The three-way group chat parlay record moved back to 4-6 on the year after we got tripped up by some rain and a C.J. Stroud injury last week in New York. The loss means we’re “only” up +15.52 units overall since this started (assuming one unit bet per parlay).
After going 2-1 on individual plays last week, we are also now at 22-8 on the individual props and bets posted in this section for the year (again, pretty good!).
- Week 6 recap: +543 ✅
- Week 7 recap: +721 ❌
- Week 8 recap: +666 ❌
- Week 9 recap: +549 ✅
- Week 10 recap: +647 ✅
- Week 11 recap: +560 ❌
- Thanksgiving recap: +522 ❌
- Week 12 recap: +413 ✅
- Week 13 recap: +593 ❌
- Week 14 recap: +508 ❌
As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our parlay below (you can play them separately, or put them all together and ride the three-way parlay).
If parlays aren’t your thing, we also have the weekly ladder targets as well. Good luck!
Group Chat Parlay
Mark Drumheller and Freedman like: Ravens -3.0 (-120, BetMGM)
- Play to: -3.0 (-125)
We had multiple people jump on the Ravens' spread early this week, and it does feel like they are being a bit undervalued here. Jacksonville has struggled of late defensively—allowing 30+ points in back-to-back games—and now faces Lamar Jackson who is heating up down the stretch, posting 7.4 yards per attempt and 3 TDs against a Rams secondary that is better than the one he’ll face this week.
Baltimore has also been a solid road team to back of late, going 10-5 ATS on the road since the start of last year.
LaMarca likes: Bears +3.0 (-115, BetMGM)
- Play to: +3.0 (-105)
The Bears have been one of the best defenses in the league since Week 9 (when they acquired Montez Sweat), ranking 6th in EPA per play over that span. As LaMarca noted in our free bet tracker too, they have been better on offense since Justin Fields returned, ranking 13th in EPA/play on that side of the ball (since Fields returned in Week 11).
The Browns also just put two important O-linemen on IR this week, significantly weakening their pass protection. The Bears got us a cover last week, and I think they likely do the job again.
Geoff likes: Tyler Allgeier over 7.5 carries (-138, BetMGM)
- Projection: 9.5
- Play to: 7.5 (-150) / 8.5 (-110)
A volume prop paid off for me here last week and I think it will again in this spot. The Falcons play the Panthers, who are objectively the worst rush defense in the league (32nd in EPA per rush and 32nd in success rate against the run).
Teams playing the Panthers have averaged 29.2 rush attempts per game (fifth-most in the league), and Allgeier himself has taken eight or more carries in every single game since Week 5. The odds are short, but even if this moves down to the -150 range, there is value in the over.
Putting it all together: +488, BetMGM SGP
- Bears +3.0 (-115)
- Tyler Allgeier over 7.5 carries (-138)
- Ravens -3.0 (-120)
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!
Week 15 Ladder Plays
Ladder bets are where you spread your unit allocation over different milestones.
The idea is to access bigger payouts while maintaining some exposure to the higher probability outcome lines as well.
The Week 14 ladder targets are below.
Jayden Reed - Packers (BetMGM)
- 75+ rec yards (+230) - play to +220
- Over 74.5 rec yards + anytime TD (+400 - SGP)
- 100+ rec yards (+550) - play to +500
The Packers are a double-edged sword this week for betting. They have a lot of injury issues on offense (Christian Watson doubtful, Dontayvion Wicks questionable, AJ Dillon questionable) and are likely to be short-handed at the position. Jayden Reed was also a limited practice participant this week, but that may have been more of the Packers managing his reps as he wasn’t on the final injury report.
Green Bay Packers receiver Jayden Reed runs against Detroit Lions safety Tracy Walker III (21) and defensive lineman Levi Onwuzurike (91) during the first half at Ford Field in Detroit on Thursday, Nov. 23, 2023. Credit: Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK
Reed should be a full go and is in a great spot for a big workload—and a big day in general. The Buccaneers' defense is a classic funnel to the pass unit that is 29th in yards per pass attempt against and has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points against to opposing WRs. They’ve been bothered by injuries in the secondary all season and are likely to be without starting corner Carlton Davis (foot - doubtful). The dynamic Reed (4.45 40m) has gone for 80+ yards twice in seven games since Week 8 and caught a team-high 8 passes last week against the Giants.
We can play Reed through 75+ and 100+ yards on BetMGM, but if you want a third play to include in a Reed ladder bet this week, creating a same-game parlay on BetMGM with over 74.5 yards and an anytime TD gives you solid +400 odds to chase and another way to capitalize on a big game from Reed, that doesn’t require him hitting the 100+ yard mark.
Tyjae Spears, RB - Titans (DraftKings)
- 25+ rec yards (+170) - play to +160
- 40+ rec yards (+450) - play to +400
- 50+ rec yards (+800) - play to +700
Spears is another dynamic rookie whose alternate lines look well worth playing this week. The RB has played on over 60% of the snaps for the Titans in each of their last two games and has an incredible 14 targets over those two games as well.
Some of the Spears usage is game flow induced (the Titans were down big against both Indianapolis and Miami at points), but the other part of the equation is that Spears is also proving himself to be an explosive back who is getting impossible to keep off the field. He’s averaged 5.7 yards per touch this season and over his last two games has averaged 10.2 yards per catch. Just like Reed, Spears has a great matchup too.
Houston has a solid rush defense that is sixth in EPA per play vs the run, but they are not sound in coverage and have ceded the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing RBs this year as well. Eleven different RBs vs Houston have gone for 25+ receiving yards against them, and four different RBs have broken the 40-yard barrier.
The Titans are favored, so perhaps we see a little more Derrick Henry toward the end of this game, but there should still be ample opportunity for Spears, who has been gaining more playing time as the season has progressed, and who was an integral part of the Titans' come-from-behind win last week.
You can tail Spears at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up for your new account below!
Week 15 Bets from the Bet Tracker
Each week, the Betting Life crew puts their favorite bets and plays they have personally made for the week inside our FREE bet tracker for everyone to follow. I highlighted a few of my (our) favorites just to give you a small taste.
Matthew Freedman Likes: Jalen Hurts OVER 0.5 INTS (+140, bet365)
- Projection: +110.3
- Cutoff: +130
Hurts and the Eagles' offense have struggled to get on track of late, and Hurts himself has regressed from a turnover perspective this season, throwing 10 INTs through 13 games. The Seahawks have talent in the secondary, and while they’re not leaders in this category, they have grabbed three INTs over their last four games—and picked off one of the leaders for the MVP award (Brock Purdy) twice in three weeks.
Dec 10, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) runs the ball against the Dallas Cowboys in the second quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Here are a few more stats from Freedman’s Week 15 prop article where he mentions this play (and others):
“The Seahawks have one of the league’s best historical home-field advantages, and Hurts has had notable home/road splits for his career …
- Home (29 games): 10 INTs | 1.5% INT rate
- Road (29 games): 19 INTs | 2.3% INT rate
… and especially for this season.
- Home (six games): 3 INTs | 1.6% INT rate
- Road (seven games): 7 INTs | 2.9% INT rate"
Geoff Ulrich Likes: Rams -6.5 (-110, bet365)
- Cutoff: 6.5 (-120)
I took the Rams early in the week in our free bet tracker at -6.0 but would honestly consider them even if this line gets to 7.0.
The Commanders are coming off a bye, but at this point, I’m just not sure what a bye week will really do for a team as lacking in talent and cohesion as the Commanders. Washington is 32nd (dead last) in EPA per play on defense and 32nd in EPA per dropback against. This week they’ll face a fully healthy Rams offense that is now 9th in EPA per play on offense and 6th in EPA per rush. Given the Rams are also at home, it could be argued that this kind of mismatch is deserving of more than a TD on the spread.
The Rams have also been profitable in this spot in 2023 for bettors going 4-2 ATS as favorites in 2023.
All-in-all, these are two teams headed in opposite directions. If the Rams play to their full potential, they should have a great shot at winning by margin (TD or more) and paying off for us again in Week 15.
You can tail the Rams over at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below and place your first bet of just $1!
