Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what they came up with for Week 4.
The prop lines for Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore are simply too low.
I'm not much of a narrative bettor, but to me, it seems like the market is expecting the Jets offense to take a sizeable step back with the QB change from Joe Flacco to Zach Wilson.
I'm also not sure if the market needs a reminder, but Zach Wilson has that dog in him...
Let's dive in.
🔥 Garrett Wilson Over 46.5 Receiving Yards -115 BetMGM
In Wilson's short career, he has shown a strong ability to be a target earner, even with limited route participation. And on top of that, he has also been very efficient with turning his targets into pure production.
Last week, Wilson was only on the field for 66% of the Jets total routes and only clocked in with a targets per route run of 16%, but still managed to turn those opportunities into an impressive line of 6 receptions on 7 targets with 85 receiving yards.
This week, while facing off against the Steelers, who have given up the 6th-most fantasy points to opposing WRs, Wilson's receiving line on BetMGM is set at 46.5 yards, a number that he has cleared in all 3 contests this year, via props.cash.
I expect Wilson's receiving props to be significantly higher in future weeks.
🔥 Elijah Moore Over 42.5 Receiving Yards -115 BetMGM
Elijah Moore is an extremely talented WR.
Unlike Wilson, Moore has an elite route participation profile, with a season average of 92% of the Jets total routes.
Also, unlike Wilson, Moore has struggled to earn as high of a targets per route run % as his rookie counterpart, coming in with a season average of 14%, compared to Wilson at 19%.
This means that Moore runs significantly more routes than Wilson, but those routes aren't as specifically designed to get him the ball.
The same reasoning applies here as it did for the Wilson bet above; this line is too low. The market is over-adjusting for the return of Zach Wilson by lowering these receiving lines when in reality, I think it should be the opposite.
I love the comparison between efficiency vs volume, but in this circumstance, both traits should lead to comfortable covers vs the Steelers.
You can track all my action on Pikkit to see the rest of my plays for this weekend’s NFL games.
