Bets from the Group Chat Week 3. Target the Over for Tank Dell.
Welcome to Week 3 of Bets from the Group Chat.
This is where I elicit as much information as I can from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week.
It’s really a selfish endeavor as I’ll be using some of their plays to offset my own losers.
Let’s get to it…
Tank Dell Over 3.5 receptions (+130 BetMGM)
One of the more under-the-radar stories from Week 2 was the emergence of Dell as a near-every-down player.
He led the team in targets and had a snap rate above 80%. Further, Dell was productive. A 70% catch rate with a TD and 72 yards is a nice day all things considered, especially from a receiver playing in just his second NFL game.
The setup for this week also reeks of another 40+ pass attempts from CJ Stroud. Denzel Perryman, Jalen Pitre, Tavierre Thomas, and Derek Stingley are all out for Houston on defense, and they’re +8.0 underdogs in Jacksonville.
On a side note, it might also be a good time to fire up Calvin Ridley overs.
Dell would be my primary target, though, for props. Despite the heavy usage in Week 2, his reception total remains at just 3.5 and the over has been sitting at heavy plus odds since release—rare, as overs tend to get bet more heavily and often end up with heavy juice.
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Adam Thielen Under 17.5 longest reception (-105 BetMGM)
Objectively, this is one of those lines that makes no sense. Thielen enters this game with a 5.58-yard aDOT and a seasonal line of 9 rec. for 66 yards (7.33 yards per catch for the math guys). Despite playing over 85% of the snaps in each of the Panthers' first two games, his longest reception on the season is just 15 yards.
Thielen’s a pure possession receiver at this point and has never ventured much past 10 yards over the line of scrimmage on any of his routes in 2023. For betting, I would rather be on the side of that not changing in Week 3 than the opposite (Thielen finding the fountain of youth on his way to Seattle).
The Panthers also have a plethora of young receivers, like Laviska Shenault Jr. and Terrace Marshall, who they may start giving more snaps as they try to improve on their 4.1 yards per play mark—second worst in the league.
Milestones and Alternative Lines
With these we’re looking at players who have big enough upside that if they do go over on their regular totals (O/U) they may end up doing so by a large margin—and cashing these milestones at big odds…
Jared Goff 300+ yards (+250, Bet365)
The Lions' run game looks like a shell of its former self this week. Starting RB David Montgomery (thigh) is out, and they are also missing two starters from their O-line in G Taylor Decker and OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai.
Given that Jahmyr Gibbs will be on the field more this week out of necessity, you have to think there will be a few more first-down passing plays called to try to take advantage of his natural ability in that part of the game.
Seattle Seahawks defensive tackle Quinton Jefferson (77) rushes Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) during the first half at Ford Field, Oct. 2, 2022. Credit: Kirthmon F. Dozier / USA TODAY NETWORK / USA TODAY NETWORK
Atlanta has been solid as a secondary this year, but they’ve also faced a couple of the league’s more underwhelming passing offenses—including the Panthers in Week 1, who are second-to-last in yards per play.
Goff is the best pocket passer they’ve faced to date, and it may surprise you to know that he’s actually gone over 300 yards passing now in four of his last eight games.
Considering the implied probability on +250 is only around 29%, it looks like a solid alternate line to take a shot with in Week 3.
Michael Pittman 75+ yards / 100+ yards (+130 / +335, BetMGM)
This one admittedly depends a lot on the weather. Right now Tropical Storm Ophelia could impact a few of the games on the East Coast this week, with rain and winds exceeding 20 mph making it poor conditions for passing.
If that’s the case, you can simply cross this one off your list and move on. Or, perhaps pivot to a Zach Moss 100+ yard rushing prop (+410, betMGM).
However, if this game gets delayed or it looks like the storm misses this area (or the game), then Pittman is a ripe target to take on his alternate lines. He’ll be facing a secondary that got beat for a big game (8-89-2) last week by another big boundary WR in Tee Higgins and that will again be without two starters in CB Marlon Humphrey and S Marcus Williams.
You’ll have to watch the weather on this one, but if the skies stay clear and the wind is down, taking Pittman for 75+ and 100+ yards (a feat he’s accomplished four times in his short career already) has merit this week.
Rachaad White 50+ receiving yards (+1125, Bet365)
What we’ve seen from the Eagles' defense so far in 2023 is that they are going to be tough/near impossible to run on—but may be exploitable to an extent through the air. The Eagles have only allowed 3.4 yards per rush attempt against thus far but rank just 21st in yards per attempt against.
Further, the Patriots exploited their pass rush in Week 1 with a good pass-catching back in Rhamondre Stevenson, who ended the game with 6 rec. and 64 yards. White’s an excellent pass-catcher himself, and in Week 2 the Buccaneers began to use him more as a receiver (5 rec. 30 yards) to counteract their own O-line issues (2.9 ypc on season).
Don’t be shocked if White ends up with a big target share again and potentially pushes for the same kind of line that Stevenson posted in Week 1. At these kinds of odds, he’s certainly worth a small play for Monday Night.
Quick Hitters from the Fantasy Life Free Bet Tool
In case you didn’t know, we also have a Free NFL Bet Tracker up on Fantasy Life as well. It’s FREE and there are always bets (with reasoning) posted for every game/slate.
- Matt LaMarca likes: Steelers' money line
- Matt Freedman likes: Tyler Allgeier over 41.5 rush yards
This makes plenty of sense.
Atlanta’s offense has a ton of scripted run plays every week, and Allgeier hasn’t gone under this number since Week 10 of 2022.
- Geoff Ulrich Likes: Jordan Love over 0.5 Ints
Love has had it easy thus far, facing a couple of poor secondaries and D-lines who aren’t good at bringing pressure.
He’s also had a couple of passes dropped by defenders.
The Saints' secondary is a step up in class.
