For this week’s bets, I’ve focused on a couple of key spots for prop betting by looking at some potentially undervalued players who have big breakout opportunities in Week 5.

These are based on both bets and player props I’ve made in our Free Bet Tracker this week.

However, on top of the “regular” props I’ve posted, for this article, I’ve also put together some more degenerate (better?) ways to play these situations, as well … if you’re into that kind of thing (you are). 

The Breece Hall “payback” game. 

Payback is a great movie. Mel Gibson taking on an entire Mob-fortified building simply over the principle of being shorted a “mere” $70,000 is a great premise (OK, he was nearly killed by the same people at the start of the movie, but that’s neither here nor there). 

This week feels like Hall’s payback moment. While he can’t put the blame on any specific person for his unfortunate injury—it was a very ordinary play—I’m also quite sure the irony of the situation this week (same team, same stadium where he suffered the injury) has not been lost on him. 

Anyway, back to the bets. I love Hall’s longest rush prop, which is set at an exceedingly low 16.5 yards. He’s gone over this mark now in eight of his last 11 games and that stretch includes:

  • A game against Denver last year where he took 4 carries before tearing his ACL. 
  • Four other games where he took 8 or fewer carries.

However, while single-play props are fine, this is a special player we are talking about, and a historically bad defense. 

In short, playing for a monster day from Hall, on multiple angles, is very warranted. 

We can get Hall to go for 100+ yards on BetMGM’s Milestone lines at +390, which I like.

However, much like Mel Gibson’s Payback character of Porter, a part of me doesn’t think that Hall will necessarily be satisfied with “just” 100 yards. That’s why I went to the same game parlay builder and put this together: the Payback special. 

Parlay

If this hits, expect a “Lethal Weapon” SGP in this section for Week 6. 

The Dalton Kincaid “I’m still here” game. 

I mentioned Dalton Kincaid this week on the Betting Life prop pod and also have a bet on him up in our Free Bet Tracker for over 3.5 receptions at +155 odds. Playing Kincaid over on receptions is absolutely fine, but us degenerates who want more upside (and don’t mind more risk) certainly can take this a step further.  

Kincaid is taking on a Jaguars defense that has allowed the second-most targets against to opposing TEs on the year and has also allowed TDs to the TE position in two of four games. 

For the year, Kincaid has also gone for four or more receptions three times, and the Jaguars make for the perfect matchup for Buffalo and Josh Allen to start looking his way a little more often downfield—and in the red zone. 

On BetMGM we can play for a big Kincaid week by using their SGP (same game parlay) tool that allows us to parlay together the over 3.5 rec. with over 29.5 receiving yards and a TD (+475). Considering the matchup and how well the Buffalo offense is clicking (3rd in offensive DVOA), Kincaid’s breakout should come soon, and playing for a big day against Jacksonville makes plenty of sense at these kinds of odds. 

Parlay

The Greatest Show on Turf, Part Deux. 

  • Rams +4.5 (-115, BetMGM)
  • Matthew Stafford 300+ yards (+165, Bet365)
  • SGP: Rams +4.5, Over 50.5, Stafford over 329.5, Nacua over 69.5 rec. yards, Kupp over 69.5 rec. yards, Swift over 89.5 rush yards, Swift anytime TD (+10000, BetMGM)

The closer we get to kick-off, the more I like the Rams. They are getting their heart and soul back in Cooper Kupp and may still be underrated by the overall marketplace, who had this now 2-2 team pegged with a 6.5 win total to start the year. 

The Rams are 18-10 SU with Kupp in the lineup since 2021 (in games he’s started and finished), and they would be adding him to an improved WR arsenal which now also includes star rookie Puka Nacua. 

The Eagles' defensive line remains stout, but they were lucky in many ways to escape with wins in three of their four games—and needed overtime to finish off what Justin Fields exposed as a very overrated Commanders side. Trend-wise, betting against Jalen Hurts on the road has been a solid proposition, as he enters this week just 8-13 ATS in away games for his career. 

Matthew Stafford

Oct 1, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) drops back to pass the ball in the second quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

I already played the Rams at +4.5 early in the week but am looking at more ways to get exposure to the overall upside of their players in this game, against what has been a very lethargic Eagles defense to date. 

Matthew Stafford quietly sat at second in total passing yards entering Week 4 and is facing an Eagles defense that sits 16th in yards per pass attempt against. Opponents facing the Eagles this season have averaged 279 passing yards per game (two of the four QBs they have faced have gone for over 315 yards), and opposing offenses have also averaged a stout 41.0 pass attempts (fourth-most of any team in 2023). 

We can play the plain old overs on Stafford, but instead of paying juice on his 276.5 total, I like going to the alternate lines and looking at him crossing 300+ yards (+165) for a much better payout. If this game stays close, the Eagles' ferocious run defense and the Rams' passing efficiency should see him sail well over this total. 

I would be remiss if I didn’t at least mention the fact that the Eagles' offense is also playing in this game (4th in yards per carry) and will be up against a weaker defensive line that has allowed 4.4 yards per carry against (24th in the league). 

The elements for a back-and-forth, high-scoring game are there. 

Parlay

Obviously how Cooper Kupp integrates back into the lineup will have a huge say in how a bet like this will go, but I can’t see the Rams simply cutting Puka Nacua out of the passing game. The more likely scenario is they both wreak havok on a beleaguered Eagles secondary and push this game to be a higher-scoring, back-and-forth affair. 

However you slice it, Rams-Eagles has game-of-the-week appeal, which means playing for the stars on both sides to have monster days is well-warranted. We may be entering a new Rams bull market way sooner than anyone expected and bets like these allow us to buy in on that experience early.

You can tail these SGPs at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to take advantage of the First Bet Offer and start betting TODAY!

Bets from the group chat