Wednesday features one of the largest MLB slates we’ve seen all season. In addition to the typical 15 games originally on the schedule, there will also be two doubleheaders to account for last night’s rain outs. That results in 17 games to choose from in the betting market.
Let’s dive into some of my favorite betting options for Wednesday’s slate.
MLB BETS TODAY – PICKS FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 10
San Francisco Giants ML vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-150; BetMGM)
The Blue Jays have been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball this season. They’re currently nine games under .500, and they don’t have much working for them. Their once potent offense is down to 26th in runs per game, while they’re 29th in bullpen ERA.
Their starting pitching has been their one saving grace, ranking near the middle of the pack in ERA. Chris Bassitt has been a big part of their success, posting a 3.43 mark.
Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem like that success will last. Bassitt’s xERA is up at 4.30, and most of his advanced metrics put him in the bottom half of the league. In terms of Pitching+, he’s 52nd out of 68 qualified starters.
He’ll be opposed by Logan Webb on Wednesday, who remains nearly unbeatable in San Francisco. While his overall numbers are slightly up, he owns a sparkling 2.13 ERA and 2.84 FIP while pitching at home. -150 feels like a very fair price tag to back the home squad.
Tampa Bay Rays ML vs. New York Yankees (-108; FanDuel)
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. I’ve been successfully fading the Yankees for weeks, and I’m going right back to the well on Wednesday. The Rays will send Zach Eflin to the bump, and he hasn’t been quite as good as he was last year on paper. His ERA currently sits at 4.19 after posting a career-best 3.50 mark last season.
However, Eflin has been a bit unlucky. His xERA is nearly a full run lower at 3.36, while his FIP is a respectable 3.77. Eflin’s strikeout numbers are down compared to last season, but he’s made up for it with some of the best control in the game. His walk rate puts him in the 99th percentile, while he’s second among qualified starters in Location+.
If you can avoid handing out free passes to the Yankees, it’s a recipe for success. Their lineup isn’t scaring anyone at the moment, despite the imposing duo of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. They’re merely 13th in wRC+ against right-handers over the past 30 days.
On the other side, Marcus Stroman will get the ball for the Yankees. Stroman is having a typical Marcus Stroman season, posting a 3.58 ERA with a 50.3% groundball rate. However, this is not the same pitcher we’ve seen in years past. He’s walking a career-worst 4.02 batters per nine innings, while his K/9 is just 6.79. He’s survived due to a .247 BABIP and an 80.2% strand rate, both of which seem due for regression.
Ultimately, this is another great spot to fade the ice-cold Bronx Bombers.
MORE MLB BETS FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 10
Dodgers-Phillies Under 9.5 runs (-120)
The Phillies absolutely demolished the Dodgers on Tuesday, winning by a final margin of 10-1. I’m not expecting quite as much offense from the Phillies on Wednesday. They’re taking on Gavin Stone, who has pitched to a 3.03 ERA and 3.77 xERA so far this season. The Phillies will counter with Christopher Sanchez, who has posted a 2.96 ERA and 3.53 xERA. Both of these guys are capable of keeping the opposing offense at bay.
Andre Pallante Under 3.5 strikeouts (+100)
Andre Pallante has been dependable in the strikeout market of late, tallying at least four strikeouts in five straight games. However, those have all come in strikeout-friendly matchups. Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Royals is anything but, with Kansas City posting the fourth-lowest strikeout rate vs. right-handers this season. Pallante has subpar strikeout stuff, ranking in the 24th percentile in strikeout rate and eighth percentile in whiff rate. This seems like a good time to sell high.
2024 MLB BETS RECORD
- Yesterday: 2-1 (+0.525 units)
- Season: 168-173-9 (-11.405 units)
All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.
