Betting Odds and Picks for the 2024 Wyndham Championship: Targeting a 65-1 Outright Winner

The PGA regular season comes to an end this week with the Wyndham Championship. The Wyndham is a last-chance event for players who have yet to crack the top 70 to get themselves into the FedEx Cup playoffs – which start next week. It’s an event that takes place at a venerable but mostly antiquated venue in Sedgefield Country Club, a course that has produced a lot of longshot winners over the last decade or so, many of whom have been 40+ years of age. 

For betting this week, I’m keeping a relatively open mind. We have a betting favorite in SungJae Im who hasn’t won a PGA event in well over a year and names like Jordan Spieth who are still looking for form late in the season. 

Favorites have never done well at this event and with some wet and potentially stormy weather on the way, looking to spread exposure over a bigger group of longshots this week is how I’m looking to build my betting card. 

For some perspective, here is how the last three Wyndham Championships have played out. 

2021 – Kevin Kisner (+3300) -15

• Won in a six-man playoff, gaining 3.9 strokes on approach for the week
• Had a poor start at the Open a couple of weeks prior but finished T8 and T5 at the Rocket Mortgage and Travelers in July
• Had finished top 10 at Sedgefield in three of the prior four seasons before his win

2022 – Tom Kim (+3500) -19

• Was his first time ever playing Sedgefield; gained an incredible 12.5 strokes putting for the week and shot 61 in Round 4
• Played the week prior, finished T7 at the Rocket Mortgage, gaining 6.3 strokes on approach
• Is only winner of the past decade who hadn’t played course at least once before winning this event

2023 – Lucas Glover (+8000) -20

• Had finished T6 or better in three of his previous four leadup events; and had gained 4.0 strokes or more on approach in all three of those starts
• Had played Sedgefield 14 times prior
• Gained 9.1 strokes on approach for the week but lost strokes around the greens

I went over the course and some betting trends on Monday in the early week Wyndham Championship course preview. If you haven’t familiarized yourself with Sedgefield Country Club yet, I recommend you do so. It’s an older Donald Ross-designed venue that has produced a ton of low-scoring in the past.  

Today, though, I’m honing in on specific bets and creating a weekly betting card, which I’ll summarize at the bottom of the article. Before we get to the good stuff, here are a few more notes about the 2024 Wyndham Championship to keep in mind.

• It’s a 150+-man field with the cut line taking place after Friday. The top 65 players and ties will make the weekend. 
• The event is the final regular season event of the year; only the top 70 players and ties in the FedEx Cup standings will get to play the St. Jude next week.
• Three of the last five winners of this event had odds of +8000 or bigger, and two of them were over 40 years of age. 
• The forecast calls for a ton of rain this week which may potentially even wipe out play on Thursday.

Betting Odds for the 2024 Wyndham Championship

2024 Wyndham Championship Top 10 names in betting odds (DraftKings):

2024 Wyndham Championship Best Bets

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. I’ve created an entire card you can peruse at the end and also added unit sizing for each play.

While I have a handful of outright plays I do like playing many of these names in the placing department, or as matchup plays as well. I’ve also included placing options for some names if you want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

Additionally, if you can make each-way bets (win and place bets in one) then I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant. 

For more information on how each-way bets work, you can click here. 

Aaron Rai Each Way 1/4 Top Five (+3500; bet365)

Rai was one of the first players on my mind this week when the odds came out. Just a few starts ago he was as low as +2000 to win the John Deere Classic, an event where he gained 8.9 strokes putting and finished T7. The Englishman had a terrible Open (T75) but his odds have ricocheted back into the +3000 range for the Wyndham, where I think he’s much more playable with another weaker field on tap. 

Rai’s performances at Sedgefield (MC, T71) are nothing to write home about but considering he nearly won on another Donald Ross-designed venue last month in Detroit, it’s not a huge concern, either. The technical course should fit him well over the long term as he’s a very accurate iron player who comes in ranked first in GIRs gained and fourth in fairways gained, over the last 24 rounds. 

The 29-year-old should be rested after taking two weeks off and has outperformed several of the names he’s priced around; many of whom feel like they are getting priced at shorter numbers simply through name recognition. With some rain in the forecast, Rai’s experience navigating wetter conditions in Europe should also play to his advantage this week and it’s worth noting that his lone European Tour win came in Scotland back in 2020, on a dreary week on the links. 

Eric Cole Outright (+6500; Fanduel)

• Top 10 (+600; Fanduel)
• Top 20 (+280; Fanduel)

Cole’s irons have come back to life over his last few starts. He gained 0.65 strokes on approach per round at the Open and 3.2 strokes at both the Deere and the Rocket Mortgage. He’s also 5th in proximity from 100-125 yards and 8th in Birdie or Better % over the last 24 rounds.

The 36-year-old paid off for us a few starts ago at the John Deere with a solid Top 10 finish there, on another shorter venue, and is available at an even bigger price in the outright market for the Wyndham, an event where he finished T14 last season; gaining 8.8 strokes on the greens alone.

While he’s the sort of veteran who has found success at Sedgefield, long-term, his history of stalling out a place or two away from the win also makes him the perfect player to ladder through the top 10 and top 20 placing markets.

There are more quality names ahead of him this week than were at the Deere, but he’s also solidified his form since then with more quality starts, so at the moment there is no premium baked into his number. As long as that’s the case, he makes for an easy add for me at a venue like Sedgefield.

Nicolai Hojgaard Each-Way 1/4 Top Five (+5000; bet365)

I’ll admit, I am taking a bit of a leap of faith with Hojgaard, a bigger hitter off the tee who has only played this course once. However, considering the poor win rates of some of the betting favorites this week I don’t think anyone can be too critical of me for looking further back in the pack for some value on a great young player.

Hojgaard has booked at least one professional win in each of the past three seasons and not too long ago went off at +1600 in a PGA event (Corales) where the field wasn’t too dissimilar to the one we’re getting this week. He’s also gained multiple strokes on approach in four of his last five starts and popped for a big 7th place finish in France last week.

I wrote more about him in the early week course preview but think he’s a player capable of replicating some of the success we’ve seen from recent Sedgefield winners like Tom Kim and Si Woo Kim, who were also under 25 years of age and looking to book their first PGA win.

Wyndham Championship Longshots and Placing Bets

CT Pan Each-Way 1/5 Top Eight (+7500; bet365)

The 32-year-old didn’t have the greatest weekend in Paris, but still managed a T18 at the Olympic Games. He’s been a little up and down this summer but ranks out a strong 16th in my model and is just two starts removed from a T2 finish at the John Deere Classic.

Pan opened around +10000, but even at the +7000 level, he’s a player I had a hard time ignoring. He’s played the Wyndham five times prior and has gained strokes on approach at Sedgefield on all five occasions, posting a career-best T2 finish at this event back in 2018.

He and my early week favorite, Nicolai Hojgaard, carry a little tail risk from being at the Olympics last week (aka jet lag) but also look relatively discounted because of that. Abraham Ancer rode a top 20 finish at the Olympics to a PGA win just seven days later at the FedEx St. Jude in 2021 and Pan, who won the bronze medal in that same Olympics, is someone I could see replicating that feat this weekend.

JJ Spaun (+11000; FanDuel)

• Top 10 (+900; Fanduel)

Spaun comes in ranked 5th in SG: Approach stats over the last 24 rounds, and 11th in my overall model this week. For a player who is currently available as big as +11000 in the outright market, and fits the profile of many past veteran winners at Sedgefield, that number was too big to pass up.

Overall, he’s gained an average of 5.2 strokes on approach over his last three starts and finished T10 at the Donald Ross-designed Detroit Golf Club just last month. Spaun’s also played Sedgefield six times before and while he’s yet to contend at this event, his current form and history at similar courses (T2 Sea Island; T3 El Camaleon) suggest he may break that trend in 2024.

Matthew NeSmith Each-Way 1/5 Top Eight (+16000; bet365)

NeSmith’s odds look like a bargain this week. The 30-year-old has posted two top-10 finishes over his last two PGA starts and gained 7.8 strokes on approach alone at the ISCO Championship, an event where he finished T2 and had multiple chances from inside 15 feet to win his first-ever PGA event.

NeSmith is accurate and has been showing confidence with his putter, gaining over a stroke on the greens in three of his last four starts. Even though he’s never contended at Sedgefield he fits the profile of a player who should find success at this event and it’s worth noting that his two runner-up finishes on the PGA TOUR came at Hurstbourne Country Club (ISCO) and TPC Summerlin (Shriners) – courses where recent Wyndham winners Jim Herman (2020) and Tom Kim (2022) have also won.

His placement odds are sitting around +3200 if you each-way him to eight places on bet365, making him my favorite longshot of the week.

Full Betting Card for the 2024 Wyndham Championship

• Aaron Rai +3500 Each Way Top 5 0.6 / 0.6
• Eric Cole +6500 0.20 / Top 10 .35 / Top 20 +280 .45
• Nicolai Hojgaard +5000 Each Way Top 5 0.5 / 0.5 
• CT Pan +8000 Each Way Top 8 0.25 / 0.25
• JJ Spaun +11000 0.20 / Top 10 +900 .55
• Matthew NeSmith Each Way Top 8 +16000 0.20 / 0.20