Betting Odds and Picks for the 2024 PGA Tour Championship

The Tour Championship is upon us; the final event of the PGA regular season where an incredible $25 million will go to the winner and an even more incredible $100 million worth of “bonus” money will be dished out to all the participants. 

Last week saw Keegan Bradley turn back the clock and record yet another victory (his seventh on the PGA). Bradley’s win is all the more poignant as he was just chosen to lead and captain the USA team at the next Ryder Cup in 2025, and will also be an assistant captain for the USA at the President’s Cup in October. He’s now 10th in the President Cup standings as well and seems very likely to be chosen as one of the Captain’s picks, making him a potential playing/vice-captain. 

For betting, we were able to sneak out some profit as both Taylor Pendrith (top 20) and Sam Burns (top 10) hit some solid placings at decent odds. However, it could have been a much bigger week with Burns missing a playoff by one stroke and Pendrith just finishing outside of cashing a +600 top-10 bet. 

Still, we’re very positive from a betting perspective over the last nine events (up over 35 units) and will try to end strong at the final stop of the 2023-24 season. I won’t have as many outrights on the card due to the reduced field but, like last week, will try and find some good placing value in other markets to take advantage of.

Most sportsbooks will also be offering two markets this week, the “with starting strokes market” and the “overall strokes” or “gross strokes” market. The ladder market tracks the number of strokes players take without counting the starting strokes handicap. Make sure you’re mindful of the odds and which market you are placing bets in before hitting send this week. 

Side note: If you’re looking for picks for the upcoming NFL season, be sure to follow our FREE NFL bet tracker which already has plenty of futures bets up to consider. 

The field this week is cut down to 30 players and every player will have a starting stroke handicap. I laid out the complete starting list with starting strokes for the field below.

Here’s how the last three Tour Championships have played out and where each winner started from a handicap perspective. 

2021 – Patrick Cantlay (+225) -10 starting strokes

• Cantlay won the week prior at the BMW and came into the Tour Championship as the one seed.
• He dueled with Jon Rahm and held him off down the stretch

2022 – Rory McIlroy (+900) -4 starting strokes

• McIlroy came in as a lower seed, starting at -4 for the week. 
• He finished T8 at the BMW the week prior
• He shot the best gross score overall and was able to overcome Scottie Scheffler on the final day to take down the event and FedEx Cup. 

2023 – Viktor Hovland (+600) -8 starting strokes 

• Hovland won the BMW Championship the week prior and came in as the number two seed overall.
• He won the event at -27 and shot 19 under for the week, finishing five strokes in front of second place Xander Schauffele

I went over the course and some betting trends on Monday in the early week Tour Championship course preview. If you haven’t familiarized yourself with East Lake yet, I recommend you do so. It’s been newly renovated and not likely to play the same as it has in past seasons.  

Today, though, I’m honing in on specific bets and creating a weekly betting card, which I’ll summarize at the bottom of the article. Before we get to the good stuff, here are a few more notes about the 2024 Tour Championship to keep in mind.

• It’s a 30-man field with no cut line; all 30 players will get in four rounds
• Two of the last five versions of this event have been won by someone who started at -4 or -5
• Three of the last five events have been won been won by players starting at -8 or -10. 
• Since the #TourChampionship starting stroke format began in '19, the top 3 at the end of the week (with starting strokes) have included at least one player from the -2 to -4 starting range, every season.

Betting Odds for the 2024 PGA Tour Championship

2024 Tour Championship (starting strokes) Top 10 names in betting odds (DraftKings):

2024 Tour Championship Best Bets

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. I’ve created an entire card you can peruse at the end and also added unit sizing for each play. 

While I have a handful of outright plays I do like playing many of these names in the placing department, or as matchup plays as well. I’ve also included placing options for some names if you want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

For odds, I’ve also used the best options available at the time of writing so you know where to look and what to look for. 

Additionally, if you can make each-way bets (win and place bets in one) then I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant. 

For more information on how each-way bets work, you can click here. 

Sam Burns Outright (without starting strokes) (+2000; FanDuel)

• Top 5 with starting strokes (+330; FanDuel)

Burns gave it a good go for us last week and I'm prone to go right back to him to see if he can’t break through for what would certainly be a career-defining win.

He’s been gaining strokes on approach every week and still has some room for improvement off the tee. The wider fairways at East Lake should help and he finished very well at Pinehurst in June, landing a T9 there, on another Donald Ross design that had been opened up off the tee boxes, to seemingly benefit bigger drivers of the ball.

Burns also just seems like a great fit for this format. He’s an elite birdie maker (3rd in BoB% over the last 24 rounds) who has won four times on the PGA already with his last win (Colonial 2022) coming in the form of an epic Sunday takedown of world #1 Scottie Scheffler.

Momentum is a huge thing in the playoffs with two of the last three winners of the Tour Championship (Cantlay ‘21 and Hovland ‘23) having won the week prior at BMW Championship. Burns certainly has some now, having finished top five in each of the first two playoff events.

The American doesn’t have a top starting position (he’ll start at -4) but he seems like he may be able to replicate some of Rory McIlroy’s past magic, who won this event out of the -4 starting slot in 2022.

For betting, taking him as the low gross score (to win without starting strokes) seems like a great way to get exposure to his upside, while the top 5 (with starting strokes) also gives us a good number and a fallback option should one of the top players outduel him for low gross at the end.

Hideki Matsuyama Outright (with starting strokes) (+1200; FanDuel)

I wrote up Hideki Matsuyama as the early bet in the Course Preview this week. He was available at +1400 on Monday but his number has fallen since then so at the very least we have secured some good closing line value by hopping on him early.

Matsuyama’s short game has been in elite form all season and his putter seems to have woken up at just the right time. As I mentioned on Monday, the injury issue (WD, lower back) is likely keeping his number this week bigger than it would have been had he put in another big performance at the BMW.

“There is no doubt that Matsuyama (who did get a couple of extra days to prepare) is a risky play, but the injury factor has also created a nice opportunity with his current odds sitting at +1400 (FanDuel). I would also argue that the risk of another withdrawal, potentially isn’t as large as it would seem on the surface.

Thanks to his win at the St. Jude, Matsuyama had lots of comfort room last week from a seeding perspective. Even after his withdrawal he still managed to enter East Lake 3rd in the FedEx Cup standings. However, this week is a different story. With so much money on the line (1st gets 25M) it behooves everyone who got a spot in the field to try and gut it out for all four rounds.

Matsuyama is also no stranger to quick bouncebacks. The BMW was technically his first WD of 2024 but in past seasons he’s never hesitated to leave an event already in play if he feels even a slight discomfort. In 2022 he withdrew from the Valero Texas Open the week before the Masters and promptly finished T14 at Augusta the next week. In 2021 he withdrew from the Rocket Mortgage and then finished T2 (playoff loss) in his next start a few weeks later.”

Matsuyama hasn’t been as consistent, but he’s played the most high-level golf in 2024 of anyone not named Scottie Scheffler or Xander Schauffele. He’s too good to finish his career with just one big victory and grabbing a Tour Championship would help cement his legacy as one of the best international players of all time. 

Tour Championship Longshots and Placing Bets

Billy Horschel Top 10 with starting strokes (+330; FanDuel)

Horschel has played fine golf for most of the season. He grabbed an early season win in Punta Cana and then rallied in brutal conditions at the Open Championship to give eventually winner Xander Schauffele a great run and post a career-best T2 finish.

He’ll start the Tour Championship at -1 but has played well in the first two playoff events, gaining over 2.0 strokes on approach at both TPC Southwind and last week at Castle Pines, where he finished T13. 

Horschel has a great career record at East Lake as well, having won this event back in 2014; when the event was still played as a regular stroke play tournament, with no starting handicaps. The changes to the course will take away some of his experience advantage but with him gaining significantly on approach over his last few starts – and also off the tee and around the green – I’m happy to play him for a top-10 placing.

The bottom line, he’s playing better than several of the names starting in front of him, and as a veteran, of both this course and event format, he should be able to make up some ground and push for another solid finish.

Tommy Fleetwood Each Way 1/4 Top 4, with starting strokes (+8000; bet365)

• Tommy Fleetwood Outright without starting strokes (+2000; FanDuel)

I couldn’t let the very last event of the season go without sneaking in one more bet on Tommy Fleetwood, who remains winless on the PGA Tour, despite another couple of close calls this season.

Like Horschel, Fleetwood enters playing solid golf but will start well back at -1. His ball-striking has been superb over the last two events, though, and he’s gaining significantly off the tee, which has been a hallmark of recent winners at East Lake.

After a T22 at St. Jude where he lost over 7.0 strokes putting (which was by far the worst putting performance of his career on the PGA), he managed to improve significantly in that area at Castle Pines gaining 1.4 strokes putting for the week.

It’s a big ask for him to gain back nine strokes over four rounds but, as noted above, we have seen several players from the -2 starting slot move up into the top five by week’s end. With the changes to the course and firm greens, this venue could also just play completely chaotic, which may help a player like Fleetwood, who typically excels in tough conditions.

On top of the each-way bet, which provides some placing exposure, I also like adding him to our Burns outright in the “without starting strokes category”. He’s still very playable at +2000 or bigger there given how well he’s striking it, and it’s a number he’s often gone off at in larger fields this summer.

Full Card: 

• Sam Burns +2000 outright (no strokes) .5 units  | Top 5 (with strokes) +330 .6u
• Hideki Matsuyama +1200 outright (with strokes) 1.0u
• Billy Horschel +330 Top 10 (with strokes) 1.0u
• Tommy Fleetwood +8000 each way top 4 (with strokes) .2u / .2u | +2000 outright (no strokes) .5u