As usual, Wednesday features a nice mix of afternoon and evening MLB contests. Nine games are currently scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET or earlier, while seven games are slated for 6:35 p.m. ET or later. That includes a doubleheader for the Braves and Cardinals after getting rained out on Tuesday.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite options for Wednesday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Wednesday, June 26

New York Mets ML vs. New York Yankees (+110; FanDuel)

The Mets have been scorching hot recently. They’ve won 14 of their past 18 games, and their offense has been the best in baseball over that stretch. That’s not an exaggeration: they lead the league in wRC+ during the month of June.

They erupted for nine runs in the first game of the Subway Series, and most of that damage came against a former Cy Young winner in Gerrit Cole. They’ll face another tough starter Wednesday in Luis Gil, but Gil is coming off a disastrous outing in his last start. The Orioles tagged him for seven runs in just 1.1 innings, so Gil doesn’t feel quite as unhittable as he did previously.

On the other side, the Mets will send Sean Manaea to the bump. Manaea is the definition of a league-average pitcher, but he at least benefits from being left-handed. The Yankees have been the best offense in baseball against right-handers this season, but they dip to 13th in wRC+ vs. southpaws.

We saw another Mets’ left-hander get the best of the Yankees hitters on Tuesday, and I like Manaea to follow suit. Fade Grimace at your own risk.

Arizona Diamondbacks ML vs. Minnesota Twins (+106; FanDuel)

Ryne Nelson has had a rough season for the Diamondbacks. His ERA is above 5.00, and most of his underlying metrics are uninspiring. Specifically, he’s one of the worst strikeout pitchers in baseball, ranking in the eighth percentile or worse in strikeout rate and Whiff rate.

Still, Nelson doesn’t look that bad from a pitch modeling perspective. He ranks 46th in Pitching+ among 116 pitchers with at least 60 innings, and his command is well above average. Ultimately, he’s someone who could improve as the season progresses.

Simeon Woods-Richardson is on the opposite end of the spectrum. He’s outperformed most of his peripherals this season, but he’s been fortunate in both BABIP (.264) and strand rate (76.7%). His xFIP is more than a full run higher than his current ERA, so he’s a prime regression candidate moving forward.

I’m happy to buy low on Nelson and sell high on Woods-Richardson in this spot. Getting the DBacks as home underdogs makes a lot of sense.

More MLB Bets for Wednesday, June 26

Dodgers-White Sox F5 Under 4.5 (-130)

After a hot start on Tuesday, these offenses ultimately fizzled down the stretch. They combined for zero runs over the final five frames, and I’m expecting that to continue into Wednesday. The White Sox have struggled to hit all season – they’re dead last in runs per game – but they’ll have one of their better starters on the mound in Erick Fedde. He’s a completely different pitcher after returning to the MLB following a one-year hiatus in Korea, pitching to a 3.05 ERA and 3.40 xERA through 16 starts. He should be able to keep the Dodgers’ bats at bay.

Roansy Contreras Over 2.5 strikeouts (+145)

Roansy Contreras has pitched out of the bullpen since being acquired by the Angels in May, but he will make his first start on Wednesday. It’s a good spot, with the Pirates posting the fifth-highest strikeout rate against right-handers this season. There’s always risk in targeting a player making his first start, but manager Ron Washington told reporters he’s hoping to get four to five innings out of Contreras vs. the Pirates. Contreras has averaged right around a strikeout per inning, so that should be enough to get to three punchouts.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 1-3 (-0.985 units)
  • Season: 142-150-7 (-12.37 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.