The UFC returns from the Labor Day break with another Fight Night card taking place at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The 12-fight card is headlined by two welterweight contenders, No. 6 ranked Gilbert Burns and No. 8 ranked Sean Brady.
I expect the dogs to be barking inside the Apex, and I’m putting my money down to back it up. Let’s dive right into this week’s UFC Best Bets.
BEST BET FOR GILBERT BURNS VS. SEAN BRADY
Gilbert Burns ML (+165; BetMGM)
We get another high-level main event for an Apex card that mirrors the vibes of the Cannonier-Borralho matchup. However, I’m convinced this one plays out much differently.
Brady (16-1) is one of the welterweight division’s top prospects. The Philadelphia native was opening eyes while surging up the rankings before suffering the first loss of his career to current champion, Belal Muhammad. It’s a loss that aged well, but Burns is the perfect opponent to test whether Brady has improved enough to crack into the top five.
I am betting Brady isn’t quite ready. Brady’s win condition is predicated solely on getting Burns on his back. That’s a dangerous game to play with a submission specialist of Burns’ caliber. Despite Burns’ capabilities to hold his own off on the mat, his scrambling should force Brady to spend the majority of the fight standing. “Durinho” has recent experience against high-level wrestlers in Muhammad, Kamaru Usman, and Khamzat Chimaev. All three fights played out primarily on the feet, where Burns has a decisive edge over Brady.
The market has been moving directionally against us, making a play on the underdog even more enticing. Burns' two-fight skid is a little overstated considering he was up the scorecards before Jack Della Maddalena’s improbable knockout. I will take the extra value and run.
More Predictions for UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
Kyle Nelson ML vs. Steve Garcia (+154; DraftKings)
You're going to get everything you expect from a war between “Mean Machine” and “The Monster”.
Something has to give when Steve Garcia’s four-fight winning streak clashes with Kyle Nelson, who is on a three-fight heater of his own. As you would expect, it’s been one-way traffic on the under (1.5 rounds), pushing the implied odds past 64% that this one ends before the midway point of the fight. Violence is coming--so buckle up.
I’m sure you've heard me speak of his before, but variance is the secret ingredient of live underdogs. Whenever you have two fighters willing to participate in a chin-checking contest, there is naturally more of a coin-flip element than your typical MMA fight. It only takes one shot to close the show. More times than not, I want a plus-money ticket in my pocket unless there is a significant edge on the other side.
I see Nelson as the sharper, more strategic fighter. It doesn’t hurt that Nelson can rely on his grappling to change the tempo in case he gets rocked early. Also, Nelson was previously preparing to face a Top-10 opponent (Calvin Kattar), so I’m expecting the best version of his recently improved boxing.
This one should be lined closer in the range of (-130/+110). Garcia closed as a -163 favorite in his last bout versus SeungWoo Choi, who is on a 1-4 run that includes a knockout loss to Michael Trizano. This time around, the market has installed “Mean Machine” as an even bigger favorite against a much tougher opponent in Nelson. This is too much of a leap for Garcia to justify the current odds.
Zygimantas Ramaska ML vs. Nathan Fletcher (+114; FanDuel)
Some would say you have to be sick to bet the opening fight on the card. If that’s the case--I don't ever want to get well.
Not only does it get the blood pumping, but there is sneaky value in going after fighters who haven’t fully evolved. That’s the case with both Zygimantas Ramaska and Nathan Fletcher, however, the ceiling is much higher with the underdog.
Ramaska is the much more explosive striker. His record tells the story-- nine finishes in nine career wins. The second the ref says “fight”, the 27-year-old Lithuanian wields everything in his arsenal all at once. After watching him unleash a wide array of front kicks or winging overhand rights, you'll be convinced there is a five-year-old behind the curtain smashing buttons on a controller.
Fletcher’s methodical wrestling is why he's listed as the favorite. However, Fletcher will have to eat some big shots from distance, as well as in the clinch, to secure takedowns. Even if Fletcher gets this to the mat, I like Ramaska’s chances of being able to win rounds on damage.
UFC Fight Night Parlay (+355; DraftKings)
- Natalia Silva ML
- Gabriel Santos ML
- Isaac Dulgarian to win by sub
There are only three best bets for this weekend’s card. The good news? The short card enticed me to construct a degen parlay for those looking to take the ride.
Natalia Silva’s striking advantage will be the difference against a stationary opponent like Jéssica Andrade. Silva’s footwork will allow her to pick her apart at a distance and exploit Andrade’s vulnerable submission defense when it hits the mat.
Pairing Silva up with another Brazilian favorite, Gabriel Santos, gives us two legs of clear favorites that can win in multiple ways. Santos can swarm his opponents with both his striking and his submission arsenal. Against Yi Zha, Santos’ volume (4.46-2.82 SLpM) and accuracy edges (55%-44%) will be significant enough factors to cover this price.
Lastly, we wrap with one of the most lopsided matchups in UFC history. We can all agree Isaac Dulgarian (-2400) will steamroll Brendon Marotte. There is no value in the moneyline price, so I'm looking to take advantage of the surprising gap between his KO price (-175) and the odds for him to win via submission (+150).
