This week’s Thursday Night Football matchup should be one of the more interesting of the season. We have a pair of divisional rivals in Miami and Buffalo, who both entered the season with win totals set at 9.5 or greater. Both teams also managed to win their first game, although both trailed for large portions of those contests. 

Buffalo was led by two Josh Allen rushing TDs in their comeback win against Arizona. The Bills ranked second in EPA per play on offense but certainly benefited from their opponent. The Cardinals ranked 31st in defensive EPA per play and were particularly bad against the pass, ranking last in dropback back success rate.

Miami only ranked 22nd in dropback success rate in Week 1 themselves but they did hold Trevor Lawrence to a 57% completion rate and just 6.6 yards per attempt (the Cardinals allowed 9.7 YPA in Week 1).

On the flip side, Miami’s offense got off to an uncharacteristic slow start against the Jaguars but came on strong at the end of the game when needed. Miami’s usually potent run game was effectively shut down by Jacksonville’s front, as they gained just 3.2 YPC in their Week 2 win and ranked 27th in EPA per rush. The Jaguars may be very good against the run, but if the Dolphins don’t bounce back against the Bills, it may be a sign that they’ll need more from their passing game this season to contend. 

Dolphins -2.5 vs. Bills; 48.5 O/U (DraftKings)

Injury notes:

Dolphins 

  • Raheem Mostert (chest) is out
  • De’Von Achane (ankle) missed the walkthrough on Tuesday but did practice on Wednesday. He’s listed as a game-time decision but does appear on track to play
  • WR Malik Washington (thigh) is out

Bills

Spread and Total

The total for this game has moved a little from 1.0 to Miami -2.5. It’s generally an insignificant move in the grand scheme of things as the number is still under 3.0. Miami at home has been a tough place to play for many teams, but not Josh Allen and the Bills. Allen is 10-2 for his career against the Dolphins and 4-2 in games played in Miami. Last year, he threw for over 320 yards in both his games against the Fins, with the Bills dropping 48 points against Miami, in Buffalo, in the Week 4 win. 

There is a solid argument that with Allen on the other side, against a far more limited QB in Tua Tagovailoa, taking the points with Buffalo makes sense. Still, I’m hesitant to take the Bills in this spot. It’s the second week in a row at home for Miami, who fought through a tough Florida matchup in Week 1, and even though they have struggled with the Bills, their home record at this time of the season is worth repeating. Miami under Mike McDaniel is now 4-0 when playing at home between Weeks 1-4, while Tua Tagovailoa is 18-9 ATS for his career in home games. 

With the line up to -2.5, I’m going to stay away for the time being but if it moves back to 1.5 - 1.0 I would look to play Miami either on the moneyline or spread.

From a total perspective, my lean in this case is towards the Under on the 49.0 total. The Bills offense looked terrific in their comeback win, but Miami’s defense is certainly a step up from Arizona’s. The Dolphins run game being so inefficient in Week 1 is also a red flag for me. If De’Von Achane is limited at all that could mean less explosive plays and more sustained drives.

Dolphins vs Bills Best Bets: 

Josh Allen Under 22.5 passing completions (-125; bet365)

This one stuck out to me right from the get-go. Allen has promised not to run as much in 2024 as he did in 2023 but he tucked and ran nine times in Week 1 and showed no signs of being less reckless or limited in his capacity as a runner than he has been in the past.

Even with the Bills having over 30 minutes in Time of Possession and being down for larger portions of the game, Allen still managed just 23 pass attempts and 18 completions. 

While the efficiency is good, the fact the Bills are an explosive offense also limits Allen’s ability to rack up a lot of completions. I also expect his efficiency to go down this week as the Dolphins managed to hold Trevor Lawrence to a 57% completion percentage in Week 1 and they may also slow this game down a bit (much like they did in Week 1) if their run game isn't ripping off big plays. 

Our FantasyLife+ Projections also have this pegged as a great under with Allen projected for 21.0 completions, giving us a decent 8% edge. 

Dalton Kincaid Over 42.5 rec yards (-110, FanDuel)

One thing I love to do as a bettor early on in the season is buy low on stud receivers who are coming off a slow game or two. Kincaid only managed a single catch in Week 1 on two targets, and while it’s not great from an optics standpoint, as laid out in our Utilization Report on Fantasy Life, Kincaid still ran a route on 83% of the plays. 

Bills OC Joe Brady also mentioned that Kincaid was simply being keyed in on by Arizona in the game which forced them to go to other options. Kincaid was a baller down the stretch for the Bills last year posting 45+ yards in his final four games of 2023, so I’m not expecting this slump to be a long one. He also went for 7 rec and 84 yards against the Dolphins in their Week 18 matchup last year. 

We have Kincaid set at 45 yards in our FantasyLife+ projections this week but using our prop finder tool on Fantasy Life, we can see Kincaid’s lines are as low as 42.5, which I’m willing to play.  Kincaid will be a big part of this offense and the yards will show up for him sooner than later.