We are officially in the dog days of summer. The NBA and NHL Finals have officially wrapped up, leaving us with just baseball for the next few months. Sure, the NFL offseason and a few other niche sports still have our attention, but baseball is going to have to carry us through September.
Fortunately, we have a strong slate of games to choose from on Tuesday. There are 15 contests on the docket, with each taking place at 6:35 p.m. ET or later. There are a few potential storms to keep your eye on, but there are still plenty of opportunities to look for value in the betting market.
Let’s dive into some of my favorite options for Tuesday’s slate.
MLB Bets Today – Picks for Tuesday, June 25
Oakland Athletics ML at Los Angeles Angels (+108; FanDuel)
The A’s selected Mitch Spence in the Rule 5 Draft this offseason, and he’s paid dividends so far. Spence owns a 3.86 ERA and a 3.69 xERA, and he’s actually been more effective since transitioning to the starting rotation. Ultimately, he’s been one of the A’s most reliable options.
He grades out favorably compared to Tyler Anderson despite the southpaw’s 2.48 ERA this season. Anderson has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball, posting unsustainable marks in terms of BABIP (.224) and strand rate (86.9%). His 4.51 xERA is nearly two full runs higher than his actual mark, while he ranks dead last among qualified starters in strikeout rate minus walk rate.
The A’s offense has held their own against southpaws this season, and they have the superior bullpen as well. Everything is lining up for them in this matchup, so they stand out as strong targets as small underdogs.
Washington Nationals F5 ML at San Diego Padres (-120; DraftKings)
Adam Mazur entered the season as the Padres’ No. 5 prospect, but it appears as though he’s not ready for primetime. He has struggled mightily at the MLB level, pitching to a 7.27 ERA. His underlying metrics are also concerning, particularly the fact that he’s walked more batters than he’s struck out.
I give the Nationals a big pitching edge in this matchup with MacKenzie Gore on the bump. Gore one of the centerpieces of the trade that sent Juan Soto to the Padres, and he’s had a breakout campaign in 2024. He’s striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings, and he also ranks in the 89th percentile in average exit velocity. Add it all up, and his 3.74 xERA is easily the best mark of his career.
These two squads have been pretty even from a bullpen perspective, so the biggest edge should come early for Washington. I prefer the first-five moneyline over the full game.
More MLB Bets for Tuesday, June 25
Dodgers-White Sox Over 9.5 (-102)
Taking the Over in a White Sox game is always risky, with the team averaging an MLB-low 3.04 runs per game. They were shut out on Monday despite facing one of the Dodgers' weakest starters in James Paxton. Still, the Dodgers should be able to carry the scoring load here. Chris Flexen has pitched to a 5.03 ERA and 4.73 xERA this season, and the Dodgers have a 118 wRC+ against right-handers. After Flexen departs, the White Sox rank 27th in bullpen ERA. If Chicago can put just a couple of runs on the board vs. Bobby Miller (6.00 ERA, 5.05 xERA), the Dodgers should get us the rest of the way.
Tarik Skubal Over 6.5 strikeouts (+125)
Tarik Skubal is going to have his hands full with the Phillies on Tuesday, but he’s been up to the challenge basically all season. He ranks in the 89th percentile or better in most pitching categories, including strikeout rate (29.2%). He’s coming off back-to-back subpar outings, and the Phillies are a strong offense against southpaws. However, they also possess the ninth-highest strikeout rate against left-handers. Skubal already has seven starts with at least seven punchouts this season, so I’ll take my chances at +125.
2024 MLB Bets Record
- Yesterday: 2-1-1 (+0.32 units)
- Season: 141-147-7 (-11.385 units)
All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.