In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Bleacher Nation Fantasy:
Monday Night Lights, BUF (3-2) @ NYJ (2-3): Feels like a return to the scene of the crime. The Bills and their freshly circled wagons head for MetLife Stadium to face Gang Green, owners of a rather ugly two-game losing streak.
Not sure if I should be thanking the schedule makers, but we have the rare occasion of football over Bluey or Taylor Swift concert videos on the TV tonight (yes, my 9-year-old wants a Travis Kelce jersey for her birthday).
Anyway, I was there … three hundred and ninety-eight days ago. In the world’s most patriotic sporting display since Hulk Hogan beat the Iron Sheik at the Garden in ‘84, ripping down the rafters—Aaron Rodgers and an oversized Old Glory brought palpable hope back to Jet fans. Finally, rational QB play to complement an objectively good defense created our best chance to end the longest active playoff drought in major North American sports (trombone sound).
We know how that ended—four glorious offensive snaps and 83,000 audible groans later … We were all Jets fans again.
Giant Kelly-green crocodile tears aside, an actual football game is being played. In a single word, it’s ugly. The Jets’ defense continues to deliver as promised, ranking top-3 in points allowed, yards/play, EPA/play, drive distance, completions, completion rate, passing yards, and touchdowns. Not too shabby.
Meanwhile, the Bills’ passing offense can only be described as slow and ineffective. Granted, Josh Allen’s a one-man wrecking crew—but they’ve taken a serious step back through the air. Buffalo is bottom-3 in dropbacks, attempts, and completions, with only a 60% completion rate for 181 yards a game. Yikes, not exactly the picture of efficiency. Expect 20th-century-style trench warfare tonight in New Jersey.
Who knows what we’ll get from the home team tonight? It’s really a wait-and-see atmosphere. In true Jets fashion, they removed play-calling duties from Nathaniel Hackett (thank goodness), but will keep him in a lead role from the booth (deep sigh). Those duties now belong to Todd Downing, who coordinated a Titans offense that finished 30th overall and 28th in points scored last season. All we can hope for is Rodgers finally challenging the defense downfield, I believe that unwillingness hurt them all year.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Look Into My Crystal Ball
- The Grand Total
Look Into My Crystal Ball🔮—Allentown
I laid out the beginning of my case above why I’m expecting a bunch of nothing tonight on MNF—and we didn’t even get granular on the NYJ offense. The macros border on unthinkably bad: 4.5 yards per play, 3.6 yards per rush, and 5.9 yards per attempt. In fact, Aaron Rodgers’ YPA is worse than Will Levis, Daniel Jones, and Justin Fields. Yikes. I get the Jets shook up their clipboard carriers but are we really projecting a high-octane performance? The answer is a resounding no, and that’s a foundational piece of tonight’s play.
Again, this game is going to be decided in the trenches at the interior line. As good as the Bills’ defense played so far as a unit (+0.07 EPA/play), their inability to stop the run (5.2 YPC) will be another issue if you’re hunting overs or explosives tonight. You can hear the clock ticking away already.
Everything is screaming dogfight—so when the going gets tough, Josh Allen gets going. Trying to replace Stefon Diggs with Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman continues to look like a total whiff at this point. As the reliability in the Buffalo pass-catcher room wanes, Allen’s willingness to take off on his own increases.
Doesn’t take a JP Morgan technical analyst to mark the bullish channel trend in Allen’s rush output (below).
Plus, the Jets are top-5 in pressure rate to flush him out AND James Cook didn’t practice all week until a limited session Saturday. Let’s go.
THE BET: Josh Allen Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-115) MGM
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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 The Betting Life Show features Freedman and LaMarca revisiting the Sunday slate and looking ahead to the early lines for NFL Week 7.
📺 Claudia and Thor run down Ohio State-Oregon and more of last week’s action then preview Week 8 in College Football.
🏈 How does the Jets-Bills AFC East brawl on MNF shape up on MNF? Check out our Game Model to find out.
🔮 Not to get ahead of ourselves, but the early betting lines for NFL Week 7 are out.
🤯 Will the road warriors continue a trend on Monday Night Football?
The Grand Total⚾️🔥—Over And Out
I’m not nervous, you’re nervous! Tonight sets the stage for the 2024 American League Championship series between the Cleveland Guardians and the New York Yankees. Oh boy, here we go again. I know I do a great job of separating my fandom from handicapping (I’ve always been the pessimistic Yankee fan anyway)—but once we hit the ALCS it gets dangerously close to going out the window. I’ll have you know I already paced a fresh track into my living room rug.
One of the main stories of the 2024 playoffs thus far for me has to be the lack of depth from starting pitchers. We’re all familiar with quick hooks in playoff scenarios, but it feels like we’ve had more bullpen games than normal. For reference, starting pitchers averaged fewer than 13.5 outs per start this postseason—and it should continue today.
Frankly, the pitching is sub-par for an ALCS Game 1 on standard rest. Cleveland is turning to Alex Cobb, coming off a 3-IP, 2-ER outing to face Carlos Rodón, who’s experiencing his own postseason struggles—the lefty veteran unwound after an inning or so when the Royals touched him up for 4 ER through 3.2 IP.
I’m leaning into my model’s strength tonight, forecasting scoring early. I generally don’t get algo results to the over in the postseason, but here we are. Must say I was surprised to see the first 5-inning total available at 4 even, given the tremendous disparity in starter/reliever talent in this game. This is unlike me to ever recommend juice—but if you can’t find the O4 at standard pricing, I would pay the 4.5 down to 4 on an alt total before looking to score 5 runs. Granted, 3-2 is absolutely probable but I don’t want to lose sight of the type of premiums runs come at in the playoffs.
Good luck …
THE BET: CLE/NYY F5 Over 4.0 (-115) BET365
Going Against the Grain, and the Sharps
Source: Sharp Hunter
We get an AFC East showdown Monday night with the Jets hosting the Bills on Monday Night Football.
At Sharp Hunter, we’re always looking at bets logged from sharp bettors. And our sharp bettors are on the Jets +2.5 to the tune of a One-Bag Sharp Score.
As of Sunday night, the line was anywhere from Jets +1 to Jets +2.5. Make sure you shop before you bet on this one.
The Jets are playing their first game since firing their head coach Robert Saleh. Since 2003, 38 teams have fired their coach during the regular season. Those teams are 17-21 SU and 22-16 ATS. I guess this move could boost the Jets but unlike the sharps, I’m not excited to bet on them.
The Bills defense is No. 6 overall according to DVOA rankings—and No. 7 in the NFL against the run. The Jets reportedly want to establish the run starting Monday … does not seem like a great idea against this Bills D.
Meanwhile, a James Cook injury could force the Bills to throw the ball more on Monday. That’s a good thing if you’re looking to back Buffalo. More Josh Allen passes would be a good thing for Buffalo bettors.
And look, there’s no stat I have to back this up, but what if veteran QB Aaron Rodgers doesn’t love the playcalling being taken from his guy Nathaniel Hackett?
Rodgers has been up and down this season and now we have a coaching change he may or may not have facilitated. Is he really all-in with Hackett being pushed aside?
I get it, the sharps want to back the Jets as a home dog if they can get the 2.5 points. But not for me. Too many variables after the coaching change. If I play this, it’s Bills -1 for me … even if the sharps are against me!
