Welcome to Week 2 of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where I elicit as much information as I can from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week. It’s really a selfish endeavor as I’ll be using some of their plays to offset my own losers. 

Anyways, back to the bets. A couple of these were given to me with some great info alongside them. Some were merely degenerate suggestions. We’ll break them all down below and see how many are worth playing for week 2. 

Jordan likes: Tee Higgins over 59.5 yards

Honestly this one makes plenty of sense. As Jordan laid out in the chat, the Ravens' secondary is in shambles. SHAMBLES. 

Marlon Humphrey is out, Marcus Williams is out, and Joe Burrow is pissed (I’m assuming). The goose egg from week 1 by Higgins was shocking, but he’s in a great spot to bounce back. He started slow last year as well but rebounded with a 71-1 game against Pittsburgh in week 2. 

History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme. - Mark Twain (Jordan)

Matt L likes: Rhamondre Stevenson 100+ yards, 2+ TDs

Matt’s been killing it in the Fantasy Life bet tracker this year, so when he pipes up, we should probably listen. 

Matt LaMarca

And all joking aside, I can see this happening. 

In the Sunday Night Betting Breakdown for week 2, I laid out the case for Stevenson to go over his rushing prop as the Dolphins' rush defense got crushed in week 1. He still saw the bulk of the snaps and carries in week 1—despite ceding some work to Ezekiel Elliott. 

Stevenson found the end zone twice on just one occasion last year, but he did go over 100.0 yards rushing twice. You can currently get +1550 on a Rhamondre 80+ yard rushing game with 2 TDs over on BetMGM. 

You can tail the SGP that pays out roughly 15/1 on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in Bonus Bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below to get started!

Jake likes: AJ Dillon over 18.5 receiving yards (-120, BetMGM)

Leave it to our resident improv/TikTok master and all-around hilarious person Jake Trowbridge to give the most well-reasoned pick.

“I’m in on AJ Dillon over 18.5 rec yards

He avg 34 rec yards in the games Aaron Jones has missed”

I mean, do I even need to write anything else? The Packers won’t have a true WR1 either if Christian Watson sits out as well, so expect Dillon to be worked diligently in the passing game—an area he has improved in since coming into the league. 

Geoff/Matt F. like: Geno Smith over 12.5 rushing yards (-120, BetMGM)

Alright, since I got no pushback from Matthew Freedman on our prop pod this week when I brought this up, I’ll assume we’re good to include him on this one too.

Smith is a more mobile quarterback than people give him credit for and went over 20 yards rushing eight times last year. 

Geno Smith

Sep 10, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) looks to pass the ball against the Los Angeles Rams during the first half at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

The Lions brought great pressure last week and forced Patrick Mahomes into six scrambles. Smith is missing two starting tackles this week, and with the Seahawks as 4.5-point underdogs, he could also see some prevent defense at the end of this game (aka, openings for cheap rush yards). 

Our projections like this one too with Smith having an 18.2 rush yard projection for week 2. 

Thus ends the portion of our group contributions. However, if you want a little bit more degeneracy I do have a couple more ideas for you—and they involve hitting up some explosive players in good spots for this Sunday. 

Ladder Bets

Ladder betting is a strategy that involves targeting alternative lines and portioning out your units across various milestones. This allows you to benefit when a player goes WELL over his initial O/U total and ends up crossing various yardage or statistical markers that will have much bigger odds of hitting. 

Here are a couple of names I like targeting for ladder bets in week 2. 

Jahan Dotson 50+/75+/100+ receiving yards 

Dotson is an explosive receiver who had a 95% route participation rate and 25% team target share for the Commanders in week 1. He’s elusive and fast and is capable of breaking off big plays in a hurry that will get him over both his 42.5 over/under for the week and potentially the 100-yard marker. 

Last year he went over 50 yards in four of his final five games and went for 105 yards on just four catches against the Giants in week 15. This week he’ll face a Broncos secondary that doesn’t have a ton of depth outside of Patrick Surtain. Secondary corner Damarri Mathis got torched all week 1 by Jakobi Meyers, and Dotson should see plenty of him this week. 

You can find Dotson for 50+ (+100), 75+ (+345), and 100+ (+850) yards on DraftKings. 

Bijan Robinson 25+/50+ receiving yards 

I like the setup for Bijan Robinson to potentially post some big yardage numbers this week. The Green Bay defense got let off the hook a little in week 1 by the Bears, who were having plenty of success against them with their RBs at various points in the game. 

Chicago running backs caught 11 passes for 80 yards against Green Bay, and by all accounts Robinson is going to feature heavily for Atlanta in the passing game this season. He posted an elite 77% route participation rate in week 1 against Carolina and a 35% target share. Even if his targeting goes down, Robinson has far more explosiveness than all of the Bears' RBs combined, so one deftly organized screen pass may be all he needs to go off against this weaker linebacker crew. 

You can find Robinson to go for 25+ (+150) and 50+ (+650) receiving yards on DraftKings this week as well. 

Bets from the group chat