Welcome to Week 7 of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where I, Geoff Ulrich, elicit as much information as I can from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week.
It’s mostly a selfish endeavor so I can use their plays to offset my own losers.
Before we get to the bets, a little self-promotion.
A lot of the information and bets were arrived at by using our free betting tools. Pages like our player prop table can let you see right away where our projections see the biggest edges for the week and can be very useful in helping make decisions for betting and fantasy every week. Make sure you check them out after you’re done reading.
Just like last week, we’ll take the three best bets (decided by me of course) and make a nice three-way community parlay for us to sweat as a group.
While we will certainly have some losing weeks as we go, last week started off hot!
Week 6 recap: +543 ✅
It’s always nice to start with some momentum, and this week the parlay will have some fresh faces in it (the pressure is on guys!). The picks for this week are below.
LaMarca likes: Buccaneers -2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
- Play to: -2.5 (-115)
Matt LaMarca was absolutely distraught last week when I left his Seahawks bet out of the group parlay.
My spidey senses were tingling on Joe Burrow, though, and leaving LaMarca out of Week 6 allowed us to cash the first parlay of the year.
But I’d be dumb to leave Matt’s bets out every week. He’s been crushing college football among other things, and this week he has the same take on the Buccaneers/Falcons game as myself.
Desmond Ridder has not been a good player to back on the road. For his NFL career, he’s 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, and for what it’s worth he also had a losing ATS record on the road in college as well (per The Action Network).
The Buccaneers are nowhere near perfect, but have a top-12 rush defense and will likely force the Falcons to beat them through the air. Atlanta is 1-3 in their last four games, a span in which Bijan Robinson has been held under 50 rushing yards three times.
Offensively, the Bucs will be up against a defense that ranks 29th in sacks on the year. Baker Mayfield’s best week came against another team that struggles in the sack department when he threw for 317 yards (9.32 YPA) against the Bears.
It may be gross, but I like the Bucs to win and likely cover this game as well.
Freedman likes: Steelers Moneyline (+140, BetMGM)
- Play to: +135
The second leg this week comes from another Matt, Matthew Freedman, who I had circled for some kind of crazy under on a team’s WR4 or backup TE.
Instead, he surprised me and gave me a straight moneyline play on the Steelers.
I admit, I like the Rams' vibes, and they have been outperforming, but they’re also just 3-3 SU and have losses against the 49ers and Eagles at home already—two teams with winning records and above-average defenses (in overall DVOA rankings). The Steelers fit both of those criteria (3-2 and 11th in overall defensive DVOA).
As Matt pointed out himself, the Steelers are out of a bye this week and getting healthy.
I am on board with this one.
The Rams have a tough schedule ahead and may be a good target in the futures (win total) department after Week 8, but for now, I don’t think picking against them as favorites (with a top defense on the other side) is a poor idea at all. Steelers moneyline gets our second spot.
Geoff Likes: Rhamondre Stevenson over 12.5 receiving yards (-120, BetMGM)
- Fantasy Life aggregate projection: 16.9 rush yards
- Play to: over 13.5 (-115)
Yes, I am selfishly taking the last spot again. When you hit a Zach Wilson over (that does not involve INTs or soccer moms) you deserve a second act.
This week, I am once again targeting a terrible offense in the AFC East and going with Rhamondre Stevenson to smash in the receiving yards department.
Nov 18, 2021; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; NFL New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson (38) straight arms Atlanta Falcons safety Duron Harmon (21) during the first quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Despite the Patriots' ineptitude on offense, there is a lot to like about this prop. Stevenson in Week 6 posted season highs in route rate (59%) and target share (20%) and this week will be taking on a Bills defense that has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing RBs.
It’s worth noting that Stevenson averaged 5.5 rec. and 26 receiving yards against Buffalo last year and that the Bills are also without their best cover LB in Matt Milano. Not good for Buffalo, but very good for Rhamondre the receiver.
Let’s hope for a fast-paced game with plenty of dump-offs.
Week 7 group parlay: +721 (BetMGM)
- Buccaneers -2.5 (-115)
- Steelers Moneyline (+140)
- Stevenson over 12.5 receiving yards (-120)
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!
More Group Bets (from the Bet Tracker)
Mark Likes: Eagles -2.5 (-115, BetMGM)
Mark Drumheller gave us the gift of the Raiders under on their team total last week (which was a pretty big sweat thanks to some late-game Mac Jones blunders) and is back this week with another AFC East fade.
As he notes in the bet tracker, while the Dolphins' offense is scary, it is in a tough spot this week on the road against the Eagles' rush defense.
“PHI def ranks #2 in explosive runs allowed. Miami's defense ranks 30th in EPA per rush allowed. The Eagles success on the ground will make life easy on Hurts and open up the offense. Philly's interior pass rush should give the Dolphins problems. I will take Philadelphia under the key number of 3 off a loss.”
I have gone back and forth on this game all week. However, it is worth noting that the Eagles got really good news on the injury report this Friday. T Lane Johnson (ankle), once expected to miss multiple games, practiced in full Friday and will play. Darius Slay and Jalen Carter are both back this week as well. It’s a near-all-systems-go spot for the Eagles.
The trends here like Philadelphia as well.
Tua Tagovailoa is just 9-10-1 ATS for his career on the road, while Jalen Hurts is 14-6-1 ATS at home. This game will be fun, but the Eagles may be out to prove a point after the Jets loss and will have their main horses back to achieve that goal if desired.
Jordan/Freedman Likes: Raheem Mostert over 51.5 rushing yards (-115, BetMGM)
Jordan Fiegleman (of Week 6 Salvon Ahmed fame) dropped this one in the chat yesterday and it immediately stood out to me. That’s because it was discussed on our Week 7 prop pod where Matthew Freedman pointed it out as one of his favorites for the week as well.
Mostert, for the season, is averaging 5.7 YPC, and for his career is averaging 5.4 YPC. As Freedman noted on our pod this week, that puts him firmly in “Bo Jackson territory.”
Career leaders in YPC average (500 attempts or more), courtesy statmuse.
The worry this week for Mostert is twofold:
- It’s the Eagles, and as we pointed out above, they have a good rush defense.
- Jeff Wilson Jr. is back.
Both of these are valid concerns, but what we have to understand for betting is that Mostert’s Week 7 prop total has already been adjusted for a lot of these circumstances.
Mostert has averaged 13.0 carries and 78.4 yards a game over the last four games and has a projection of 61.1 yards in the Freedman model on our site this week.
It’s certainly possible the Eagles dominate the game and potentially force the Dolphins to abandon the run (as the Bills did) but siding with Mostert’s insane efficiency has been profitable this year, and seems likely to be the right side again this week.
