In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
New week, same work ethic. Hey everybody! Hope you had a wonderful weekend, chock full of delicious leftovers and exciting football games. We’re coming off another group of strong Week 13 reads for anyone tailing Sunday’s Blitz, going 7-3 on our post-writeup leans. Not too shabby … that’ll play.
However, like many laid plans of mice and men, we remember the misses more than anything. And of, course, the seemingly clearest swings totally whiffed. I didn’t think Pittsburgh had it in them to hang in a high-octane shootout. And the Texans? To borrow a term from my fellow Fantasy Life compadre Ian Hartitz … Sheesh! Stroud missed every intended target for an entire first half as Houston inexplicably sputtered to just 6 points through two quarters. And just as the cover seemed secure with about five minutes remaining, the rug gets pulled and I go flying—Mac Jones to Parker Washington transforms into the legendary battery of Joe Montana and Jerry Rice to play spoiler.
It’s all about remaining positive and malleable in our analysis—now let’s get back to stacking dubs.
Monday Night NFL Blitz, Browns (3-8) at Broncos (7-5): In another sector of the multiverse, tonight’s MNF clash carries even more implications than our current plane of reality. Led by folk legend Jameis Winston, the Brownies head toward the mountains to meet the Broncos. Talk about your all-time surprises on the Denver side. It took only a matter of months to go from making fun of an organization for its methodology to estimating the virility of its immediate competitive window.
Trading premium draft picks out of pocket for a head coach seemed crazy at first. Well, they’re crazy alright. Crazy like a fox. The Broncos are going to come in focused on a critical spot tonight. They currently sit in the final AFC playoff slot if the season ended today—a game and a half ahead of the Colts, who won yesterday, and whom they’ll face in Week 15. Playoffs start early this year at Mile High, and I can assure you Sean Payton isn’t taking this slight cushion for granted.
Denver entered the season projecting very strong defensively on expectations of a bounceback (production is notoriously not sticky year over year). And that’s absolutely come to fruition—only the Ravens have topped +26 points against them all season. This Broncos unit’s resume continues to build, ranking in the top 3 overall for all intents and purposes, with an argument for the No. 1 spot outright. No denying it, DEN’s macros pop across the spectrum.
- 16.8 Points Allowed Per Game: 3rd
- 296.0 Yards Allowed Per Game: 3rd
- 4.7 Yards Allowed Per Play: T-1st
- +0.13 Defensive EPA/Play: T-1st
- 57.0% Tackle Success Rate: 3rd
- 2.4 Snaps Per Splash Play: 1st
- 39.3% Pressure Rate: 3rd
- 24 INT: 2nd
Similarly, we expected Cleveland’s D to drive their shoulder into the wheel and carry the Browns after leading the NFL in EPA by a mile last season. But as I mentioned, year-over-year defensive carryover is unpredictable—between roster turnover, schematic changes, and a slew of unquantifiable variables, it’s a nightmare to nail down accurately. And injuries to starters at all three levels certainly haven’t helped. CLE has allowed over 100 points across their last four games, including supposedly soft spots versus the hobbled Saints and Steelers in the snow. I worry Jim Schwartz’s hyper-aggressive man-heavy under, Cover-1 up-top approach cannot work when not at full strength. It puts an inordinate amount of pressure on backups to cover and/or make solo tackles without help.
On offense, things shake out way more closely than the year-to-date metrics would lead you to believe. Remember, that initial stretch of seven games the Haslams subjected us to with Deshaun Watson under center bordered on criminal. I cannot remember a worse stretch from a paid starting QB—and living in New York I’ve had the distinct displeasure of watching the Jets and Giants up close. Jameis plays with his hair on fire and we love him for it. And exciting as he is on a weekly basis, that same erraticism creates volatility and a potential floor as low as anyone’s.
Is it a cop-out to say I’m 100% in line with books? DEN’s a clear 6-point favorite, even with me trying to digest the fact the Broncos boast the third-highest average margin of victory this season at 16 points. As much as those Winston pregame speeches get me ready to spear-tackle the wall, I think CLE gets outlasted in prime time. LEAN: DEN -5.5 (-122)
A Happy Monday to all of you from everyone here at the Betting Life newsletter! Don’t be shy, contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you! We’re here to help!
You can also use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Running Against The Wind: Bo Knows Rush Props
- A Warm Reception: His Name … Number Two
- Sharp Hunter: Where are the Sharps leaning on MNF?
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👑 Who will get crowned? Claudia and Thor look at this week’s Conference Championships and Futures Bets.
👀 The Week 13 Instant NFL Recap with Ian and Dwain breaks down all the Sunday action and helps you look ahead.
🚀 Will Jameis Winston be throwing early and often? Here are the Monday Night Football Player Props to find out how often.
🤔 What will Jerry Jeudy do in his revenge game? Don’t laugh, just check out LaMarca’s breakdown for tonight’s Monday Night Football game.
🔮 Where are we leaning in the Packers-Lions NFC North slugfest? LaMarca identifies some Early Week 14 Betting Odds.
Running Against The Wind🏃🏽♂️🏈—Bo Knows Rush Props
THE BET: Bo Nix Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-110) FanDuel
Styles make fights and we’re potentially set up for a type of trench warfare unseen since the time of Otto von Bismarck (a little nugget for our history buffs out there). If we had an amalgamated statistic for unregulated balls-to-the-walls aggression on defense, Jim Schwartz’s Browns would rank atop the list.
43.0% Pressure Rate: 1st
13.5 Hurries Per Game: 3rd
11.5 QB Hits Per Game: T-1st
9.7% Sack Rate: 3rd
4.3 Sacks Per Game: 1st
Theory of this case is simple enough—when the going gets tough, the rookie starts running. Granted, Bo Nix ran for only 15 total yards in his last three games, and that’s fine—he’s not only versatile but willing to hang in the pocket. What I mean to say is basing projections off a recent bearish channel in rush attempts may be misleading. Neither the Raiders nor Falcons forced Nix into scramble mode, something I’m expecting a ton of today.
Conversely, the rookie’s shown the wherewithal to tuck and run when the occasion calls for it (image below). In fact, Nix has five individual runs longer than tonight’s 20-yard rushing prop, which is also 5 yards fewer per game than what the Browns allowed this season.
A Warm Reception🔥🏈—His Name … Number Two
THE BET: Devaughn Vele Over 3.5 Receptions (+100) FanDuel
Every week, there’s always one prop leaving me scratching my head with a willingness to bet on it “just because.” Of course, I’d never leave you hanging in doubt like that. The thing is, the public generally lags to catch up on the most deeply unsexy offenses. I get it, Denver doesn’t really have any stars on that side of the ball and even casual fantasy players might struggle to name a pass catcher other than Courtland Sutton. And that’s where we come in…
Particularly in a case like Denver (new coach plus rookie QB) it’s important to gauge trajectory in anticipation, rather than relying on year-to-date stats for predictive qualities. Squint closely at the Broncos’ offense and you’ll notice Sean Payton getting away from 2-TE sets. Is it because their tight ends kinda stink or because Nix is more comfortable reading pressure packs, therefore requiring one less body in protection? I don’t know but one thing is fairly certain—Devaughn Vele usurped the secondary role in the pass attack.
The seventh-round rookie out of Utah exploded in his debut for 8 grabs before getting knocked out with a rib injury that cost him a full month. Since then, Vele has trailed only Sutton in route participation, targets, catches, and yards.
The charted increase in both total targets (above) and targets/route (below) reminds me of a certain crypto boom. Not to mention we’re expecting Cleveland to bring the kitchen sink as always, potentially leaving room underneath for Vele to operate from the slot where he’s been especially effective.
Sharps See Only Green in Browns-Broncos on MNF
Source: Sharp Hunter
I associate colors like red and white, and even green with the Christmas season.
Our first Monday Night game of December has a very orange feeling, as the Broncos host the Browns on Monday Night Football.
At Sharp Hunter—we’re looking for winners—no matter what the uniform color or the season.
As for Monday, the Broncos are a 6-point home favorite in a game with a consensus total of 42 as of Sunday night.
We’re tracking thousands of sharp bets at the aforementioned Sharp Hunter—and our sharps want to bet the road dog Browns in this spot. We’re showing a Two-Bag Sharp Score on Cleveland to back that up.
Looking at just DVOA, Denver is the better team. Clearly.
- DVOA: DEN No. 10, CLE No. 31
- DVOA OFFENSE: DEN No. 19, CLE No. 32
- DVOA DEFENSE DEN No. 4, CLE No. 32
A deeper dive into DVOA shows the Browns playing the ninth-toughest schedule in the NFL while the Broncos’ DVOA SOS is No. 25. You can make the argument that the Browns are more battle-tested.
The Browns are healthy on the DL and have gotten pressure all season—Rookie Bo Nix has improved every month (and we’ve bet him a bunch in this space)—but now he’s facing an aggressive defense in a big spot. I like the Cleveland D here.
How about this trend from Action Network—betting against teams who last played a road game in Las Vegas over the last five seasons gets you a 23-12-1 record ATS— 66%!
Of course, Denver lost a close one in Vegas last weekend.
These two teams are not that close on DVOA.
But the Browns have faced a tougher schedule—and Jameis Winston has been an improvement over Deshaun Watson at QB for the Browns.
The sharps at Sharp Hunter are taking the Browns and the 6 points.
If I’m betting on Monday—I’m with the sharps. These teams feel close enough where I’d want the 6 points and the road dog.
