Welcome to Week 4 of Bets from the Group Chat.
This is where I elicit as much information as I can from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week.
It’s really a selfish endeavor as I’ll be using some of their plays to offset my own losers.
Let’s get to it…
Logan Thomas Over 2.5 receptions (+105 BetMGM)
On top of getting plus money to take the over on Thomas, the Eagles have been a terrific matchup for opposing TEs. They have good boundary corners that tend to push the action toward the middle of the field, and the TE can also act as an outlet for teams against Philadelphia’s pass rush.
We saw the Commanders pepper Thomas with targets in Week 1 against a surprisingly good Cardinals pass rush in much the same manner. Thomas had a 25% team target share in Week 1 against Arizona (the only full game he’s played thus far) and an 86% catchable target rate (7.0 yard ADOT).
Thus far, Sam Howell has been reluctant (or unable) to throw the ball much downfield to his wide receivers and has directed 31% of his targets to Washington’s TEs. While Thomas may lose a few targets to his backups, at that rate there should still be enough work for him to go over on this small total.
Arizona Cardinals +14.0 BetMGM -110
I think the Arizona Cardinals may be the most misunderstood team in the NFL. Yes they’re 1-2, but they were more than competitive in their first two games and easily could have come away with victories in both (in which case they’d be 3-0 and likely closer to +7.0 this week).
Since Week 1, Joshua Dobbs has looked more and more at home as the starter for Arizona (remember, he started Week 1 with about 4 days of prep). In Week 3 he posted the fifth-best QB rating of the week, showed better upside as a rusher (6 carries, 55 yards) and has been far more efficient as a passer than he was expected to be, to date.
The Cardinals can run the ball (5.6 YPC as a team, second-best in league) and their offensive line has been stellar in that part of the game. As a team, Arizona ranks out second in creating yards before contact per rush on the season.
The 49ers have been below average as a run defense through three weeks (21st in rush DVOA) and they may also be down two key offensive players (Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell - questionable). It’s enough to make this huge +14.0 point spread on the Cardinals an attractive bet for Week 4.
You can tail these bets on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!
Milestones and Alternative Lines
With these, we’re looking at players who have big enough upside that if they do go over on their regular totals (O/U) they may end up doing so by a large margin—and cashing these milestones at big odds…
Roschon Johnson 50+ / 75+ rushing yards (+255 / +1000 DraftKings)
The Johnson breakout is coming. The rookie has been the Bears' most efficient rusher on the season, averaging 5.29 yards per carry, and has seen his usage rise every week. He’s slowly sneaking his way up on Khalil Herbert in the early down carry department.
The Broncos struggles at this point on defense are also well known. They are last in defensive DVOA and allowed a hellacious 8.1 yards per carry against the Dolphins. The Bears have nothing to lose at this point and would likely be well served by giving their rookie more touches. Everything seems to be aligning here from a usage and matchup standpoint to make Johnson a great alternate/milestones target in Week 4.
Tutu Atwell 75+ / 100+ receiving yards (+240 / +600 DraftKings)
I’ve written about this spot numerous times already this week. Despite having a great matchup against the Colts' secondary (7th most yards allowed to opposing WRs) and a 14.3 yards per reception mark, his O/U totals for Week 4 are far below teammate Puka Nacua—a difference that doesn’t really make sense given how good he has been at making big plays.
You can take the over on the regular line of 51.5 yards (I did) but if you want to play for the big game, I really like the +240 (75+ yards) and +600 (100+ yards) lines you can find for alternate totals on DraftKings. The Rams are 6th in pass play percentage and both of these teams are top 10 in plays per game. It’s a combination of a potentially great game environment and longer odds, on an undervalued player, that makes Atwell a fantastic alternate line target for Week 4.
You can tail Johnson and Atwell on DraftKings, where you can also get $200 in bonus bets when you place an initial $5 wager. Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!
Quick Hitters from the Fantasy Life Free Bet Tool:
In case you didn’t know, we also have a Free NFL Bet Tracker up on Fantasy Life as well. It’s FREE and there are always bets (with reasoning) posted for every game/slate.
Matt LaMarca likes: Courtland Sutton over 4.5 receptions
This one has lots of appeal. Here’s the injury list for the Bears going into Week 4.
Three starting DBs are out and CB Kyler Gordon is already on IR. Gross.
Sutton has a 24% target share on the season and has been far more efficient in Sean Payton’s scheme than he was all of 2022. The plus-money odds on this number are very attractive.
Matt Freedman likes: Dalton Kincaid over 2.5 receptions
Another TE in a great matchup. Not only do the projections have Kincaid as a strong over target but Miami has allowed the 9th most receptions against to the position.
Geoff Ulrich likes: Mac Jones over 32.5 pass attempts
I mentioned Jones as a viable target in the Week 4 prop pod this week. The Patriots averaged 48 pass attempts per game between weeks 1 and 2—both games they entered as underdogs of 3.0 points or more.
Dallas hasn’t been great stopping the run this year, but the Patriots are also below average in offensive rush DVOA and 23rd in yards per carry as a team. Jones is likely to be slinging it at a high rate again in Week 4.
