The group chat three-way parlay record moved to 6-11 after the conference championship. We swept the board on our conference championship SGP with Lamar Jackson going under his rushing total, the game staying under 44.5, and Justice Hill going for over 15 receiving yards.
After the win (+450 odds), we’re now up +17.18 units, overall, since this recurring article started (assuming one unit bet per parlay).
After going 3-0 on individual plays on that parlay, we are also now at 36-14-1 on the individual props and bets posted in this section for the year (pretty good!):
- Week 6 recap: +543 ✅
- Week 7 recap: +721 ❌
- Week 8 recap: +666 ❌
- Week 9 recap: +549 ✅
- Week 10 recap: +647 ✅
- Week 11 recap: +560 ❌
- Thanksgiving recap: +522 ❌
- Week 12 recap: +413 ✅
- Week 13 recap: +593 ❌
- Week 14 recap: +508 ❌
- Week 15 recap: +216 ✅
- Week 16 recap: +515 ❌
- Week 17 recap: +529 ❌
- Week 18 recap: +595 ❌
- Wild Card week recap: +400 ❌
- Divisional Round recap: +525 ❌
- Conference Championship recap: +450 ✅
As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our group parlay below (you can play them separately, or put them all together and ride together with us!).
If parlays aren’t your thing, we also have the weekly ladder targets as well. Good luck!
Super Bowl Group Chat (Same Game) Parlay
Obviously, with just one game we have to go same game parlay again for this week. Most of these individual plays (or variations of them) are already logged in our FREE bet tracker on Fantasy Life as well.
Each of these legs can be found in the Same-Game Parlay tab of the Chiefs/49ers game on BetMGM.
Matthew Freedman likes: Chiefs moneyline
Officially, Matt is on the Chiefs +3.0 in our bet tracker (and if you followed him there you would be on that too since he posted it right when lines came out). But as an extension, he likes the Chiefs in this game and laid out why in his analysis from earlier in the week.
From the trends (Mahomes is 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog) to the experience advantage at head coach (and kicker!), it’s hard to pick against the Chiefs this week.
Matt LaMarca likes: Isiah Pacheco over 64.5 rushing yards
Projection: 74.7
- Play to: 69.5
As much as I know he likes the 49ers in this game, LaMarca also recognizes this is a good spot for Pacheco (and our projections agree):
“Pacheco has operated as the team's clear lead back, and he has at least 67 rushing yards in five of his past six games. That includes all three postseason contests. The 49ers are more vulnerable against the run than the pass, so it's another great spot for Pacheco.”
Geoff Ulrich likes: Travis Kelce anytime TD
As mentioned in the betting life newsletter from last Thursday, the 49ers lost starting safety Talanoa Hufanga in Week 11, and since that time they have been more susceptible to big games from opposing TEs.
They’ve allowed three TDs to the position over their last seven games and in their last game allowed rookie Sam LaPorta to nearly clear the century mark, as he posted a 9-97 line on 13 targets.
Putting it all together: +360, BetMGM
- Isiah Pacheco over 64.5 rush yards
- Chiefs moneyline
- Travis Kelce anytime TD
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!
Super Bowl 58 Ladder Bets
Ladder bets are where you spread your unit allocation over different milestones.
The idea is to access bigger payouts while maintaining some exposure to the higher probability outcome lines as well.
Your Super Bowl ladder targets are below.
Christian McCaffrey receiving yards - 49ers (BetMGM)
- 50+ receiving yards (+200)
- 50+ receiving yards +TD (+390)
- 75+ receiving yards (+625)
- 100+ receiving yards (+1000)
Christian McCaffrey hasn’t had his biggest receiving games as a member of the 49ers (thus far), but that doesn’t mean he can’t break out in this spot for a big game. The Chiefs' linebackers have had their issues in limiting gains from the backfield most of the year. In the Conference Championship, they allowed Justice Hill to go for 34 yards on four catches, and in Week 14 against the Bills they allowed James Cook to go for 81 yards on just five catches.
Safe to say that McCaffrey has just as much if not more explosiveness than both of those backs and is certainly as good a receiver as them as well. In a way, McCaffrey’s semi-down year as a receiver (for him) works in our favor for this bet. We’re getting +600 odds (14.2% implied probability) to chase him up to 70+ yards, a total he he has gone over only twice this year but one he also went over four times last season. For his career, in 91 regular season starts, he’s had 21 games (23% hit rate) where he’s gone for 70 yards receiving or more.
Dec 17, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) celebrates after running for a touchdown during the third quarter against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Given the Chiefs' ability to bring pressure, and the fact they love to blitz (7th highest-blitz rate in the league), there are a lot of game scripts that could see Brock Purdy dumping the ball off to McCaffrey relentlessly late to get us over some of these bigger totals.
I personally like starting bets at the 50+ milestone and would allocate most of my capital to the 50+ and 60+ milestones. However, I would certainly play this all the way up to 80+ and want some exposure to those bigger odds. As mentioned, McCaffrey has cleared 70+ receiving yards 21 times in the regular season and has the ability to clear all four of these milestones for us this Sunday.
Ladder bet recommended exposure (1 unit bet):
- 0.50 units – 50+ rec yards (+200)
- 0.20 units – 50+ rec yards + TD (+390)
- 0.20 units – 75+ rec yards (+625)
- 0.1 units – 100+ rec yards (+1000)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushing yards – DraftKings
- Over 12.5 rushing yards (+220)
- Over 19.5 rushing yards (+475)
- 25+ rushing yards (+750)
San Francisco has, interestingly enough, given up 15+ rush yards to 2 or more RBs in five of their last six games. As has been noted a lot already this week, the 49ers rush defense has not been good in the playoffs. On top of just fading in areas like EPA per rush and success rate against the run all season, the 49ers allowed 6.3 yards per carry last week to the Lions and also allowed 5.63 yards per attempt to the Green Bay running backs.
Edwards-Helaire isn’t necessarily in for a big role, but the Chiefs have been solid at springing him for some big gains when he’s been in the game. They were able to spring him for a big rush against the Ravens (2 carries, 31 yards), and against the Dolphins with the lead late they ran him more than usual (7 carries, 21 yards). Jerick McKinnon is unlikely to play, as of writing, which would set up Edwards-Helaire for his usual backup role, which has taken him over 20 rushing yards in two of the first three Chiefs playoff games.
Given that we’re getting solid odds to start a ladder at 12.5 (+220), I like playing a majority of the bet there but then laddering up with some smaller allocations to 25+ yards, which is at a healthy +750 on DraftKings—and still well within striking range for CEH against this defense.
Ladder bet recommended exposure (1 unit bet):
- 0.50 units – 12.5 rush yards (+220)
- 0.30 units – 19.5 rush yards (+475)
- 0.20 units – 25+ rush yards (+750)
You can tail the ladder at DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets INSTANTLY when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $5 or more!
Super Bowl 58 Bets from the Bet Tracker
Each week, the Betting Life crew puts their favorite bets and plays they have personally made for the week inside our FREE bet tracker for everyone to follow. I highlighted a few of my (our) favorites just to give you a small taste.
Matthew Freedman likes: Brock Purdy to throw an INT (-130, bet365)
- Projection: -195
- Cutoff: -140
We talked about this prop a lot on the Betting Life prop pod and the Super Bowl 58 live stream.
Simply put, this looks like a poor matchup for Purdy, who has struggled against other defenses that have complex blitz schemes and love to bring pressure.
Dec 17, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) throws a pass during the second half against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Purdy had the famous blowup game (4 INTs) against the Ravens and former DC Mike McDonald’s defense, but he also threw two INTs against the Bengals and Vikings, who both feature veteran defensive coordinators known for their own complex coverages and blitz schemes.
The Chiefs' defense has already produced one INT in each of their first three playoff games, and our on-site projections (which Freedman co-manages) have this prop projected with value even at its current line of -130.
If you want more bets, don’t forget to check out Freedman’s Super Bowl prop article where he mentions this play (and others).
You can tail this at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $1 or more.
Mark Drumheller likes: Chiefs/49ers over 47.5 (-110, DraftKings)
- Play to: 47.5 (-120)
Drumheller has been on an absolute tear in the playoffs. He’s gone 12-0 on all bets posted in our tracker thus far and has a 13th one up for the Super Bowl.
“The 49ers are 5-0 to the over in the last five games that closed under 48. The game features two of the best play-callers of the modern era who have had two weeks to prepare for the opposing defense. All the elements of the game point towards scoring: The early game script, the controlled climate, the coaches, even the way the Super Bowl has historically been officiated.”
