Another winner! If you’re tailing our group parlays from this segment, we’re now 2-2 after hitting again last week (+8.92 units overall, if betting one unit). The New Orleans Saints SGP came through as did my D’Andre Swift over on rush attempts.
Overall, the plays are 9-3.
- Week 6 recap: +543 ✅
- Week 7 recap: +721 ❌
- Week 8 recap: +666 ❌
- Week 9 recap: +549 ✅
As mentioned above, if you were tailing us with a single unit allocation, per week, then you would be up 8.92 units to date. This week, we’re back for more and have another parlay AND multiple ladder bets for Week 10.
Group Chat Parlay
Freedman & LaMarca Like: Cardinals ML (+105, BetMGM)
- Play to: +100
This is a play we are aligned on (in some way or another) in the free Fantasy Life bet tracker.
Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner (6) stiff arms Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Sam Hubbard (94) at State Farm Stadium in Glendale on Oct. 8, 2023. Credit: Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK
The Cardinals are getting Kyler Murray AND James Conner back, but they are also facing a failing Atlanta defense that isn’t great at getting to the QB (10th fewest sacks).
Trends also favor a bounceback. Per The Action Network, teams who lost by 20 points or more the previous week, facing teams who didn’t, are 84-55-1 ATS (60.4%). If Arizona covers they’re likely going to win, so going moneyline makes sense.
Jordan Likes: Deshaun Watson over 188.5 passing yards (-115, BetMGM)
- Play to: 189.5 (-110)
- Aggregate projection: 208.9 passing yards
Deshaun Watson over 28.5 pass attempts was one of the first bets I made this week, so an over on his yards is something I endorse.
Watson was solid last week (7.3 yards per attempt), and the Browns should be looking to attack through the air after the Ravens stifled them on the ground in Week 4. Our projections love this one, giving a near 20 yard edge to the over.
Geoff Ulrich Likes: Alvin Kamara under 13.5 carries (-105, BetMGM)
- Play to: 13.5 (-115)
- Aggregate projection: 13.2 rush attempts
Alvin Kamara is now dealing with competition for carries from three different sources (Williams, Hill, Miller) and has seen his carry percentage drop in four straight games.
Despite that, he’s still got a line in the low- to mid-teens for carries. The Vikings are a tougher run defense (5th best yards per carry against) and make Kamara a better receiving target in Week 10.
Putting it all together: +647, BetMGM SGP
- Cardinals ML +105
- Deshaun Watson over 188.5 passing yards -115
- Alvin Kamara under 13.5 rush attempts -105
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!
Week 10 Ladder Plays
Ladder bets are where you spread your unit allocation over different milestones.
The idea is to access bigger payouts while maintaining some exposure to the higher probability outcome lines as well.
The Week 10 ladder targets are below.
Amari Cooper, WR - Browns (BetMGM)
- 75+ rec yards (+166) - play to +150
- 100+ rec yards (+410) - play to +400
I like taking our last prop and building on it for our ladder play this week. Despite having gone for 80+ yards in five of eight starts this year, we are still able to get Amari Cooper at 75+ yards at odds above +150 on BetMGM.
Further, while we have to be mindful of the matchup, the Ravens' ability to start quick (they’ve scored first in eight of nine games) means it’s only more likely the Browns take to the air quickly in this matchup. Baltimore has allowed two 100+ yard games to opposing WRs already and ceded 75+ yards in a game five times.
Cooper has been under the radar fantastic this year, averaging 17.6 yards per catch and has a massive 43% air yards on the season. With Baltimore suppressing his odds, it’s a good time to “ladder up” on the Browns' WR1 and hope we get a close game with Cooper potentially leading the Browns' comeback.
Rashid Shaheed, WR - Saints (DraftKings)
- 60+ rec yards (+370) - play to +300
- 70+ rec yards (+600) - play to +550
- 80+ rec yards (+900) - play to +800
Considering the matchup, history, and some of the circumstances surrounding the Saints' offense this week (Michael Thomas brickgate) looking to Shaheed to pop off against Minnesota makes a lot of sense. And oh, by the way, we have fantastic odds with which to bet that this happens.
Oct 29, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed (22) catches a long pass in front of Indianapolis Colts cornerback Tony Brown (38) during the second half at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports
Shaheed enters this game against the Vikings having gone for 60+ yards in four of nine games already this year. Last year, he went for 60+ yards in three of his final five starts. So over his last 14 games he’s gone for 60+ yards seven times (a 50% hit rate).
Despite that fact, we are still getting +300 on DraftKings to take him to go for 60 or more yards. Those odds give us a 25% implied probability, for those keeping track. Again, fantastic odds.
Throw in a Vikings defense that funnels teams to the pass, blitzes a ton, and allows WRs to get in one-on-one situations a lot (5th most receiving yards allowed to opposing WRs) and you should feel good about betting Shaheed through 80+ yards this week.
You can tail the Shaheed ladder at DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of $5 or more!
Bets from the Bet Tracker
Each week the Betting Life crew puts their favorite bets and plays they have personally made for the week inside our FREE bet tracker for everyone to follow. I highlighted a few of my (our) favorites just to give you a small taste.
Matthew Freedman Likes: Kenny Pickett under 19.5 pass completions (-110, BetMGM)
- Projection: 19.4
- Cutoff: 19.5 (-120)
This one was one of my personal favorites from our Week 10 prop pod that Freedman highlighted. The Packers aren’t great against the run and the Steelers are favorites at home.
Pickett's rarely been a high volume or efficient passer this year either:
“Throughout the season, Pickett’s completion prop has hovered in the 18.5-to-20.5 range, so the current number in the market is representative -- and Pickett is 7-1 to the under. Only once this year has Pickett gone over 19.5 completions, and that was Week 1, when he had 31 in a 30-7 loss that saw him attempt a season-high 46 passes.”
Geoff Ulrich Likes: Tommy DeVito over 11.5 rushing yards (-140, bet365)
- Projection: 17.6
- Cutoff: 13.5 (-110)
I couldn’t go the entire week without writing up this prop somewhere. Tommy DeVito was a 4.66 runner out of college (apparently) and he ran four times in each of the last two games—games he didn’t start.
In preseason, his final start saw him run 6 times for 33 yards. I see this as a first-read-and-gone situation (aka running) for DeVito against a tough Dallas line that he’ll want to avoid meeting at all costs.
This line has moved to 12.5 at some sportsbooks, and if you’d rather take the -120 on over 12.5, I think that’s fine as well. We have him projected for over 16 rush yards, and it’s likely he’s either a complete disaster (and this fails) or he sails well over this low mark—making a yard or two likely to be inconsequential either way.
You can tail the over on DeVito on bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place a $1 initial bet!
