It’s weird to have a Wednesday MLB slate with no afternoon games, but that’s the case this Wednesday. All 30 teams are slated to take the field, with each contest starting at 6:40 p.m. ET or later. The good news is that the weather forecast looks promising, so all 15 games should take place.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite betting options for Wednesday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Wednesday, July 3

Minnesota Twins ML vs. Detroit Tigers (-165; BetMGM)

The Tigers were a surprise to start the year, jumping out to an 18-13 record at the start of May. However, things have gone downhill since then. Their offense has been a disaster, with the team ranking 26th in wRC+ since May 1. Their pitching has been good enough to keep them relevant, but if they’re not getting a productive outing from their starter, they’re going to struggle to stay in games.

That should be the case on Wednesday. They’ll send Keider Montero to the mound for his third MLB start, and things haven’t gone well in his first two. He owns a 9.35 ERA and a 4.62 xERA, and the Tigers have dropped both contests.

He’s going to have his hands full with the Twins, who are eighth in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season. They’re also entering this contest in good form, ranking second in that department over the past 30 days.

On the other side, the Twins will hand the ball to David Festa. Festa is also a young starting pitcher, and he’ll be making just his second MLB start. However, Festa was a Top 100 prospect, and he’s excelled at every level of the minor leagues. He should be able to bounce back from a rough first outing against a friendly opponent.

San Francisco Giants-Atlanta Braves Under 8.0 runs (-112; FanDuel)

The Giants and Braves will square off in Atlanta, and the Giants managed to secure a 5-3 victory on Tuesday. However, the pitching matchup on Wednesday is significantly better. The Braves will send Chris Sale to the bump, and the Giants will counter with Jordan Hicks.

Sale has bounced back with a vintage Sale season in his first year with the Braves. His 2.64 xERA puts him in the 94th percentile, and his Statcast and strikeout numbers have also been elite. The Giants are a strong offense against southpaws, but guys like Sale are capable of mowing through any lineup.

Hicks spent most of his tenure with the Cardinals as a reliever, but he’s thrived as a starting pitcher for the Giants. He no longer throws 100 miles per hour, but he’s transformed into one of the best groundball pitchers in baseball. He generates ground balls on more than 51% of his batted ball events, and it’s hard to get into trouble when the ball is on the dirt.

The Braves’ offense has also been in a major funk. They’re merely 26th in wRC+ vs. right-handers over the past 30 days, and without Ronald Acuna, this offense isn’t nearly as formidable as it was last season. Overall, I’m expecting a low-scoring affair.

More MLB Bets for Wednesday, July 3

Phillies ML at Cubs (-115)

Has the league started to figure out Shota Imanaga? He was virtually unhittable to start the year, but he’s surrendered at least three runs in back-to-back outings. That includes a disastrous 10-run showing vs. the Mets two starts ago. His xERA is all the way up to 3.48, so he doesn’t feel nearly as unhittable as he did a month ago. The Phillies will counter with Zach Wheeler, who is the current favorite for the NL Cy Young Award. I give them the pitching edge in this matchup, and they have the offensive edge as well.

Yusei Kikuchi Under 5.5 strikeouts (-145)

Kikuchi is a decent strikeout arm, racking up 93 punchouts in 88.1 innings this season. His 24.8% strikeout rate puts him in the 67th percentile, and he’s had at least six punchouts in nine of his 17 starts. However, the Astros are literally the toughest possible matchup for a left-handed pitcher. They have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball in that split, so we should expect less strikeout production than usual. The under is juiced to -145, but I still think that’s a very fair number.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 2-2 (+0.015 units)
  • Season: 154-161-8 (-12.065 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.