Geoff Ulrich and Matt LaMarca are here to guide you through the best bets and picks for NFL Christmas Day below:

Christmas used to be a day dominated by basketball—and family, I suppose—but last year changed the game. Christmas happened to fall on a Sunday, and the NFL unsurprisingly saw massive ratings with their three games.

The holiday falls on a Wednesday this year, but that’s not stopping the NFL from keeping the new tradition going. They’ve added two games to the Christmas schedule for this season, featuring the same four teams that played on Saturday in Week 16. The Chiefs will travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers, while the Ravens and Texans will duke it out in Houston. Ultimately, it’s a couple of additional presents for NFL fans and bettors to unwrap during the holiday season.

Geoff Ulrich and I are here to serve as your elves for these contests and break down which teams have been naughty and nice, with Geoff tackling the Ravens tilt and I'll hit on the Chiefs game below.

Let’s dive into our favorite betting options for the two-game Christmas slate.

NFL Christmas Bets For Chiefs vs Steelers

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers Pick

  • Spread: Chiefs -2.0
  • Total: O/U 43.0
  • The Pick: Chiefs -2.0 (-110; BetMGM)

I have been pretty successfully fading the Chiefs as favorites all season. Their biggest struggles have come when favored by more than a field goal. They’re merely 3-7-1 when favored by 3.5 or more this season, and they’re 24-37-2 in that split dating back to the start of the 2020 season.

However, the Chiefs have managed to cover in back-to-back games in this split, and it’s possible that they’ve become slightly undervalued in the betting market. The public was notably on the Texans in Week 16, so they’ve become aware of how poor the Chiefs have been at covering this season. Once the general public knows about a trend, it’s probably time to start pivoting in the other direction.

Additionally, the Chiefs are not sizable favorites in this game. They’re not even favored by a full field goal, and Patrick Mahomes has historically been deadly in that split. He’s only played 12 games as a favorite of a field goal or less, and he’s 8-4 ATS in those contests.

Essentially, the Chiefs being favored by less than a field goal means they’re probably going to cover if they win outright. That’s why three is considered a “key number”. There are very few wins by fewer than three points each year. Of course, that’s not to say it doesn’t happen, but they’re ultimately pretty rare.

The Chiefs may not be as good as they’ve been in years past, but should they beat the Steelers? Absolutely. Pittsburgh has been outclassed in back-to-back weeks, losing by 14-plus points to the Eagles and Ravens. This game will be at home after back-to-back road contests, but there’s no real step down in competition.

The Steelers are also still at less than 100%. George Pickens missed his third consecutive game on Saturday, and his status for Christmas is still very much up in the air. With Pickens out of the lineup, it has taken a lot of sting out of the Steelers’ offense.

The Bills picking up the win on Sunday also means the Chiefs are still playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They’ll only need to win one of their final two games to get it done, but I’m sure they’d like to wrap it up as early as possible. That gives the team the luxury of being able to rest their starters in Week 18 if they so choose.

Player Prop Bets for Chiefs vs Steelers

Patrick Mahomes Over 35.5 pass attempts (-120; FanDuel)

I’m going to continue to take advantage of Mahomes’ passing attempts props, which have been too low for nearly two months. The Chiefs have gone much more pass-heavy over the second half of the year, and Mahomes has attempted at least 36 passes in eight of his past nine games. Add in the fact that this game could be competitive, and I think Mahomes gets there pretty comfortably.

Hollywood Brown Over 37.5 receiving yards (-110; BetMGM)

One of my favorite ways to use the Prop Finder is to identify big discrepancies in the market. That’s the case with Brown this week, whose receiving prop on MGM is four yards lower than it is on FanDuel at the time of writing. Brown has the potential to be a legit game-changer for the Chiefs’ offense. He wasn’t on the field a ton in his first game back—he had just a 33% route participation, per our Utilization Report Game Log—but he was targeted on a whopping 53% of his routes run. Brown should see his volume ramp up before the playoffs, and he should be the team’s No. 1 receiver by the end of the year. This feels like a phenomenal buy-low opportunity.

Najee Harris Under 12.5 carries (-112; FanDuel)

We have seen Harris in negative game scripts in back-to-back weeks, and the results have not been pretty. He failed to crack double-digit carries against the Eagles and Ravens, and he could be looking at a similar workload vs. KC. Jaylen Warren tends to be on the field more in passing situations, so he tends to fare much better as a favorite than an underdog.

Find More Props with Our Player Prop Tool

NFL Christmas Day Bets For Ravens vs Texans

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans Pick

  • Spread: Ravens -4.5
  • Total: O/U 47.5
  • The Pick: Ravens (-4.0)

The Ravens will visit the Texans this week in a Week 17 matchup in Houston.

Despite the Texans leading their division, they remain the underdogs in this spot, with the line moving from -2.5 to -4.0 or 4.5 in places. The Texans have had about as disappointing a 9-6 season as you could possibly imagine. Their one win over an elite team came back in Week 5 vs the Bills (23-20) and they’re 0-3 in their last three matchups against winning teams.

You can’t begrudge Houston for beating bad teams or just being a more professional team/franchise than many of the NFL squads they’ve taken on this season but more was expected. C.J. Stroud has regressed in a big way in year two and currently ranks 25th in EPA per play at QB.

Stroud’s play has been inconsistent but you can’t blame him for all of the Texans issues. Their O-Line has been terrible and they’ve now allowed the 5th most sacks per game this season. Their defense has remained a top unit (4th in EPA per play) but they have been susceptible to lapses.

In the betting markets, they’ve been somewhat overvalued overall, going 6-7-2 ATS on the season.

The Ravens have put up more elite numbers on offense than the Texans, with Lamar Jackson having another MVP-caliber season. He’s 3rd in EPA per play and is coming off a game where he averaged 9.0 yards per attempt and threw for 3 TDs. Overall, he’s thrown for 10 TDs over his last three games.

Jackson aside, the Ravens have also started to turn things up defensively. They’ve allowed just 5.5 yards per attempt to opposing QBs over their last three games after a slow start to the season and are 4th in EPA per rush. They only have one more win than the Texans but have far more convincing wins on their record and have won their last two games by 17 and 21 points.

Player Prop Bets for Ravens vs Texans

Dalton Schultz over 33.5 receiving yards (-113; FanDuel)

I logged an over on Schultz in our Free NFL Bet Tracker on Monday. These lines seem likely to move upwards during the week after the injury to Tank Dell left the Texans more shorthanded at receiver. 

Houston could also be without John Metchie (the likely replacement for Dell) so could be even more shorthanded than people realize. 

Schultz is a solid enough pass-catching TE who has a good relationship with Stroud. They’ve connected for 5 receptions in three of the past five games the Texans have played and I can’t see Houston not relying on him even more in this matchup with Dell out. The Ravens are near impossible to stop, which should help Schultz’s volume, and they also don’t cover the middle of the field that well, having allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to opposing TEs. 

Make sure you shop around as our NFL Prop Finder Tool was showing a significantly lower line at FanDuel than other books on Monday. 

 

To find more of the best available prices like you see above, check out our Player Prop Finder below!

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