after he’s departed in all five games.
Miles Mikolas will get the ball for St. Louis, and he’s had a brutal season. His ERA sits at 5.32, and his 4.59 xERA isn’t much better. It’s hard to view this pitching matchup as anything but a massive mismatch.
The Cardinals are definitely the better team offensively, but good pitching can trump good hitting. Getting the Pirates at anything better than -140 feels like a steal.
More MLB Bets for Tuesday, June 11
Phillies-Red Sox Under 8.0 (-105)
This matchup features a really good pitching showdown between Zach Wheeler and Kutter Crawford. Wheeler entered the season as the favorite for the NL Cy Young, and he’s pitched to a 2.23 ERA and 2.77 xERA through 13 starts. He’s basically been as good as advertised. Crawford has hit a little rough patch of late, but his 3.66 xERA still puts him in the top half of the league. There’s also a chance that the Phillies’ offense could be a bit jetlagged after traveling across the pond on Sunday.
Bryan Woo Under 6.5 strikeouts (-140)
Bryan Woo has made just six starts this season, but he’s been basically unhittable. His 1.80 xERA and .188 xBA both rank in the 94th percentile or better, and he’s been elite at limiting the number of free passes and barrels. That said, the one thing he hasn’t done is pile up the strikeouts. His strikeout rate sits in the 34th percentile, and he has just 24 punchouts in 33.2 innings. The White Sox are a fantastic matchup for Woo, but they’re merely 13th in strikeout rate vs. right-handers. He should put together another outstanding start, but less than seven punchouts seems like a reasonable outcome.
2024 MLB Bets Record
- Yesterday: 2-2 (+0.00 units)
- Season: 132-138-6 (-10.795 units)
All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.
