As the 2023 NFL season approaches, we can start placing some bets on player futures. 

In this article, we'll dive into four player futures that can make us some money this season based on the current lines compared to our Fantasy Life projections.

Derek Carr Over 3,800.5 Passing Yards

The veteran QB out of Fresno State will be playing in a new city for the first time in his NFL career since being drafted by the Raiders in 2014. 

From a purely statistical standpoint, Derek Carr is the best QB in Raiders history. He ranks first all-time in passing yards (35,222) and first all-time in TD passes thrown (217). Carr also ranks first in completion percentage and game-winning drives among Raiders QBs. 

With all that being true, why did Las Vegas move on from the 32-year-old signal caller this offseason? 

The Raiders are entering a rebuilding phase, and they clearly felt that having Carr on the team would not benefit them. So instead, the New Orleans Saints lucked out and were able to acquire a motivated veteran QB heading into 2023.

Derek Carr Passing Yards

  • 2014: 3,270
  • 2015: 3,987
  • 2016: 3,937
  • 2017: 3,496
  • 2018: 4,049
  • 2019: 4,054
  • 2020: 4,103
  • 2021: 4,804
  • 2022: 3,522

There's been a QB carousel in New Orleans since the retirement of future Hall of Fame QB Drew Brees.

Brees was the Saints' starting QB from 2007-2020, but since 2020, New Orleans has had five different QBs start a game. The team is hopeful that they can rely on Carr as the lone starter for 2023 and the foreseeable future.

Derek Carr

Jun 13, 2023; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) passes the ball during minicamp at the Ochsner Sports Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

New Orleans has been one of the most successful franchises in all of football since 2010, but the last two years in the Big Easy have been disappointing. The Saints are hopeful that with the addition of Carr, this team can find their way back into the postseason. 

Carr has gone over this season-long prop in six of his nine seasons in the NFL. It's also important to note that he will have an additional game this season that he did not have in the years he has gone over this number.

In 2022, Carr also likely would have hit the over on this passing total had he not missed the final two games. Instead, he just missed and ended last season with 3,522 passing yards. 

It helps that he's set up for success in this offense heading into 2023, as the Saints have one of the best WR corps in the league led by Chris Olave and Michael Thomas. He'll also have one of the game's best receiving backs at his disposal in Alvin Kamara.

If you break this prop down, we only need Carr to throw for an average of 223.6 yards per game, and he's averaged 248 passing yards per game thus far in his nine-year career.

Nine years is a large sample size, and playing in the worst division in football this season, there's a good chance that Carr will go over this 3,800.5 passing yardage total and our projections agree with me, as we have him sitting at 3,814.9 passing yards for the season.

Lamar Jackson Over 22.5 Passing TDs

Lamar Jackson will be back under center for the Baltimore Ravens in what could be the most favorable situation of his career in purple and black.

The Ravens extended Jackson earlier this offseason after some brief uncertainty about his future.

Last season was hectic for the five-year veteran, as Jackson dealt with multiple injuries that cut his season short on top of the contract questions. Still, Jackson had made it clear that he wanted to be a Raven, but only under a long-term contract, and this took some time to develop.

Now the former MVP has his long-term deal, and Jackson will have an opportunity to work with possibly the best group of pass-catchers he's had in his career.

Lamar Jackson Passing TDs

  • 2018: 6 
  • 2019: 36
  • 2020: 26
  • 2021: 16
  • 2022: 17

Baltimore made it a point of emphasis to get help at the WR position after ranking 30th in total receiving yards as a team in 2022. The Ravens signed former Super Bowl champion Odell Beckham Jr., who's poised to have a strong bounce-back season after having missed all of 2022 due to injuries.

On top of that, the Ravens used their first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to select Zay Flowers. The addition of Flowers should further bolster their WR depth chart, as will the return of a healthy Rashod Bateman from his 2022 foot injury.

And finally, Pro Bowl TE Mark Andrews remains a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses and should continue to be a go-to receiving option for Jackson in 2023.

Lamar Jackson

Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end Roy Robertson-Harris (95) reaches in on Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) during the first quarter of a regular season NFL football matchup Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. Photo Credit: Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Unio / USA TODAY NETWORK

Jackson has gone over this 22.5 passing TD total in his first two full seasons as a starter, though he's gone under this total in the last two years. 

Injuries have played a large factor, as Jackson has played only 12 games in each of the last two seasons, resulting in just 16 and 17 passing TDs, respectively, in 2021 and 2022. Had he played full seasons these last two years, it's very likely that Jackson would've eclipsed this passing TD total.

The bottom line here is that if Jackson can play 15 or more games this coming season, history suggests that he'll be able to clear this total with ease. 

Baltimore's additions at WR and the coaching change from Greg Roman to Todd Monken at offensive coordinator give Jackson an opportunity to return to MVP form, so I like the idea of tailing our projection (23.9) and hitting the over on 22.5 passing TDs for him in 2023.

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Rhamondre Stevenson Over 6.5 Rushing TDs

Rhamondre Stevenson should take over the lead role in this New England Patriots backfield for Bill Belichick this coming year.

New England drafted the former Oklahoma Sooner in the fourth round in 2021, and Stevenson elevated his play in 2022 as the Patriots' primary RB, passing Damien Harris on the depth chart.

The team moved on from Harris this offseason, and he subsequently signed with a divisional rival, the Bills. Heading into 2023, Stevenson projects for a bulk of the touches in this backfield.

The Patriots are currently slated to finish dead last in the AFC East, and it's been a tough couple of years since the departure of future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady. 

Mac Jones is likely to be the team's starter, and this could be a prove-it kind of season for Jones as the team evaluates him as a potential franchise QB and heir to Brady.

Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing TDs

  • 2021: 5 
  • 2022: 5

Although the Patriots' overall offensive efficiency is questionable heading into 2023, Stevenson can still exceed this 6.5 rushing TD line.

After all, even in a dismal New England offense last year, Stevenson was still productive on the ground. In addition to his five rushing TDs, he logged his first 1,000-yard rushing season in 2022, ending the year with 1,040 rushing yards.

Rhamondre Stevenson

Nov 20, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) runs with the ball against New York Jets cornerback Michael Carter II (30) during the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

In 2023, Stevenson projects for more volume as the clear lead back with Harris gone, and the Patriots don't have any other proven RBs on the depth chart. In an offense that loves to run the football, Stevenson projects to lead the backfield in carries over the likes of Kevin Harris and Pierre Strong.

Prior to last season, the Patriots ranked top-10 in rushing attempts per game, and I fully expect New England to get back to that style of play on offense in 2023, which should significantly benefit Stevenson.

An increase in red-zone rushing attempts in particular should also lead to more TD opportunities for Stevenson, so I like the over on his 6.5 rushing TD total despite our projection being just a touch lower (6.4).

Odell Beckham Jr. Over 575.5 Receiving Yards

This next one is undoubtedly the riskiest of these player futures, but it could actually be the easiest one to cash, as it mainly depends simply on Beckham's health in 2023.

If Beckham can play all 17 games this season, I expect him to smash this receiving total, as he would need to average just 33.8 receiving yards per game.

In his career thus far, Beckham has averaged 76.7 receiving yards per game.

Odell Beckham Receiving Yards

  • 2014: 1,305
  • 2015: 1,450
  • 2016: 1,367
  • 2017: 302
  • 2018: 1,052
  • 2019: 1,035
  • 2020: 319
  • 2021: 537

I am fully aware that the 2023 version of Beckham may not be his prime, but the last time we saw him play as a member of the Super Bowl Champion Rams, he flashed on plays that indicated he could still be a high-level playmaker.

Odell Beckham

Feb 13, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (3) makes a catch for a touchdown against Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) in the first quarter in Super Bowl LVI at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The situation for Beckham couldn't be much better either, as he joins a Ravens squad that desperately needs help at the WR position. In Baltimore, he'll have an opportunity to work with a refocused Lamar Jackson who finally got paid.

The target share for Beckham projects to be high as the No. 2 target behind only Mark Andrews, and even an older Beckham should still be able to reach this receiving total if healthy.

He's produced some great years in the NFL over the duration of his career, and Beckham has gone over the 1,000-yard receiving mark in each season where he's played at least 12 games.

All we need from Beckham in 2023 is 10 healthy games, and he should be able to easily hit the over on 575.5 receiving yards. This bet also correlates well with the Jackson passing TD bet above, as a healthy Beckham would likely help his QB pass for more TDs.

You can bet on Beckham to bounce back and take advantage of the First Bet Offer on BetMGM to get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Sign up below and place your QB passing yardage bets today!

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