The group chat three-way parlay record moved to 5-6 on the year after we managed to hit a +216 payout on our card from Week 15. The Bears pushed at +3.0 (reducing our ticket to a 2-way play) but the Ravens covered and Tyler Allgeier smashed his carry prop to the over. The win means we’re up +17.68 units overall since this started (assuming one unit bet per parlay).
After going 2-0-1 on individual plays last week, we are also now at 24-8-1 on the individual props and bets posted in this section for the year (pretty good!).
- Week 6 recap: +543 ✅
- Week 7 recap: +721 ❌
- Week 8 recap: +666 ❌
- Week 9 recap: +549 ✅
- Week 10 recap: +647 ✅
- Week 11 recap: +560 ❌
- Thanksgiving recap: +522 ❌
- Week 12 recap: +413 ✅
- Week 13 recap: +593 ❌
- Week 14 recap: +508 ❌
- Week 15 recap: +216 ✅
As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our parlay below (you can play them separately, or put them all together and ride the three-way parlay).
If parlays aren’t your thing, we also have the weekly ladder targets as well. Good luck!
Group Chat Parlay
Matt Freedman likes: Gus Edwards over 39.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM)
- Projection: 51.9
- Play to: 42.5 (-110)
This bet was put up in our FREE bet tracker early in the week and the over is projecting with a big edge. The Ravens lost Keaton Mitchell for the season last week and Edwards—who went over this total in eight straight games when Mitchell was out or still being integrated into the offense—took 16 carries in the Ravens' last game (with Mitchell not able to complete).
The 49ers rank just 29th in defensive rush EPA as well and allowed 8.85 yards per carry to the Cardinals' RBs last week.
Jordan Fiegleman likes: Tyler Allgeier over 33.5 rush yards (-115, BetMGM)
- Projection: 39.7
- Play to: 34.5 (-105)
Hey, if it works, don’t fix it. Allgeier popped up for Jordan in our projections again this week, and it’s easy to see why. Betting his yardage over still shows a 6-7-yard edge, which is pretty similar to the edge we had last week on him.
Nov 26, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier (25) runs the ball against the New Orleans Saints in the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Given Allgeier has taken no less than 8.0 carries in each of his last 10 games, we only need him to be slightly efficient to break the over on this total.
Geoff Ulrich likes: Josh Reynolds over 1.5 receptions (-133, BetMGM)
- Projection: 1.9
- Play to: 1.5 (-140) or over 20.5 receiving yards (-125)
The Lions play the Vikings this week, who are a funnel to the pass defense. They’ve allowed the fourth fewest rushing yards to opposing RBs but have ceded the fourth-most receptions to opposing WRs.
Reynolds himself has played well of late and has averaged 3.5 targets over his last four games. For the season, he’s also gone for 2.0 or more receptions in 10 of his 14 starts.
Putting it all together: +515, BetMGM SGP
- Gus Edwards over 39.5 rush yards (-110)
- Josh Reynolds over 1.5 receptions (-133)
- Tyler Allgeier over 33.5 rush yards (-117)
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!
Week 16 Ladder Plays
Ladder bets are where you spread your unit allocation over different milestones.
The idea is to access bigger payouts while maintaining some exposure to the higher probability outcome lines as well.
The Week 16 ladder targets are below.
Brandon Aiyuk - 49ers (DraftKings)
- 80+ rec yards (+135) - play to +125
- 100+ rec yards (+370) - play tp +350
- 125+ rec yards (+800) - play to +750
Timing the Aiyuk breakout games this year has been a roller coaster. The third-year WR has broken the 100-yard barrier five separate times in 2023 (and gone over 125 yards four times). Unfortunately (for over-bettors and fantasy owners), he’s also gone under 50 yards in a game three times and under 60 yards seven times.
The good news? He’s coming into Week 16 off one of his worst outputs of the season—which has produced another good buy-low spot in the props department.
Aiyuk’s regular prop line of 61.5 receiving yards is about 6-7 yards lower than it was last week. However, if we’re playing for him to bounce back, then why not just play for another big game? Because when Aiyuk has gone over his regular prop he hasn’t just gone over it by a little, he’s almost always sailed over it by margin.
In the six games that he’s cleared 60 yards receiving in 2023, Aiyuk has now averaged an astounding 124.0 yards per game.
The +370 odds available at the 100+ yard mark this week also look like they offer solid value as they suggest a 21.28% implied probability of him hitting this milestone against Baltimore. However, it’s a yardage total that he’s exceeded in 33.33% of his starts this year.
With the Ravens having better rush defenders than the Cardinals, I expect Brock Purdy to need to lean on Aiyuk far more in this spot, and it’s worth noting that Baltimore's secondary has had issues limiting big plays downfield of late—ceding over 100 yards to Keenan Allen and Cooper Kupp respectively in Weeks 12 and 14. It’s as good a spot as any to target Aiyuk and chase some big payouts on Christmas Day.
You can tail the Aiyuk ladder at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up for a new account below and place a first bet of at least $5!
Trey McBride - Cardinals (BetMGM)
- 75+ rec yards (+155) - play to +150
- 80+ rec yards + anytime TD (+400 - SGP)
- 100+ rec yards (+425) - play to +400
McBride has been killing it of late from a production standpoint, and I don’t see any reason why his good run will come to a stop this week. Chicago are certainly no slouches on defense, but as a unit, they have had trouble defending against dynamic TEs like McBride. Last week they allowed David Njoku to go for a career-high 10 catches—along with 101 yards and a TD—and they have now allowed five TDs to the TE position over their last seven games.
I don't trust Bears head coach Matt Eberflus to make the proper adjustments for this game either (if he didn’t adjust for Njoku, he probably won’t for McBride either). And with the Cardinals' receiving core banged up, McBride seems destined to see somewhere in the 9-12 target range once again (he’s averaged 9 targets over his last five games).
Overall, McBride has gone for 80+ receiving yards in four of his last seven games (57% hit rate), and yet his 75+ yard milestone on BetMGM is still being offered at +155 odds (39.22% implied probability). For betting purposes, laddering up to 100+ yards makes sense, but given how poorly the Bears have defended against TEs, I like including a same-game parlay that includes an anytime TD as well.
Week 15 Bets from the Bet Tracker
Each week, the Betting Life crew puts their favorite bets and plays they have personally made for the week inside our FREE bet tracker for everyone to follow. I highlighted a few of my (our) favorites just to give you a small taste.
Matthew Freedman Likes: Jalen Hurts OVER 0.5 INTS (+140, bet365)
- My Projection: +120.4
- Cutoff: +140
You’re not seeing double and I didn’t forget to take this bet out from last week’s template. Freedman is just going with the same bet that hit for him (us) in Week 15.
Hurts turned the ball over twice last week, throwing two more picks against the Seahawks. Maybe it’s the playcalling or maybe Hurts just isn’t playing as well, but whatever the case, his INT rate is far greater than it was at this time last year.
Dec 18, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) rushes against Seattle Seahawks defensive tackle Jarran Reed (90) during the fourth quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
“In 14 games this year, Hurts has 12 INTs on a 2.6% INT rate, which is the highest mark he has had throughout his nearly three seasons as a starter.
The Giants have an aggressive defense with 13 INTs, all of which have come since Week 5.”
Given the odds here are at least as good, and potentially better in spots than they were against Seattle, I agree that playing for another Hurts INT isn’t something you should shy away from in Week 16.
If you want more bets, don’t forget to check out Freedman’s Week 16 prop article where he mentions this play (and others).
Matt LaMarca Likes: Commanders +3.0 (-110, bet365)
- Cutoff: +3.0 (-120)
As much as I’d like to root for the Jets this week, it does feel like the sharp move is to fade—which is exactly what LaMarca is doing. Their offensive line got Zach Wilson knocked out last week, and while they will face one of the worst defenses, and worst defensive lines, in the Commanders, it will now be Trevor Siemian under centre.
As LaMarca notes himself, this is not great news for anyone planning on backing New York:
“Zach Wilson officially ruled out, so Trevor Siemian gets the nod. What we've seen from Siemian this season has been disastrous -- 2.2 AY/A, 5.1 INT% -- so I'm happy to fade him in this spot.”
You can tail the Jets over at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below and place your first bet of just $1!
