Last week’s parlay came up just short when the Chiefs failed to cover the -2.5 on MNF. The plays went 2-1 and, as a whole, we are now 3-3 – and 14-4 overall on singular props.
What did cash was the Group Chat Ladder bet. Jahmyr Gibbs went over 50 receiving yards AND scored a TD, cashing the +475 SGP portion of the ladder.
You can find a longer recap by following the link at the bottom, but this week, we’re back and have a Thanksgiving parlay AND a Turkey Day ladder bet below.
Jordan Likes: Jake Ferguson under 38.5 receiving yards (-117, BetMGM)
- Play to: -120
- Aggregate projection: 36.9 receiving yards
Despite facing a poor secondary there is no guarantee Dallas will need to throw the ball much. Ferguson has also posted a target share under 15% in two of his last four games and shares targets with Luke Schoonmaker, who has seen his snaps tick up slightly in the last two weeks.
Washington has been strong against opposing TEs allowing the 12th fewest yards against to the position.
Geoff Ulrich Likes: Jordan Love over 33.5 pass attempts (-120, BetMGM)
- Play to: 33.5 (-125)
- Aggregate projection: 34.0 receiving yards
Love has thrown the ball with more regularity of late (40+ passes in three of the last four games). The Packers also enter this game potentially down two of their three RBs (Jones, Wilson –questionable) and face a Detroit team that allows just 3.8 yards per carry against.
Seven of the 10 QBs who have faced Detroit this year have thrown the ball 36 or more times, in-game.
Freedman and Lamarca Like: 49ers -6.5 (-115, BetMGM)
- Play to: 6.5 (-120)
With Deebo Samuel in the lineup, the 49ers are now 6-1 ATS with a point differential around +20.0. Seattle also has injuries to their QB, top RB and one of their top WRs.
It may be hard for them to keep pace with the 49ers offensive juggernaut which is first in offensive DVOA after last week.
Putting it all together: +522, BetMGM
- Jake Ferguson under 38.5 yards, -115
- Jordan Love over 33.5 passing attempts, -125
- 46ers -6.5, -115
You can tail the SGP on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win when you sign up below!
Week 12 Ladder Plays
Ladder bets are where you spread your unit allocation over different milestones.
The idea is to access bigger payouts while maintaining exposure to higher probability outcome lines as well.
The Thanksgiving Day ladder targets are below.
Tony Pollard, RB - Cowboys (BetMGM)
- Over 60.5 rush yards (-115) - play to 62.5 (-110)
- Pollard SGP: 80+ rush yards / anytime TD (+360) - play to +340
The Cowboys are -11.0 favorites in this spot and have an RB in Tony Pollard who they’d love to see explode for a big day.
The Commanders' D-Line has been decimated by trades and allowed 5.92 ypc to Saquon Barkley last week – and two weeks ago allowed 6.93 ypc to the Patriots RB duo (Elliot and Stevenson) who have had miserable years for the most part.
We have Pollard projected for a strong week in our aggregate projections (70.0 rushing yards) and using the same game parlay function on MGM allows us to tap into more of his upside, in case he shows off with one of his signature explosive TD runs.
Christian McCaffrey - 49ers (DraftKings)
- 50+ rec yards (+200) - play to +190
- 60+ rec yards (+330) - play to +300
- 70+ rec yards (+550) - play to +500
- 80+ rec yards (+850) - play to +800
I like playing this one through a lot of milestones. McCaffrey hasn’t broken free for a monster day as a receiver in a while but his usage has been ticking up. His route rate since Week 7 hasn’t dipped below 84% and he’s seen a 20% target share – or better – in each of his last three games.
This is a massive game for the 49ers and I don’t expect McCaffrey is bound to be off the field much given the versatility he gives the 49ers in the passing game. While he’s only cleared 50 yards receiving once this season that game came just two weeks ago, and it’s worth mentioning that he cleared 60+ yards receiving in three of his final 10 regular season games of 2022.
October 8, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) during the first quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
The Seahawks also make for a great opponent. They have a solid pass rush but poor coverage out of the backfield. They allowed a 41-yard reception to RB Pierre Strong Jr. in Week 8 and ceded an incredible 119 yards receiving to RB Brian Robinson Jr. in Week 10.
Allocating most of your ladder units through 50 and 60 will give you a nice profit even if he stalls out at 60+ but the upside of 70+ and 80+ are worth sprinkling on given how good a receiver McCaffrey is, how solid his usage has been of late, and how solid of a matchup this is for him to potentially reach his ceiling as a receiver.
You can tail McCaffrey on DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $5 or more!
Bets from the Bet Tracker
Each week the Betting Life crew puts their favorite bets and plays they have personally made for the week inside our FREE bet tracker for everyone to follow. I highlighted a few of my (our) favorites just to give you a small taste.
Mark Drumheller Likes: Giants vs Patriots over 33.5 (-110, Bet365)
This game is interesting from a car crash perspective. Obviously these teams are going nowhere in 2023 but admittedly, the total does seem like a bit of an overreaction. The Giants just finished putting up 31 points on Washington and have allowed an average of 32.66 points against the last three weeks. The Patriots are fresh off a bye and SHOULD be somewhat more competent on offense.
As Mark states himself in the FREE bet tracker:
“Both teams are in the bottom six in coverage grade (NE 29th / NYG 27th), and aren't much better in EPA per dropback (NE 28th / NYG 24th). DeVito looked much more prepared vs. Washington and proved they can score against a below-average defense, while New England had an extra week to make adjustments on offense.”
For what it’s worth, we also have clear skies, decent temperatures and low wind forecast for Sunday in New York.
Matt LaMarca Likes: Cardinals +1.0 (-112, DraftKings)
- Play to: Cardinals +100 moneyline
This is a divisional game which should be close. As Matt points out in the tracker, the Cardinals are now 2-0 ATS with Murray under center and the Rams will again be without Cooper Kupp.
Both teams are well coached and taking the points in a tossup kind of contest like this does seem like the right call.
If the line moves, it’s likely to move towards Arizona just given the overall health issues plaguing the Rams – again – so grabbing the Cardinals while they are still underdogs likely offers some potential for CLV (closing line value) as well.
