In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
Avengers Assemble: Everyone’s favorite Hall of Fame NFL coach, bubbly media personality, and Jerky Boys fanboy stormed back into the news yesterday.
Eight-time Super Bowl champ Bill Belichick returned to the gridiron to head up the University of North Carolina.
… Wait, what?
I know, there’s a massively dumb look on my face as well. Well, there is a bit of history there — Bill’s father, Steve Belichick, spent three years as an assistant coach at UNC from 1953 to 1955 before his three-decade run at the United States Naval Academy.
Despite 135 years of existence, there’s no real pedigree for Tar Heel football success, so we’ll see if The Hoodie can turn around a mediocre program with just two top-18 finishes in 25 years.
Being smack in the middle of NFL betting season, this fell outside my purview so I used my phone-a-friend lifeline on the potential skinny in betting markets. Luckily here at Fantasy Life, we have access to the very best college football mind, all-around great guy, and freshly-minted Mock Drafter Thor Nystrom. My fellow Avenger preceded his already glowing reputation by taking some personal time away from defending Asgard late last night to chime in with some initial reactions.
From a macro perspective, Thor says we're, “in uncharted territory, Belichick wants to run the program like an NFL organization.” He also stressed an expectation for top-down turnover with so many moving parts in a short amount of time, “Omarion Hampton is going to the NFL. Guys are going to hit the portal. Bill brought in Michael Lombardi as the program's GM. They're going to have to fill the rest of the staff quickly and figure out how to attack that portal.”
Not to grab Thor’s coattail too tightly here, but reticence in jumping on this bandwagon feels prudent. Even if I were extremely bullish on UNC’s acquisition for the long haul, I personally temper suppositions when combining inexperience with such massive undertakings.
As a selfish degenerate, of course, I was more (only) interested if I could leverage any of this into a +EV move to line my pockets a little before the holiday. We have to read between the lines a little, but I think we can. Regarding an anticipatory feeling for the public’s reaction Thor states:
“I expect Belichick's name to matter in recruiting. As far as the public ... Yeah, this is huge. It's a big deal. UNC is going to get a ton of publicity from this. Bill has an aura. And he's now well-liked because of the Brady roast and TV work. He could have a Coach Prime effect on the portal if he wants to get aggressive with it. UNC is going to be all over the national broadcasts next year. There will be the same kind of effect that we got with Prime in Year 1 at Colorado. Public fascination factor.”
Did somebody say lofty public expectations? I don’t know how to spell it, but I just did that famous Tim Allen grunt. College football betting lines for next season haven’t gone live just yet as CFB determines its champion, so just keep your antennae up. I fully expect the masses to start smashing the over and move it up a full game — where hopefully we’ll be waiting to short it to the downside.
Happy Thursday to all of you from everyone here at the Betting Life Newsletter! Don’t be shy, contact me anytime on X @JohnLaghezza with questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you! We’re here to help!
Make sure to check out our NFL Odds page, and you can also use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines for Week 15’s action!
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- TNF Blitz: Thursday Night Football Preview
- The New York Prop Exchange: You Look Purdy Tonight
- Sharp Hunter: Where to look on TNF
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
💸 In desperate need of Bowl confidence pool help? We have you covered.
🥣 Thor broke down all the bowls with Claudia Bellofatto earlier this morning. It is marvelous to watch them work.
🏈 Gene Clemons and I give you our Week 15 start/sit recommendations. We go deep. “Start Tyjae Spears” deep, people!!
🎁 Still holiday shopping? We have a gift guide. It’s awesome.
🎄 Here’s the full Muppet Family Christmas on YouTube — with commercials!! Tis the season!!
TNF Blitz💥🏈—Thursday Night Football Preview
Thursday Blitz, Rams (7-6) at 49ers (6-7): I’m done beating the joke about good football on Thursday into the ground. Let’s just be grateful that for all intents and purposes, the postseason’s here. Two bitter rivals duking it out for a tightly contested NFC West division and a shot at the crown. The math’s still up in the air but I’d call it highly probable it’s the western crown or bust for all four teams.
While mathematically possible to jump into a Wild Card spot over Washington, the Commanders’ schedule’s much easier running the intra-divisional gauntlet out east. Also worthy of note—no team currently holds a +.500 conference record, which is the second tiebreaker, allowing for a leapfrog in the case of a tie in wins and head-to-head.
None of the usual pushback from me today on the elevated 49-point game total. Get your popcorn and kids’ earplugs ready for the monster fireworks display. San Fran entered the season as a Super Bowl favorite, so seeing them succeed shouldn’t shock us despite the rash of injuries and misfortune. The thing is, SF’s way better than their losing record may suggest. Their +80 net-yard differential this season ranks second behind only the Eagles—and they’re the only team on that list over 20 with fewer than eight wins.
The Niner offense continues to chug along even as star players jettison to the dreaded blue tent. Rational coaching matters. And there’s very little to bash Kyle Shanahan on the field for, he's the man. That said, Shanny’s killed bettors of all stripes with borderline malpractice regarding injury reports. Next up is the curious case of Isaac Guerendo.
The fourth-round rookie left a professional football game with an injury that required an MRI just four nights ago. Coaches confirmed a foot sprain and that there was “no shot” he could play if the game were Tuesday. Well, now it’s gameday. Guerendo did manage a limited practice Wednesday after two straight DNPs and now we’re being told he’s playing. Nothing more comforting than a player telling you he feels great (eye roll). First, it was Christian McCaffrey, then Jordan Mason and Deebo Samuel. I’d be careful trusting this staff and relying on Guerendo—they already showed you they’ll send someone out onto the field in no condition to play.
Find me another passing attack more fun to watch operate than these Rams when the triumvirate of Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp join forces. They’ll face one less obstacle in star DE Nick Bosa who still hasn’t practiced since injuring his oblique against Seattle in Week 11. Without Bosa, San Fran’s played very passive, blitzing less in that span than the entire league except for Buffalo. Relying on deceptive pre-snap zone looks instead works great stylistically against inexperienced QBs like Caleb Williams—but this Matthew Stafford we’re talking about. With their backs against the wall, the 1-2 Nacua/Kupp combination should be too much to stop.
How Does The Model Feel About TNF?
The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—You Look Purdy Tonight
THE BET: Brock Purdy Over 20.5 Completions (+100; DK)
My favorite props bets are always the easiest to explain. One more loss for San Francisco and the fat lady’s singing in a red and gold dress. I mentioned expecting the Niners’ offense to succeed briefly, but it’s the Rams D we’re attacking as the worst unit on the field tonight. I’ve had LAR near the bottom of the league on the defensive macros alone, ranking bottom-5 this season in yards/play (5.8), EPA/play (-0.07), average drive distance (35.1), time of possession per drive (3:01), and scoring success rate (46.3%).
Sean McVay and Chris Shula run a plethora of mixed zone packages, featuring a ton of Cover-3 and Cover-6 intended to confuse the QB. The thing is, Brock Purdy’s style of play matches up perfectly. The once Mr. Irrelevant excelled against zone coverage all year—+0.32 EPA/attempt, 102.6 passer rating, 73.1% Completion, and 9.6 yards/attempt. Wow, those are all top-shelf by any comparison.
If L.A. sticks to its recent guns, they’ll be playing soft underneath to avoid the big splash play—where we hopefully can take advantage of high percentage throws to avoid relying too heavily on a hobbled RB room.
Make sure to check out our Player Projections to compare:
Where Are The Sharps Leaning For TNF?
- By Mike Mutnansky
- Source: Sharp Hunter
For many of us, it’s playoff time in fantasy football.
No byes in Week 15—but now we do get a late-season Monday Night Football doubleheader.
It’s a BIG week, for sure.
If you want to know where the sharp money is going, you better be locked into Sharp Hunter, where we track bets from thousands of sharp bettors daily. Not just in the NFL, but CFB, CBB, and the NBA too.
The NFL action starts Thursday Night in the NFC West when the 49ers host the Rams in a game with major playoff implications.
We’re looking at a game with a consensus line of San Francisco -3. The total was anywhere from 48.5 to 49.5 on Thursday morning, so make sure you get the best line if you're betting it.
The public has been firing on the over here all week, with some websites suggesting almost 80% of both the bets and the money heading into Thursday has come in on the over after the Rams' high-flying win over the Bills on Sunday … and the 49ers bounce back against the Bears.
Maybe the public being so heavy on the over is one of the reasons the sharps like the under here. We’re showing a strong Three-Bag Sharp Score on UNDER 49.5.
I’m betting the under with the sharps here.
Yes, the Rams' offense just went off on Sunday, but that’s the point—they emptied the proverbial tank against the Bills a few days ago. Matthew Stafford and his stud WRs were awesome. But now they have to wheel back and play an important divisional game on the road. This one is outside in Santa Clara, where we expect overcast skies with light rain: the Rams will not get the indoor/fast track for this one.
The Rams were 11-of-15 on third down Sunday … it seems unlikely they will be that 🔥🔥🔥 again Thursday converting those third downs.
Meanwhile, the 49ers stomped the Bears at home and we’re able to get QB Brock Purdy back on track. But they’re still banged up—no Trent Williams in this one.
As for the pace, SF has played slow all season. When you look at FTN’s sec/snap metrics for neutral-pace situations, the 49ers have been the slowest team in the NFL in 2024—and they’ve played 20% SLOWER over the last two weeks! Their 92 offensive plays in the last four weeks are the fewest by any team in the NFL.
Playing slow should come in handy in trying to keep the Rams' offense off the field Thursday night.
A trend in our favor—When the total is over 44.5, divisional unders after Week 11 have hit at a 59% clip over the last 300+ such games.
This is a great way to kick off Week 15. It should be a fun game and the public loves this game as a shootout.
The sharps at Sharp Hunter have different ideas and want to bet the under.
I’ll be betting with them.
