Wednesday sets up as an excellent day for sports fans. We have Game 3 of the NBA Finals, while the final preparations are being made in advance of the US Open. Of course, there’s also a robust baseball slate to choose from, with 15 games scheduled throughout the course of the day.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite MLB bets for Wednesday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Wednesday, June 12

San Francisco Giants ML vs. Houston Astros (-115; BetMGM)

The Giants appear to be in a great spot Wednesday vs. the Astros. For starters, they’ll have their ace on the bump in Logan Webb. Webb hasn’t had his best season from an advanced metrics perspective, but it hasn’t necessarily hurt him. His ERA is at 2.92, so he’s on pace for a fourth straight season with an ERA of 3.25 or better.

Webb remains one of the best groundball pitchers in baseball. His 56.6% groundball rate puts him in the 94th percentile, which makes up for some of his poor strikeout and Statcast metrics. When batters are hitting the ball on the ground, they’re not hitting it over the fence.

Additionally, the Giants will be on the positive side of their splits vs. Framber Valdez. Valdez is a left-hander, and the Giants are eighth in wRC+ vs. southpaws this season. They’ve been scorching hot in that split of late, with their 151 wRC+ over the past 30 days ranking second in baseball.

Valdez is a similar pitcher to Webb – high groundball rate, weak underlying metrics – but I’ll take my chances with the Giants’ offense in this showdown. The Giants’ bullpen is also fresh after avoiding most of their top relievers on Tuesday.

Cleveland Guardians-Cincinnati Reds F5 Under 4.0 (-110; BetMGM)

Wednesday’s matchup between the Guardians and Reds features one of the best pitching matchups on the slate. The Reds will hand the ball to Nick Lodolo, who has been a personal favorite of mine all season. Lodolo has done nothing but excel at the major league level since making his debut in 2022, and he owns a 2.92 ERA and 3.00 xERA through nine starts this season.

The Guardians will counter with Tanner Bibee. His traditional metrics aren’t quite as impressive on the surface, but the pitch modeling metrics love him. Bibee ranks sixth among qualified starters in Pitching+, trailing only Jared Jones, Corbin Burnes, Zach Wheeler, Tanner Houck, and Tarik Skubal. That’s pretty damn good company.

Both of these teams are strong offensively, but I give the pitchers the edge in this spot. I like the under in the first five innings.

More MLB Bets for Wednesday, June 12

Yankees-Royals Over 10.5 (-115)

This is a massive total for a game not taking place at Coors Field, but the weather report looks amazing for the offenses. There are expected to be strong winds blowing out to left field, while the temperature looks hot and humid. All of those are ideal factors for home runs. The pitchers in this spot are also questionable, with Cody Poteet (5.47 xERA) and Dan Altavilla getting the nod for their respective squads. Altavilla has pitched just 37.1 innings at the big league level since 2019, and he owns a 5.54 ERA in that time frame.

Spencer Schwellenbach Under 3.5 strikeouts (+100)

Spencer Schwellenbach is one of the Braves' top pitching prospects, and they’re going to need him to step up with Spencer Strider out for the year. So far, Schwellenbach has been uninspiring. He’s pitched to an 8.38 ERA in two outings, although his 3.78 xERA is significantly better. From a strikeout perspective, his 20.0% strikeout rate leaves a lot to be desired. He’s going to struggle to rack up punchouts against an Orioles’ offense that ranks 22nd in strikeout rate vs. right-handers. They also have the potential to knock Schwellenbach out early, so Under 3.5 strikeouts has value.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 2-1 (+0.475 units)
  • Season: 134-139-6 (-10.32 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.