The group chat three-way parlay record moved to 5-8 on the year after we went 2-1 on our picks in Week 17. The Packers covered gloriously and Joe Mixon blew his carry total out of the water, but the Rams decided attempting FGs was not for them in Week 17 and we missed on our kicker prop. Even with the loss, we’re up +15.68 units overall since this started (assuming one unit bet per parlay).
After going 2-1 on individual plays last week, we are now at 27-11-1 on the individual props and bets posted in this section for the year (pretty good!).
- Week 6 recap: +543 ✅
- Week 7 recap: +721 ❌
- Week 8 recap: +666 ❌
- Week 9 recap: +549 ✅
- Week 10 recap: +647 ✅
- Week 11 recap: +560 ❌
- Thanksgiving recap: +522 ❌
- Week 12 recap: +413 ✅
- Week 13 recap: +593 ❌
- Week 14 recap: +508 ❌
- Week 15 recap: +216 ✅
- Week 16 recap: +515 ❌
- Week 17 recap: +529 ❌
As always, we have three separate plays from three different sources for our parlay below (you can play them separately, or put them all together and ride the three-way parlay).
If parlays aren’t your thing, we also have the weekly ladder targets as well. Good luck!
Week 18 Group Chat Parlay
Mark Drumheller likes: Falcons under 19.5 team total (-105, BetMGM)
- Play to: -115
Any chance we get to fade Arthur Smith I will take. As Mark explains, the Saints-Falcons game has the right recipe to end as a boring, low-scoring affair.
Dec 10, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London (5) catches a pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
“The Atlanta savior (Taylor Heinicke) went 19-30 and 3 picks last week against a decent Chicago defense and I'm betting we see more of that against a Saints defense that ranks Top 5 in both EPA per play and rushing success rate allowed… A divisional rivalry game with loser goes-home implications between Arthur Smith and Dennis Allen SCREAMS CONSERVATIVENESS.”
Matt LaMarca likes: Michigan -4.5 (-105, BetMGM)
- Play to: 4.5 (-115)
From LaMarca himself in our FREE Bet Tracker:
“Michigan has been a top-10 team on both sides of the ball, and they're arguably the best defense in the country. Washington's offense has yet to face a unit like this, and if they can't score 30+, I don't think they have a chance to cover."
Geoff Ulrich likes: Justin Fields over 27.5 pass attempts (-115, BetMGM)
- Projection: 31
- Play to: 28.5 (-115)
Fields has been dropping back more than usual this season, but his props have been somewhat slow to catch up. The Bears' offensive rush rate in 2023 is at 48% (3rd highest), which is a full 8% lower than it was in 2022 (56%) when the Bears had the highest rush rate in the league.
Fields has now gone over this total in four of his last five starts and faces a Packers team whose offense has been humming of late. I don’t expect Chicago to be conservative in their last game of the year—in a spot where they can knock out a division rival—so the over (which is favored by our projections) has a lot of appeal.
Putting it all together: +595, BetMGM SGP
- Falcons team total under 19.5 (-105)
- Michigan -4.5 (-105)
- Justin Fields over 26.5 pass attempts (-128)
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!
Week 18 Ladder Plays
Ladder bets are where you spread your unit allocation over different milestones.
The idea is to access bigger payouts while maintaining some exposure to the higher probability outcome lines as well.
The Week 18 ladder targets are below.
Jahmyr Gibbs rushing yards - Lions (BetMGM)
- 75+ rush yards (+188)
- 80+ rush yards + anytime TD (+380)
- 100+ rush yards (+500)
I’m already playing Gibbs’s over in our pick’em tracker on Fantasy Life but also love betting his alternate lines this week on BetMGM.
Gibbs’s odds to go for 100+ rush yards (+500) have him sitting with a 16.6% implied probability, but he has gone for 100 yards rushing in two of his last nine games. Further, if we add a TD prop in with an 80+ yard bet in the same game parlay feature, we can get solid +380 odds that he hits both. Gibbs has nine TDs in his last 10 games and scored twice against Minnesota in Week 16. He’s also gone for 80 or more rushing yards twice in his last three starts.
Dec 24, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (26) runs the ball against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
The Vikings still have a shot at the playoffs but it truly feels like their season ended last week. Their defense allowed over 5.05 yards per carry to the Green Bay Packers' RB unit, which was mostly led by the nearly 30-year-old Aaron Jones.
The Lions have also been prepping for this matchup like it’s a regular game (even though they have little chance to move up in seeding) and feel likely to give Gibbs a decent workload. Giving Gibbs the ball not only keeps Jared Goff from getting hit, but it also gives Gibbs a shot at hitting 1000 rushing yards for the season, a total he’s 85 yards away from.
I like playing for the upside and “laddering up” on Gibbs as a rusher in Week 18.
Drake London receiving yards - Falcons (bet365)
- 75+ yards +350
- 100+ yards +900
- 125+ yards +1650
London has been a boom-or-bust type of player from a production standpoint all season. The second-year pro has gone for less than 50 yards on seven occasions but has also eclipsed the 75-yard mark four times in 2023. He’s also gone for over 100 yards twice and had a massive 10-catch, 172-yard game against another division rival in the Buccaneers back in Week 14.
The Saints are a tough pass defense but have been more prone to giving up big plays since losing top cornerback Marshon Lattimore before Week 9. Without Lattimore in the lineup, London was able to post a 5-catch, 91-yard game against the Saints, which to date has been his third-biggest output (from a yardage standpoint) of the season.
There is reason to think he can do one better this week too. The Falcons seem likely to have trouble running the ball in this spot as the Saints' defensive front has allowed just 4.0 yards per carry over their last three games and ranks 5th in success rate vs. the run on defense.
London (who currently sits at 864 yards) is also within reach of his first 1000-yard season, so certainly if he gets off to a good start, the incentive for him to keep playing hard and earning for targets down the stretch will be there (regardless of game script).
Of course, the main attraction here is the odds. Since London’s prop opened so low this week (44.5 receiving yards), there are massive odds available at the 75+ / 100+ / 125+ yard milestones. With Atlanta set as the underdog, and potentially being forced to drop back more late in this game, I like playing through all of them and hoping London is in a position late to aim for that 1000-yard mark and cash each leg of our ladder bet for Week 18.
You can tail the London ladder bet at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below and place your first bet of just $1!
Week 18 Bets from the Bet Tracker
Each week, the Betting Life crew puts their favorite bets and plays they have personally made for the week inside our FREE Bet Tracker for everyone to follow. I highlighted a few of my (our) favorites just to give you a small taste.
Matthew Freedman likes: Josh Allen OVER 0.5 INTS (-110, bet365)
- My Projection: -124.4
- Cutoff: -120
I’ve featured a couple of INT props from Freedman in this section the last two weeks, and since they hit on both occasions, I figured why not do the same for Week 18.
As the man explains himself, it’s not hard to get to the over in this spot for Allen:
“Allen has 16 INTs in 16 games this year. If not for Sam Howell (19), Allen would be the league leader.”
On top of Allen being a turnover machine, he’s also dealing with a different Miami defense than he saw in Week 4.
“The Dolphins are dealing with significant injuries on defense and will probably be without No. 2 CB Xavien Howard (foot), but they still have 10 INTs in nine games since Ramsey returned in Week 8.”
If you want more bets, don’t forget to check out Freedman’s Week 18 prop article where he mentions this play (and others).
Geoff Ulrich likes: Lions -3.5 (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to: -3.5 (-120)
The Vikings' defense, once regarded as a strength of their team, has also regressed of late and got shredded last week for 175 rush yards by Green Bay’s running backs (5.05 YPC). They now face the Lions' rushing attack, which is 3rd in EPA per rush since Week 10.
Indoors is also the place to trust Detroit, and specifically Jared Goff. Goff is 24-8 ATS playing in a dome for his career and is also 12-4 ATS after a loss when the next game is played at home (via The Action Network).
Nick Mullens is also a turnover machine and is now 6-12-1 ATS for his career as a starter. Detroit should handle their business this week.
You can tail the Lions at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!
