We are back with another winner to report from Week 12. The 3-way group chat parlay record moved back to .500 on the year (4-4) after last week’s +413 bet hit. We are now +17.52 units overall since this started (assuming one unit bet per parlay).
After going 3-0 last week, the individual plays for the parlay improved their record as well. We are now 19-5 on all singular bets for the group parlay section since inception.
- Week 6 recap: +543 ✅
- Week 7 recap: +721 ❌
- Week 8 recap: +666 ❌
- Week 9 recap: +549 ✅
- Week 10 recap: +647 ✅
- Week 11 recap: +560 ❌
- Thanksgiving recap: +522 ❌
- Week 12 recap: +413 ✅
As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our parlay below (you can play them separately, or put them all together and ride the three-way parlay). If parlays aren’t your thing, we also have the weekly ladder targets as well. Good luck!
Group Chat Parlay
Freedman likes: Kalif Raymond over 16.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to 18.5 (-110)
- Projection: 20.2 yards
This one doesn’t require too much explanation. Raymond has gone over this mark in 9 of 11 games this year. Yes, an 82% hit rate.
If you’ve just bet the over on Raymond’s receiving props this year, congrats, you’re likely the best gambler in the world.
Nov 12, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Kalif Raymond (11) makes a catch against the Los Angeles Chargers during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Given the low O/U Raymond has, the fact the Saints will be without No. 1 CB Marshon Lattimore (ankle, IR) (and maybe also FS Marcus Maye (shoulder), and the fact we’re in a dome, starting the parlay with a Raymond over on this low total makes plenty of sense for Week 13.
Mark Drumheller likes: Colts/Titans over 42.5 (-115, BetMGM)
- Play to 42.5 (-120)
An over? In this economy? Seriously, though, the Colts have been one of the rare over teams this year. They are 7-4 to the over in 11 games played and are also 10th in plays per game.
This week, they face an eroding Tennessee defense (from Mark himself in our FREE bet tracker):
“Titans defense ranks 28th in EPA per play allowed and 31st in dropback EPA in front of only Washington. It masked to a degree by their 4th ranked red zone defense, but Indianapolis has been solid (9th overall) at TD's per RZ trip. The first matchup (23-16 Colts win) yielded 39 total points, but had 777 total yards between the two teams.”
Geoff Ulrich likes: Steelers -6.5 (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to 6.5 (-120)
I bet this at -5.5 in our free bet tracker early this week, but realistically, I like the Steelers at anything under the key number of 7.0. The Cardinals' injury report is not great. Starting WR Michael Wilson is out, and their other starter Marquise Brown (heel) is questionable. Two of their cornerbacks are out as well. TE Trey McBride missed some practice time with a groin injury.
The Steelers' offense looked rejuvenated last week, and Kenny Pickett posted the second-highest QBR of the season against the Bengals. Given how bad the Cardinals run stoppers are (fifth last in success rate against the run), they may not need Pickett to do much in this game.
Putting it all together: +593, BetMGM SGP
- Kalif Raymond over 16.5 receiving yards -111
- Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans over 42.5 -110
- Steelers -6.5 -110
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!
Week 13 Ladder Plays
Ladder bets are where you spread your unit allocation over different milestones.
The idea is to access bigger payouts while maintaining some exposure to the higher probability outcome lines as well.
The Week 13 ladder targets are below.
Kyren Williams, RB - Rams (BetMGM)
- 75+ rush yards (+130) - play to +125
- 100+ rec yards (+360) - play to +350
- 125+ rush yards (+750) - play to +700
I love the idea of chasing a bigger day for the fresh and rejuvenated Williams, who will be at home against a weaker Browns rush defense.
The Browns are banged up on defense (Myles Garrett looks set to play but at less than 100%, and LB Anthony Walker is questionable) and have been regressing as a run-stopping unit most of the year, allowing a lot more explosive plays of late (including a 74-yard run by Jaylen Warren two weeks ago).
Williams certainly looked explosive himself last week as well, as he had a 56-yard run last week and also clocked a 31-yard run in Week 6 prior to his injury. Let’s not forget either that this Sean McVay run scheme is great at creating big days for his RBs. Last year, Cam Akers finished the season with three straight 100+ yard games, and Williams himself has topped 100 rush yards in three of his last four starts.
Despite all this, we are still getting fantastic odds to chase Williams through 100 and even 125 yards this week, making him a great ladder target for Week 13.
Jaylen Warren, RB - Steelers (DraftKings)
- 80+ rush yards (+210) - play to +200
- 90+ rush yards (+330) - play to +310
- 100+ rush yards (+500) - play to +475
The Steelers are playing the Cardinals this week in a game where the spread has moved toward the Steelers all week (it’s currently Steelers -6.5 at many books). Part of the reason is some of the injuries the Cardinals are dealing with on offense, but the other reason is that the Cardinals are simply a bad team, and the thing they are the worst at is stopping the run.
Arizona is 5th last in success rate against the run and third last in rush EPA. Last week they allowed the Rams' RB duo to combine for 7.6 yards per attempt and rush for 220 yards. Yikes.
The Steelers ran the ball well in their first week sans Matt Canada, and while Warren didn’t have as much success as his back mate Najee Harris, he should have lots of opportunities to break some big plays this week against Arizona. Warren has broken runs of 20, 22, and 74 yards over his last four starts and has gone for 80+ yards rushing in three of his last four games, despite never topping 15 carries in a game over that span.
From a betting perspective, playing for a big game makes a lot of sense in this spot. Warren seems destined for a big workload, and if that occurs, a couple of big plays should help him reach the upper echelons of his yardage ceiling.
You can tail Warren at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up for your new account below!
Week 13 Bets from the Bet Tracker
Each week, the Betting Life crew puts their favorite bets and plays they have personally made for the week inside our FREE bet tracker for everyone to follow. I highlighted a few of my (our) favorites just to give you a small taste.
Matthew Freedman Likes: Christian McCaffrey anytime TD (-190, BetMGM)
- Projection: -247.6
- Cutoff: -225
I am admittedly a little shocked we can still get Christian McCaffrey TD props at anything above -300 in price. This is a player, after all, who has scored 11 times in 11 games and scored in all but one game to date in 2023.
Nov 19, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) carries the ball against Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (31) during the second quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Maybe the sportsbooks like pain, or maybe they just don’t care about dealing out a little goodwill on a TD prop this short. Either way, as Matt explains himself this week in his Week 13 prop article, there is no reason to stop betting this.
“He has a league-high 49 redzone carries as well as 12 redzone targets.
At -210, McCaffrey has a 67.7% implied probability of scoring a TD this week (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator), and I have his true odds of scoring projected at 71.2%.
The TD market tends to be overjuiced -- but McCaffrey is one of the few TD bets that consistently offers value.”
Geoff Ulrich Likes: Patrick Mahomes over 4.5 rushing attempts (+135, bet365)
- Projection: 4.7
- Cutoff: 4.5 (+110)
This is another line that looks to offer good intrinsic value just based off of what Mahomes has done already this year. In 11 games, he’s rushed 5 or more times in 7 of those contests (63.6% hit rate). Further, he’s hit 6 or more rushes in 6 of those contests, so it's not like playing for 5 rushes is necessarily playing to his ceiling either.
It’s worth noting as well that Green Bay is a pretty solid coverage unit that is likely to get back CB Jaire Alexander (questionable) this week. Their coverage/pass rush forced statuesque Jared Goff to scramble three times last week, and Justin Herbert took off a season-high eight times against them in Week 11.
In a colder game, seeing Mahomes use his legs a little more than usual wouldn’t be overly shocking, and the price is right (42.55% implied probability) to take an over, given that our projections (which have this set at 4.7) are leaning toward the over side as well.
You can tail the Mahomes over at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below and place your first bet of just $1!
