Bets from the Group Chat Week 8. Climbing the Ladder with DK Metcalf.
Welcome to Week 8 of Bets from the Group Chat.
If you’re tailing our group parlays from this segment, we’re now 1-1 after just missing out on the Buccaneers -2.5 last week. Overall, the plays are 5-1.
- Week 6 recap: +543 ✅
- Week 7 recap: +721 ❌
Despite the loss you would be up a solid 4.43 units if you were tailing us with a unit allocation to date. This week, we’re back for more and have another parlay AND a ladder bet for Week 8.
Week 8 Group Parlay
Mark Drumheller Likes: Cardinals +9.5 (-110, BetMGM)
- Bet until: +9.5 (-120)
I don’t know if I will have the stones to bet the Cardinals but I have to admit, that is where I am leaning as well.
It’s a tough spot for Baltimore (traveling West, coming off a huge win) and Lamar Jackson is just 19-28 ATS for his career as a favorite of -3.0 or more.
Matthew Freedman Likes: Steelers Moneyline (+110, BetMGM)
- Bet until: +105
Freedman has found the terrible towel hidden deep inside his closet (under all his Cowboys garb) and is waving it frantically for the world to see. The Steelers won for him last week and he gave us some great trends that make the Steelers appealing again for Week 8:
“This is a classic spot to back Steelers HC Mike Tomlin (per Action Network):
Tomin at home: 75-62-4 ATS (7.1% ROI)
Tomlin as underdog: 57-31-4 ATS (25.7% ROI)
Tomlin as home underdog: 18-5-3 ATS (46.8% ROI)”
Jordan Fiegleman Likes: Cam Akers over 7.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)
- Bet until: 8.5 (-110)
- Aggregate projection: 12.4 rec yards
I wrote about Akers a little on Twitter (X) this week myself. He had his highest snap rate of the year last week (39%) and his route rate doubled over Week 6 (27%), while Alexander Mattison’s declined.
The Packers have allowed 8th most receptions and 9th most receiving yards to opposing RBs.
Parlay: +666 (BetMGM)
You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!
Week 8 Ladder Plays
Ladder bets are where you spread your unit allocation over different milestones.
The idea is to give yourself a better chance at hitting some bigger payouts while maintaining some exposure to the higher probability outcome lines as well. You can learn more about ladder betting strategy here.
The Week 8 ladder targets are below.
DK Metcalf over 51.5 yards -110 / 75+ yards +230 / +100 yards +540 (BetMGM)
- Bet until: 75+ yards (+215) / 100+ yards (+500)
Metcalf missed last week but returned to practice Wednesday and is not on the injury report.
He faces a Cleveland secondary that is coming off its worst game of the season where they allowed 12.5 yards per attempt and three different Colts WRs to go for 50+ yards (Downs 125, Pittman 83, Pierce 53).
Playing into our thesis is also the fact that Tyler Lockett is banged up (questionable - hamstring) which could mean more targets for Metcalf. Metcalf has hit 100+ yards in four games with Geno Smith (17.4% hit rate) and the implied probability on +540 odds (100+ yards) is right around 15%, so there is a little bit of value showing.
Ultimately, I think the circumstances have created a nice explosion spot for Metcalf. I already played him over on his regular line early in the week but playing for the big payouts through +75+ and 100+ yards is very warranted.
Seahawks -6.5 +130 / -9.5 +210 / -13.5 +333 (bet365)
- Bet until: -6.5 (+120) / (-9.5 +200) / -13.5 (+300)
Speaking of the Seahawks, they remain one of my favorite spread bets for the week but the line has moved on them dramatically from -2.5 opening the week to -4.0 in spots.
If the market is right here and this ends up being a Seahawks romp then we could see Seattle cover by a lot more than just the 4.0.
Don’t forget that Cleveland is being led by former XFL legend PJ Walker this week who now has zero passing TDs in his last 64 pass attempts and who has averaged 5.6 yards per attempt, a 50% completion rate, and thrown 3 INTs in the last two games.
Dec 4, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf (14) runs the ball against Los Angeles Rams cornerback Derion Kendrick (6) during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Seattle’s defense lagged a bit to start the year but they have been one of the best units in the league over the last few weeks. They’re up to fifth in sacks (despite playing one fewer game) and over their last three weeks have allowed just 4.1 yards per attempt against (best in the league).
If Seattle gets a lead they could suffocate the ailing Browns offense and turn this one into a laugher. Betting the Seahawks through some bigger key numbers this week is warranted.
You can tail the Seahawks ladder on bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of $1 or more!
DeVonta Smith 70+ yards +210 / 80+ yards +310 / 90+ yards +450 / +100 yards +650 (DraftKings)
Just like Metcalf, Smith is another great elite WR to buy low on, and potentially ladder bet through some key numbers in Week 8. I highlighted him already in the best bets article for Week 8 and specifically called out his 100+ yards prop on DraftKings.
“Over the last 26 games he’s played for Philadelphia, the third-year player has gone for 100+ yards seven times (26.9% hit rate) but has only breached that 100-yard barrier once in 2023…
He’s a mammoth +650 on DraftKings to go for 100+ yards (a 13.33% implied probability – far lower than his hit rate over the last 26 games) and he faces Washington. The Commanders' secondary has allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt over the last three weeks (second worst in the league) and will likely be hyper-focused on ensuring AJ Brown (9-175-2 against WAS in Week 4) doesn’t clown them again.
Smith himself went for 8-169-1 against the Commanders last season and looks like a great target for alternative line betting in Week 8.”
Smith isn’t as linear in his production as other elite WRs but it’s worth remembering that he also went for over 100 yards for Philadelphia in four of five games at one stretch last year. Betting he rebounds from a slow stretch to post a big game – against a terrible secondary – isn’t a poor idea at all now that his totals have shortened and his alternative line odds have skyrocketed in spots.
You can tail the Smith ladder on DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place an initial bet of at least $5:
Bets from the Bet Tracker
Geoff Ulrich Likes: Breece Hall anytime TD (+130, BetMGM)
In a very selfless act, I left my own play out of the group parlay this week – although my DK Metcalf pick remains one of my favorites and is our featured ladder bet.
Another prop I likely would have considered if the guys hadn’t come through with three great plays of their own was this one with Breece Hall.
There is a lot of ways to play this game and if you do think Hall scores a TD – or has a big day – then simply betting on the Jets -3.0 is likely the lower variable play.
I like that bet as well, but also recognize that +130 on Breece Hall to score in this spot is potentially a great value.
While many other lead RBs like Kenneth Walker (-105) and D’Andre Swift (+105) are favorites this week their TD odds are far smaller. Hall also has a better matchup than either of those aforementioned names (and potentially a better matchup than any other RB on the slate).
It’s a good time to go TD hunting with the Jets lead back.
Matthew Freedman Likes: Justin Herbert over 9.5 rushing yards
We talked about this prop in the Week 8 prop pod and Freedman also mentioned it in his Best Props of the Week article for Week 8.
“I’ve talked about this for weeks now: The prop market tends to be too low on pocket-passing QBs who still have good mobility -- like Herbert.
This year, he has averaged 13.3 yards per game with a median of 14, thanks to his increased willingness to turn dropbacks into runs (per our Utilization Report).
- 2023: 7% scramble rate
- 2023: 3% scramble rate
Every QB with decent mobility to start against the Bears this year -- so everyone except for Kirk Cousins and Brian Hoyer -- has gone over 9.5 rushing yards.
I won’t dive into this one too much but I also highlighted Herbert this week in the Week 8 TD props as a great anytime TD play – for many of the same reasons. He’ll be in a great spot to produce some yards and hopefully a score as a runner Sunday Night.
