The group chat three-way parlay record moved to 5-11 last week. Once again, we went a solid 2-1 on our picks in the Divisional Round, but the Lions/Bucs SGP we put together came up just short as the Bucs couldn’t cover the +6.5.
Hopefully Todd Bowles practices those two-point conversions in the off-season.
We did manage to hit the over on Baker Mayfield and the over on the alternate receiving yardage for Rachaad White—which made coming up one leg short even more painful. Even with the loss, we’re still up +12.68 units overall since this started (assuming one unit bet per parlay).
After going 2-1 on individual plays again last week, we are also now at 33-14-1 on the individual props and bets posted in this section for the year (pretty good!).
- Week 6 recap: +543 ✅
- Week 7 recap: +721 ❌
- Week 8 recap: +666 ❌
- Week 9 recap: +549 ✅
- Week 10 recap: +647 ✅
- Week 11 recap: +560 ❌
- Thanksgiving recap: +522 ❌
- Week 12 recap: +413 ✅
- Week 13 recap: +593 ❌
- Week 14 recap: +508 ❌
- Week 15 recap: +216 ✅
- Week 16 recap: +515 ❌
- Week 17 recap: +529 ❌
- Week 18 recap: +595 ❌
- Wild Card week recap: +400 ❌
- Divisional round recap: +525 ❌
As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our group parlay below (you can play them separately, or put them all together and ride together with us!).
If parlays aren’t your thing, we also have the weekly ladder targets as well. Good luck!
Conference Championship Group Chat (Same Game) Parlay
Just like last week, we’re riding with three picks from the same game (Kansas City vs Baltimore). Most of these plays are already logged in our FREE bet tracker on Fantasy Life as well. However, since our guest appearance bettor from last week was so successful, we’ve invited him back for another round.
Each of these legs can be found in the Same-Game Parlay tab of the Lions/Bucs game on BetMGM.
Ian Hartitz likes: Justice Hill 15+ receiving yards
- Projection: 16.5
- Play to: 15+
Ian’s candle play, round 2!
As Hartitz mentioned on the Betting Life prop pod this week, the Chiefs got burned by James Cook and Latavius Murray in the passing game in the Divisional Round. Hill is also a solid receiver out of the backfield, capable of imitating that success, and projects out with a solid edge to his over.
Matthew Freedman likes: Chiefs at Ravens under 44.5
- Play to: 44.5
Playing unders in outdoor games in the playoffs is definitely a bet that has returned value over the past decade-plus.
“Since 2003, outdoor unders in the postseason are 101-77-5 (9.6% ROI).
And more importantly, we have two top-six defenses, a Chiefs offense that underwhelmed for the entirety of the season, and a Ravens offense that should be able to grind the clock down with its running attack.”
Geoff Ulrich likes: Lamar Jackson under 69.5 rush yards
- Projection: 57.1
- Play to: 65.5
This one is all about fading the fomo that has caused Jackson’s rushing prop to get above 65 yards this week. We have Jackson’s rushing line set in the high 50s, which means there is a pretty significant edge to the under, according to our projections.
I also think it correlates well with an under on the game total and with the Hill receiving over.
Putting it all together: +425, BetMGM
- Justice Hill 15+ receiving yards
- Chiefs/Ravens under 44.5
- Lamar Jackson under 69.5 rush yards
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!
Conference Championship Ladder Plays
Ladder bets are where you spread your unit allocation over different milestones.
The idea is to access bigger payouts while maintaining some exposure to the higher probability outcome lines as well.
The Conference Championship ladder targets are below.
David Montgomery rushing yards - Lions (BetMGM)
- 50+ rush yards (+115)
- 50+ rush yards + TD (+325)
- 75+ rush yards (+360)
- 100+ rush yards (+650)
We saw what Aaron Jones did to this defense last week (18 carries, 108 yards). And while San Francisco has been solid at limiting yards against, in general, they also rank just 24th in rush EPA on the season.
Montgomery will obviously lose some carries to Jahmyr Gibbs, but it hasn’t stopped the Lions from feeding him in key spots this year. The former Bear is averaging 70.4 yards per game on the road this season, and while he’s been held under 75 rush yards in five straight games, he’s also gone over 50 yards rushing in nine of his last 11 starts, and had three games this season where he’s eclipsed the century mark.
Game flow could be a concern, but I expect the Lions to try to stick with the run as much as possible this week. For betting, the +115 odds at 50+ look like a great starting point just given our projections and Montgomery’s trends on the road this year. Combining the 50+ yards with an anytime TD also gives us a great second ladder rung to chase at +325. After that, you can sprinkle lightly on 75+ and 100+ yards coming to fruition.
I don’t necessarily expect Montgomery to hit both of those marks, but at +650 we’re getting 13.33% implied probability that he reaches 100+, a mark he’s hit 3 times over his last 17 games (17.6%).
Ladder bet recommended exposure (1 unit bet):
- 0.50 units – 50+ rush yards (+115)
- 0.25 units – 50+ rush yards + TD (+325)
- 0.15 units – 75+ rush yards (+360)
- 0.1 units 100+ rush yards (+650)
George Kittle receiving yards - 49ers (DraftKings)
- 70+ rec yards (+145)
- 80+ rec yards (+215)
- 70+ rec yards + TD (+310)
- 90+ rec yards (+320)
On top of just being an incredible athlete and after-the-catch receiver, Kittle could easily be in for slightly better usage with Deebo Samuel playing through an injury. And over the last couple of seasons, when Samuel HAS been out for the 49ers, it’s often led to Kittle going nuclear.
While he didn’t score this year in Week 7 or 8 (when Samuel was out), Kittle caught a combined 14 passes in those games. However, last year when Samuel was out, Kittle went nuclear. Over the four games that Samuel missed in 2022, the 30-year-old TE went for over 90 yards twice and caught an incredible 6 TD passes, combined.
January 20, 2024; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85) scores a touchdown against Green Bay Packers safety Darnell Savage (26) during the second quarter in a 2024 NFC divisional round game at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
For betting purposes, the Lions also make for a great opponent for us to look at Kittle's alternate lines. Cade Otton (5-65-1) broke a handful of big plays against them last week, and they rank third last in yards per attempt against over their last three games. Kittle himself has just been a great alternate line target to begin with. He’s gone for 75+ yards in seven of his last 11 games and has gone fo 70+ yards and a TD four times in his last nine games.
Given the spot (49ers at home, Super Bowl trip on the line) I expect no let up from this high-powered San Francisco offense. They’ll go up against the worst pass defense left in the playoffs this week and Kittle should benefit big time.
Ladder bet recommended exposure (1 unit bet):
- 0.40 units – 70+ rec yards (+115)
- 0.25 units – 70+ rec yards + TD (+325)
- 0.25 units – 80+ rec yards (+360)
- 0.10 units 90+ rec yards (+650)
You can tail the Kittle ladder at DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets INSTANTLY when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $5 or more.
Conference Championship Bets from the Bet Tracker
Each week, the Betting Life crew puts their favorite bets and plays they have personally made for the week inside our FREE bet tracker for everyone to follow. I highlighted a few of my (our) favorites just to give you a small taste.
Matthew Freedman likes: Nelson Agholor over 14.5 receiving yards (-110, bet365)
- My Projection: 21.8
- Cutoff: 16.5
This is another one I considered using in our same game Chiefs/Ravens parlay this week. It correlates somewhat with a Jackson under rush yards, and Agholor’s usage has crept up over the back half of the year.
“In Week 12, his line was 13.5, but his usage since the Week 13 bye has significantly increased, and I don’t think his prop line has adjusted enough.
- Weeks 1-12: 52% route rate | 13% target rate | 8% target share
- Since Week 13: 66% route rate | 14% target rate | 13% target share
Since Week 14, Agholor has averaged 3.5 targets with multiple targets in every game but one. With 8.0 yards per target this season, Agholor has a good chance to hit the over if he gets even just two targets.”
If you want more bets, don’t forget to check out Freedman’s divisional round prop article where he mentions this play (and others).
You can tail the Agholor prop at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $1 or more:
Mark Drumheller likes: San Francisco 49ers over 30.5 team total (-105, DraftKings)
- Play to: 30.5 (-110)
I really like this play as well. The closer we get to game time, the more and more I feel like this game will end with a lopsided score and a lot of points on the 49ers' side.
As Mark mentions himself in the tracker, the idea of the Lions' defense crumbling and their offense keeping pressure on SF makes this an attractive bet.
“Lions have 4th worst RZ defense (SF O ranks 1st), and their struggles tackling (22nd) will be magnified by Shanahan's offense which emphasizes YAC. I do expect the Lions offense to have success moving the football as well (especially on the edges with Gibbs), but that will only force the 49ers offense to score with urgency.
Rather than play the full game total, I'd rather eliminate the variance of the Lions' offense on the road, and exploit their defense which allows 5.9 yards per play on the road (29th).”
