The group chat three-way parlay record moved to 5-7 on the year after we missed out on a couple of close calls on yardage props in Week 16. Tyler Allgeier smashed his over (again), but Josh Reynolds came up one shy of his reception prop, and Gus Edwards didn’t get enough work to go over against the 49ers. Even with the loss, we’re up +16.68 units overall since this started (assuming one unit bet per parlay). 

After going 1-2 on individual plays last week, we are now at 25-10-1 on the individual props and bets posted in this section for the year (pretty good!). 

  • Week 6 recap: +543 ✅
  • Week 7 recap: +721 ❌
  • Week 8 recap: +666 ❌
  • Week 9 recap: +549 ✅
  • Week 10 recap: +647 ✅
  • Week 11 recap: +560 ❌
  • Thanksgiving recap: +522 ❌
  • Week 12 recap: +413 ✅
  • Week 13 recap: +593 ❌
  • Week 14 recap: +508 ❌
  • Week 15 recap: +216 ✅
  • Week 16 recap: +515 ❌

As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our parlay below (you can play them separately, or put them all together and ride the three-way parlay). 

If parlays aren’t your thing, we also have the weekly ladder targets as well. Good luck!

Group Chat Parlay

Freedman likes: Lucas Havrisik over 1.5 FGS (-120, BetMGM) 

I won’t say much about this because it’s a kicker prop, but this does look like a prime setup that Freedman has already discussed in length. 

Like him, I also do not know how to pronounce Havrisik, making this the perfect degenerate bet to start our three-way parlay with.

LaMarca likes: Packers +1.0 (-110, BetMGM)

  • Play to: Packers ML (-110)

Under Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 17-2 SU in December and Jordan Love has played out of his mind the last five games (68.8% - 1359 yds - 11td - 1int). 

To make this bet even more enticing, the Vikings are starting a rookie in Jaren Hall who struggled in preseason (5.5 yards per attempt, 54% comp rate). 

Geoff likes: Joe Mixon over 10.5 carries (-125, BetMGM) 

This prop is projected to have one of the largest edges in the Fantasy Life projections this week. Mixon still managed to go over this total last week despite having the worst game script imaginable. 

I can’t imagine the Bengals won’t be trying to run more this week either given the Chiefs’ weaker rush defense (22nd in success rate vs. the run). 

Putting it all together: +529, BetMGM SGP

Parlay

You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!

Week 17 Ladder Plays 

Ladder bets are where you spread your unit allocation over different milestones. 

The idea is to access bigger payouts while maintaining some exposure to the higher probability outcome lines as well. 

The Week 16 ladder targets are below.

Darius Slayton receiving yards - Giants  (BetMGM) 

  • 50+ rec yards (+195) 
  • 50+ rec yards + anytime TD (+800) 
  • 75+ rec yards (+525) 

I like targeting the Rams' secondary this week, a unit that has now allowed the eighth-most receiving yards on the season to opposing WRs—and a total of seven TDs to opposing WRs over the last three games. 

It may not seem like a huge deal that TyRod Taylor is starting, but it is a nice upgrade for Slayton, who has posted games of 69 (Week 6) and 90 (Week 16) receiving yards with Taylor under center. Slayton remains the Giants' most consistent big-play option at WR and has caught passes of 69 yards and 33 yards the last two weeks. The Giants' WR rotation—which used to include about six players at one point—has dried up a bit too. 

Parris Campbell is done and Jalin Hyatt saw zero targets last week. Meanwhile, Slayton is a near-every-down player who has posted a route rate above 90% in each of the last three games. For betting, starting at 50+ yards seems reasonable. It’s a number he’s cleared six times this season, so the +195 odds (33.9% implied probability) are quite attractive. 

For our other milestones, I like playing Slayton through 75+ yards (he’s gone over this twice in his last five games) and playing him in a same-game parlay with 50+ yards and an anytime TD (+800). The Giants have not thrown for many TDs this season, but the Rams should give Slayton some opportunities to draw targets from his QB—who threw for a TD last week—when they are inside the opposing team's red zone. 

Chris Olave receiving yards - Saints (DraftKings)

  • 100+ yards (+260)
  • 100+ yards + anytime TD (+600)
  • 120+ yards (+500)

Olave looks to be in a fantastic spot against Tampa Bay, who has allowed the most receiving yards and fourth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs this year. New Orleans has also been terrible at running the ball of late (even Taysom Hill’s efficiency has dried up), and they face a Buccaneers defense that is fourth in EPA against the rush this season. With the division on the line, expect the Saints to go all out and lean heavily on Olave in this spot, who has broken the 100+ yard barrier five times this year, and three times in his last four games. 

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Dec 21, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) carries the ball against the Los Angeles Rams in the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The second-year WR comes into this week off a game against the Rams where he posted a 91% route rate and a 33% target share. Overall, he’s seen nine or more targets in six of his last nine games. 

Despite that efficiency, his +260 odds to go for 100+ yards on DraftKings this week have an approximate 27% implied probability, giving us a nice edge to attack off his real-world performance (100+ yards in 5/13 games in 2023, 38.4% hit rate). He makes for a great player to shoot for the moon with in Week 17. 

You can tail the Olave ladder at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up for a new account below and place a first bet of at least $5!

Week 17 Bets from the Bet Tracker

Each week, the Betting Life crew puts their favorite bets and plays they have personally made for the week inside our FREE bet tracker for everyone to follow. I highlighted a few of my (our) favorites just to give you a small taste. 

Matthew Freedman Likes: Jalen Hurts OVER 0.5 INTS (+145, bet365)

  • Projection: +123.5
  • Cutoff: +140

Yes. We are going back to the well with Jalen Hurts. And I fully endorse it (and not just because I’ve tailed this bet two weeks in a row and it’s hit both times). 

As Freedman lays out in his Week 17 article, Hurts’s INT rate has skyrocketed this year, and he’s playing a Cardinals defense that may have a slight advantage against him on Sunday.

“But their 10 INTs on the season isn't terrible (the league average is 11.8, the median is 13), and they might have a theoretical edge given that HC Jonathan Gannon was Eagles DC for the 2021-22 seasons and knows Hurts better than probably any other defensive-minded coach.”

If you want more bets, don’t forget to check out Freedman’s Week 17 prop article where he mentions this play (and others).

Geoff Ulrich Likes: Durham Smythe over 19.5 rec yards (-110, bet365)

  • Projection: 27.4
  • Cutoff: 19.5 yards (-125)

He doesn’t get much recognition, but Smythe has been solid of late. The Dolphins' starting TE has seen his target share rise over the last two games (14% in Week 15, 15% in Week 16) and has seen 4+ targets each of his last two starts as well. 

This uptick in targeting has also coincided with the injury issues plaguing the other Dolphins WRs (mainly Tyreek Hill, who was out in Week 15). With Jaylen Waddle now ruled out against Baltimore, I fully expect this trend for Smythe to continue and for him to post another productive game in Week 17. 

You can tail the Smythe over at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below and place your first bet of just $1!

Bets from the group chat