Wednesdays are always a solid day for baseball, with a strong mix of afternoon and evening contests. Seven games will get underway at 4:10 p.m. ET or earlier, while nine games will start at 6:35 p.m. ET or later.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite betting options for Wednesday’s slate.

MLB Bets Today – Picks for Wednesday, May 29

Washington Nationals ML at Atlanta Braves (+130; BetMGM)

Things have not gone to plan for the Braves to start this season. They’re still a very respectable 31-21, but that puts them on pace for “just” 96.5 wins. That would put them well below their preseason over/under, and with the Phillies massively exceeding expectations, they may have to settle for a Wild Card spot instead of the NL East crown. The Braves also recently lost Ronald Acuna Jr. for the year, so it’s been far from an ideal start.

Things don’t figure to get any easier for them on Wednesday. They’ll be facing MacKenzie Gore, who has had a solid year for the Nationals. He owns a 3.04 ERA and a 3.63 xERA, while his strikeout numbers are all well above average. The Braves’ offense hasn’t been quite as good this season against left-handed pitchers, so it’s a spot where they could struggle to score runs.

If that happens, they’re not likely to get a ton of help from their starting pitcher. Spencer Schwellenbach will be making the jump straight from Double-A to make his first start at the major league level. He only had two starts above High-A before getting the call-up, so this is as aggressive a promotion as you’ll ever see. Schwellenbach has had plenty of success in the minor leagues, but he’s never faced hitters like he’ll see on Wednesday.

+130 feels like a good price tag to fade someone making their first career MLB start. Schwellenbach may be a good pitcher, but it probably won’t happen right away.

Los Angeles Dodgers-New York Mets F5 Under 4.5 (+100; Caesars)

The Dodgers-Mets F5 Under came through for me on Tuesday, and I’m going right back to the well on Wednesday. Both of these teams will have left-handers on the bump, which immediately puts both offenses on the back foot. The Mets are merely 20th in wRC+ vs. southpaws, while the Dodgers have been slightly less effective in that split recently.

As for the pitchers themselves, David Peterson will be making his first start of the year for the Mets. Peterson struggled in the majors last season, but he had a sub-4.00 ERA and xERA the year prior. He’s been dominant while rehabbing through the minor leagues this season, allowing just three earned runs across 23.2 innings. Going from minor league hitters to the Dodgers is obviously a huge step up in competition, but Peterson is a better pitcher than his 2023 numbers suggest.

On the other side, James Paxton is someone who I have been fading this season. His advanced metrics aren’t nearly as impressive as his actual ones, but they’ve yet to bite him. Against a Mets’ offense that has struggled to produce against southpaws, I don’t think this is the spot where it happens.

Ultimately, the first five under feels a bit underpriced. I’d play it up to -110.

More MLB Bets for Wednesday, May 29

Cubs F5 ML vs. Brewers (-158)

Shota Imanaga isn’t catching anyone by surprise anymore, but I still don’t think he’s getting the respect he deserves. Case in point: he’s only -158 vs. the Brewers on the first five moneyline on Wednesday. Imanaga gives the Cubs a significant pitching advantage over Bryse Wilson, who has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this season (2.86 ERA; 4.44 xERA). The Cubs have also been slightly better offensively than the Brewers in their current splits (96 wRC+ vs. 92).

Astros-Mariners Under 7.0 (+102)

This is a really low total, but we just saw these two teams combine for six runs on Tuesday. If anything, Wednesday’s starting pitcher matchup is even stronger, so it would not be a shock to see another low-scoring affair. Justin Verlander may not be the same pitcher he was in his prime, but he still owns a respectable 3.79 xERA. George Kirby ranks 13th among qualified starters in Pitching+, so he’s significantly better than his current ERA suggests.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 3-0 (+1.5 units)
  • Season: 105-116-6 (-15.96 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.