After a smaller slate on Monday, baseball is back with a vengeance on Tuesday. There is a full 15-game slate, with each game starting at 6:10 p.m. ET or later. Only one game has the potential for weather issues, so it will be a big night for the MLB.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite top MLB picks for Tuesday, May 21.

Top MLB Picks for May 21

Mets vs. Guardians F5 Over 4.5 (-166; DraftKings)

Taking an over with the Mets right now is terrifying. Their offense seems to go into a funk once a week, and they’re coming off just one run on Monday. However, the Mets still grade out as an above-average offense vs. right-handers, ranking 11th in wRC+. The Guardians have been an offensive machine all season, ranking sixth in runs per game, so both offenses have potential.

However, the pitching matchup is where things stand out from an over perspective.

Adrian Houser vs. Carlos Carrasco is about as good as it gets for opposing offenses. Houser has a 7.44 ERA and 5.76 xERA this season, while Carrasco hasn’t been much better (5.16 ERA; 5.03 xERA).

Most of the damage in this game should come in the early innings. The Guardians have arguably the best bullpen in baseball, while the Mets’ relievers have been much better than expected. We have to lay some juice to get over 4.5 in the first five innings, but I still think it’s underpriced. 

Cubs ML at Braves (+106; FanDuel)

What’s going on with the Braves? They’ve dropped four of their past five games, and their usually potent offense has appeared to go quiet. They’re merely No. 17 in wRC+ over the past seven days, and they’ve scored three runs or fewer in six of their past eight contests.

I’m not worried about the Braves long-term, but they could continue to struggle on Tuesday. They’re taking on Javier Assad, who continues to defy expectations for the Cubs. Assad’s peripheral stats don’t jump off the page, but he’s been one of the best in baseball at keeping runs off the scoreboard in

More MLB Bets for Tuesday, May 21

Tigers vs. Royals Over 9.0 (-110)

We’ve had some success with wind-aided unders this season, so let’s try the inverse in this matchup. The conditions at Kaufman Stadium are expected to significantly aid hitters on Tuesday, with winds blowing out to right field at 10-15 miles per hour. That’s enough to turn a long fly ball from a routine out into an extra-base hit.

Garrett Crochet Under 5.5 strikeouts (-105)

Crochet is an emerging young starter, and he’s capable of piling up the punchouts. His strikeout rate sits in the 95th percentile, and he has at least six punchouts in all but two starts this season. That said, the matchup vs. the Blue Jays couldn’t be much worse.

Toronto has the second-lowest strikeout rate against left-handers this season, and Crochet has pitched more than six innings in just one start. He’s going to need to average a strikeout per inning (or better) in this spot, and I’m not sure he can pull that off vs. Toronto.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 0-4 (-2.125 units)
  • Season: 90-109-6 (-17.925 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.